If the second half of Jake Arrieta’s 2015 season was a prolonged look at what the near-perfect pitcher might look like, this afternoon’s game was a throwback in more than just the uniforms. Today, Arrieta gave an eight inning glimpse at the kind of work he did on the mound at about this time a year ago. He struck out just four, but only four Oakland batters managed to reach base, and the Athletics managed a runner in scoring position just twice.
His counterpart, Sonny Gray, would have not long ago conjured up visions of a pitchers’ duel when paired against Arrieta on an afternoon like this one, but the 2016 campaign has not been particularly kind to him. In seasons past, he’s been allowed to skip a start or two in the latter third of the season, so his short outing today could have been just as much about that as it was about anything the Cubs were doing. For his part, he allowed five hits in five innings and struck out two while giving up just two runs. At a different point in the season, he goes at least another inning or two and his line in the box score ends up looking much different.
The offense didn’t overpower Gray or his bullpen, but they were effective in providing Arrieta a four-run cushion when he handed the game over to Travis Wood for the ninth.
Top Play (WPA): Like yesterday, the third inning was the most productive for the offense. Willson Contreras and Dexter Fowler both singled to start the inning, and then after Kris Bryant struck out, Anthony Rizzo grounded out but was able to push Contreras and Fowler both into scoring position. Ben Zobrist then singled to center field to drive in both runners (+.196) and give the Cubs an early 2-0 lead.
Bottom Play (WPA): Without the Athletics even mustering a run, there’s little opportunity for a bottom play here, but Jake Smolinski getting hit by a pitch in the bottom of the third was actually the best spot for Oakland in this game (-.045). It makes sense, because it allowed their leadoff batter to reach base, which always presents a fruitful opportunity for run scoring.
Key Moment: With two outs in the sixth inning, Jorge Soler doubled to drive in Chicago’s fourth run, but the Cubs had already scored once in that inning on a single from Addison Russell that drove in Anthony Rizzo. In fact, calling it a single feels a bit generous, given that Ryon Healy chose to wait and see if it would dribble over the foul line instead of making a play on it. Because Anthony Rizzo was paying attention and Healy seemingly wasn’t, he was able to score. For as enthusiastic as Cubs fans might be about the plate appearances Soler has had since his return in last night’s game, this third run on the baserunning of Rizzo was key.
Trend to Watch: This late in the season, the timing of Arrieta’s scoreless outing looks promising. He has not pitched that deep into a game since May 14, and this was just the fourth time overall that he’s gone more than seven innings. His less than immaculate pitching in the playoffs last year has been generally agreed upon as a product of fatigue, so perhaps these shorter outings all season have been more purposeful than just a reaction to how he’s doing on that particular day. Even if that’s the case, with the last three innings in the capable hands of Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, and Aroldis Chapman, there’s often little reason for Arrieta to go more than six innings anyway.
It’s just two games. We should all tell ourselves this as we consider what we are seeing from Jorge Soler. It’s just two games. And when we look beyond the run-scoring double like he produced today, the rest of his at-bats are less impressive. However, don’t sleep on Soler. Even if he does it at a time other than the playoffs like he did in the NLDS last October, he’s demonstrated that he is capable of carrying the offense through an important series.
Coming Next: The series concludes in the late afternoon tomorrow with a 3:05 CT start time. Kyle Hendricks (10-7, 2.22) takes his pitching wizardry against lefty Sean Manea (3-6, 4.68) in the finale, and considering the season Hendricks is having, the Cubs are set up nicely for another sweep. The game is on WGN and 670 AM.
Lead photo courtesy John Hefti—USA Today Sports