“Do not go gentle into that good night…rage, rage against the dying of the light.” – Dylan Thomas
The triple digit win total of just two seasons ago must feel very, very far away right now. Ousted from the postseason by their arch-nemesis in one season, and then missing October baseball altogether the next must feel a bit like the smack of old age being foisted upon someone still seemingly in his youth.
And then to have PECOTA stepping on your neck with a projection that puts you just one win—one—above the Cincinnati Reds, these are surely times that would try St. Louis fans’ souls.
But strangely the St. Louis Cardinals have gone on functioning almost as if none of this has happened. Whether it is that they are raging against the dying of postseason light or just casually dismissing what would beset other organizations with feelings of impending doom, they’ve persisted.
Namely, moves like plucking Dexter Fowler from the shores of Lake Michigan for a five-year deal is not the kind of transaction a team gasping for wins makes. Maybe they have pinned too much hope on the difference one player will make, but this is far from standing pat.
Some might say that the loss of Alex Reyes has torpedoed the season before it started, but maybe that’s not what matters for the Cardinals right now. The division appears to rest rather comfortably in the hands of the Cubs for the immediate future, and perhaps the best bet for contention lies a year or two from now.
But then again, the Cardinals of 2015 saw a lot of things go right that went the other way last season, so a reversal of most recent trends might have them sneering at PECOTA, rather than the other way around.
In fact, St. Louis Post-Dispatch writer Derrick Goold sees plenty of potential for the latter.
“Their pitching has to be what drives them. If the Cardinals have an edge, it’s their starting pitching, and that edge has been reduced by the absence now of Alex Reyes. The Cardinals in 2015 won 100 games on the strength of their pitching and the symbiotic relationship that had with a solid, reliable defense. Last season, the defense faltered and pitching followed.” Goold shared via email recently.
Better defense supports better pitching, and better pitching means a lot more winning, so perhaps even without Reyes, there’s still the possibility for a surprise from St. Louis in 2017.
PECOTA:
The bleak overall projected record aside (76-86), the Cardinals still have a lot of parts of the whole with room to outperform that forecast. For instance, Dexter Fowler, of the 3+ WARP for the past two seasons, is projected for just 1.6 this season. Given his improved efforts on defense of late, Fowler has room to easily upend that projection without changing much about what’s expected of him offensively.
The Cardinals otherwise have a sturdy cadre of bats, with the exception of Jhonny Peralta (0.1 WARP), who might be best if supplanted by Jedd Gyorko (0.7) at some point. Even if he’s not, the rest of the offense is well suited to pick up the slack. Up and down their anticipated lineup, there’s not a player below replacement level.
On the pitching side, even with Reyes out of consideration, Mike Leake and Carlos Martinez can still anchor the rotation rather well on their own. Even if Leake just matches what he did last year, St. Louis has nearly 2 WARP from him, and Martinez is projected to hit near that mark as well.
But it might be Adam Wainwright, who has a parade of sterling seasons under his belt, who could potentially be the biggest difference maker in this rotation. He has combined for just 1.3 WARP in the last two seasons, but he pitched only 28 innings in 2015. PECOTA likes him for 1.5 WARP this year, which would serve the rotation well.
The season probably tilts one way or the other on the axes of defense and pitching, and Goold sees some reason for Cardinal optimism there.
“For the Cardinals to maximize the ability their pitchers and the quantity of quality starts their rotation can provide, the defense has to be sharp, too. They must rediscover a run-prevention approach, and if they’re in contention at the end it will be the pitchers that benefit from that and the pitchers that lead them.” Goold said.
Goals for 2017:
For the coming year, the goals are probably simple, and although seemingly bland, they create the difference needed for the defense to properly support the pitching. Goold has a clear vision for what those goals should be.
“Crisper play and decisions, all around. In the field. Down the lineup. From the bullpen. Out of the dugout. The Cardinals have a roster that they believe should contend for the division title, and they should be held to their own standards.” Goold said.
Save the jokes about “The Cardinal Way,” Cubs fans, because these goals could easily be re-branded as “Try Not to Suck” or “Do Simple Better” and we would not notice the difference. Precision and care in the simplicity can be enough of a difference maker that a team that looks dead in the water in March rages enough to keep the lights on into October.
Long and short-term needs:
In the short term, there are answers for many of the things that went wrong for St. Louis in 2016.
“They have the answers ready and available for the lineup to have a new look, new personality, and needed success. They can stack OBP with the trio at the top and Stephen Piscotty, Jhonny Peralta, or Randal Grichuk could emerge as a cleanup hitter to take advantage of it. They have options.” Goold said.
Beyond just this season, the Cardinals are looking to establish their next core, and beyond that, the next era.
“The Pujols Era gave way to The Molina Era, and now the Cardinals are looking to see who will define the next era.” Goold said.
Cubs fans have seen plenty of being terrorized by the likes of Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, and the thought of another era of a similar ilk should induce chills. Don’t blink, because it might just be The Alex Reyes Era.
On a different plane, they have questions to answer, like filling the forthcoming holes left by Wainwright and Molina.
“What’s not clear is who really emerges as the heir to the Wainwright/Molina tandem that has been the constant for so much success. The Cardinals can have someone internally blossom, but it’s just as likely that they’ll have to go outside.” Goold said.
Off-the-radar players to watch:
Here, there are names like RHP Sandy Alcantara, who fits the mold of Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Alex Reyes in some ways and might be the next to rise from a non-roster invitee to impact pitcher for the Cardinals, and further down in the system, toolsy shortstop Eliezer Alvarez, who is currently on the Cardinals’ 40-man roster, but still a few steps away from the majors.
But the best answer here might actually lie in a player we have already seen a great deal of: Kolten Wong.
“The Cardinals have gone out of their way this winter to clear a way for Kolten Wong to start, to be in the lineup every day, and to know that there is belief in him. Bouquets have been thrown his way. Now playing time will be. This is important because Wong in a lot of ways personifies the team and style the Cardinals want to have. He’s athletic. He can run the bases. He can tighten defense. He can do a lot of the things well – at his best – that the Cardinals did erratically in 2016. Wong doesn’t need to be great at one thing or lead the team in any category, he just has to be involved and contribute in a lot of ways. His importance isn’t on everybody’s radar, and it may be subtle, but it’s necessary.” Goold said.
***
Cardinals fans have seen Chicago festooned in celebration, and this has left an understandably sour taste. For the St. Louis fans, these are difficult times.
“The general sense – and this is by no means a scientifically accurate polling – is that there is trepidation about the team. That can be a form of optimism, but it also captures the pessimistic cul-de-sac of the fan base that finds reasons for angst.” Goold said.
A fan base that finds reasons for angst. No repackaging is necessary there, just move the sentiment up I-55 to Chicago and it fits large segments of north siders rather fittingly.
“The franchise has been humbled in the past two seasons, and not just by the arrival of the Cubs as the new Kings of the Central and a threat to the Cardinals yearly hold on the division. Free agents have gone elsewhere. The hacking penalties arrived. The Cubs flew the W, and often. The Cardinals have taken their bruises, and it’s the fan base that winces.” Goold said.
As quickly as the celebrations come, the wincing can come, too. For now, Cubs fans are on the better side of this coin, but the reverse is never as far away as we want to think.
Author’s note: Thank you to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch for his help with this piece.
Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki—USA Today Sports