The Cubs don’t have many roster questions as they enter the 2017 season, but a key one is how Joe Maddon will handle the center field spot. With the departure of Dexter Fowler to the rival Cardinals, the Cubs have far less of a sure thing in center. The current in-house options include free agent Jon Jay, current right fielder Jason Heyward, and rookie Albert Almora. While the Cubs see Almora as the center field of the future, they are certainly wary of handing the job over to him in his first full season. Instead, fans will likely see a mix of all three throughout 2017, unless someone steps up and takes the bull by the horns. A big question is whether or not Almora can do just that.
The 22-year-old Almora has a very interesting title in the Cubs organization. He is the first draft pick of the Theo Epstein Cubs era. Taken sixth overall in the 2012 draft, Almora has had an interesting path to the majors so far. While his development has been at a completely normal pace, he has been a victim of something he could do nothing about: the success of other Cubs prospects. Guys like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Javy Baez, and Jorge Soler in the minor leagues have cast a pretty long shadow over the other Cubs prospects. As a 19-year-old in A ball he posted a .329/.376/466 line, and then followed that up with a .307/.342/.480 line in the Arizona Fall League. For the next two and a half year,s he fought his way through Myrtle Beach, Tennessee and Iowa, but his defense, base-running and leadership never wavered.
The key now is how Almora will translate to the big leagues. He is a high contact hitter who will not walk very much. Throughout his minor league career, he walked just 4.3% of the time, though he only struck out 11.7% of the time. The offensive profile is actually pretty similar to that of Starlin Castro. Almora’s bat to ball skills are extremely good, and it often gets the worst of him and results in him swinging at any pitch near the strike zone rather than a pitch he knows he can drive. This shows up in his small samples numbers in 2016 as well. His 40.9% o-swing% was well higher than the league average number, which was 30.3%. His o-contact% was also above league average (69.4% vs. 63.9%). However, in his brief time in the big leagues last year (small sample size alert), he was able to put up some pretty quality numbers, with no peripherals that you would think would lead to regression.
In 117 plate appearances in the big leagues, he slashed .277/.308/.455, good for a .267 tAV. If you extrapolate his .5 WARP over 600 plate appearances, he’d be worth something in the 2.5 WARP range. Some of the numbers I tend to look at that might lead to regression are BABIP and HR/FB%. Almora’s BABIP was a completely sustainable .315 and his HR/FB% was a realistic 11.5%. While those numbers might not scream superstar, it is certainly good enough given Almora’s overall defensive and base-running profile. We all saw how good of a baserunner Almora is in game seven of the World Series, and his defense in center field would already put him among the best in baseball. While I don’t think he’s quite on the level of Billy Hamilton, Kevin Kiermaier or Kevin Pillar, he’s no more than just a slight step below those guys. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is winning gold gloves in the near future. Because of that, his bat only needs to be around average for him to be a very valuable player. Just as a quick comparison, Kevin Pillar was worth 3.8 WARP in 2015 with just a .257 TAv. I don’t think numbers like that are out of the question for Almora. If Almora repeats the kind of reasonable offensive production that he demonstrated in his brief stint in 2016, I see him taking over a good amount of starts in center by the end of the season.
Another big reason I’m optimistic about Almora’s 2017 season is something that’s tough to discuss. Here at Baseball Prospectus, we often focus many of our arguments around stats (and rightfully so). However, there is part of the game that is just really tough to quantify. This is where Almora absolutely shines. Sometimes in baseball, guys come along that just have that “it factor” and who seem destined to succeed. Almora has that and it’s a reason that the Cubs took him sixth overall in 2012. Theo Epstein has often commented about Almora’s leadership qualities both on and off the field. When I watch Almora, I get a feeling that no matter what the numbers say, he’s a guy that is just going to perform.
The key for Almora is to continue to make adjustments in his pitch selection. The problem is this is probably the single hardest adjustment to make in baseball. We saw the kind of fits it gave Starlin Castro when the Cubs tried to tinker with his approach. I am more optimistic on Almora’s ability to make those adjustments because he is such an instinctual player. He not only is a tireless worker, but he just has a feel for the game that is extremely uncommon. With PECOTA not released yet, I’ll have to use ZiPS and Steamer for projections. ZiPS has Almora at .269/.296/.393 slash line while Steamer has him at a similar .270/.301/.399. Given his defense, a .700 OPS is probably the baseline you’d want Almora’s production for him to be a useful player. With his defense and base running, that will probably come out to be about a league average player.
However, the positive thing for Almora is that he will have the advantage of one of the best tacticians in the game, Joe Maddon, to put him in the best position to succeed early on. Early in the year, expect him to see a lot of time against left-handed pitching. His splits have been all over the place in the minors, being better against righties some years and better against lefties other years, but he was better than lefties in his extremely small sample in 2016 in the big leagues. For lack of a better word, Almora will certainly be babied early with the presence of quality veteran options in Jon Jay and Jason Heyward. From there, things are pretty simple. If Almora performs, he’ll earn more playing time. If he doesn’t perform, you could see him sent back to Iowa or relegated to more of a defensive sub and pinch-runner role. Almora’s development remains one of the most interesting story lines of the season, and I predict great success for the young man in 2017.
Lead photo courtesy Jayne Kamin-Oncea—USA Today Sports