Top Play (WPA): Among players with 450 plate appearances or fewer over the last calendar year, who has the highest fWAR? The answer, as you were wondering for all of 0.2 seconds (depends on your reading speed, YMMV) is Anthony Rendon, who’s put up a total of 4.8 since June 5 of last year, despite missing significant time on the disabled list during that period. Despite that time missed, his fWAR total comes in at 21st in all of baseball over that period, and 10th in the National League. He’s pretty good, and last night he did his darndest to beat the Cubs, going 2-for-4 with a single in the first and a double in the sixth inning. That double, off of Jake Arrieta, who was excellent again, improved the National’s chances of winning by 13.6 percent, making it the single most consequential play of the night.
Bottom Play (WPA): You’ve seen the video of this one. One out away from victory in the bottom of the ninth inning, the Cubs were scrambling. The Nationals had managed to put runners on first and second against Hector Rondon, and our old friend Rendon was at the plate, with Bryce Harper looming in the hole. A base hit into the gap could have won the game for the Nationals. But then something happened, on a 2-1 pitch, that made the Nationals announcers go, very loudly: “Uh oh! Uh oh!”
What had happened, in fact, was this:
The best part of this play—which extinguished entirely the 15.9 percent chance the Nationals still had of winning the game—was that it was entirely player driven. After the game, manager Joe Maddon acknowledged that he had no idea what was going to happen beforehand, and David Ross—the hero of the story—related how Rizzo had noticed that Clint Robinson, the doomed runner, had begun to stray too far from the bag, had subtly gotten Ross’s attention before the play, and had executed the tag perfectly when the throw came, on the money. It was, truly, a beautiful thing.
Key Moment: The play above was, obviously, key, but I’ll go ahead and give the award here to the entire first inning. Gio Gonzalez clearly came out a little bit off after a long rain delay, and the Cubs were able to pounce, scoring the only two runs they’d need all game. You’d rather have seen them score a few more, as they started the inning with the bases loaded and nobody out, but the inning nonetheless set the tone early. From that point on, Arrieta was his usual dominant self, and the bullpen carried the game effectively from his departure, after the sixth inning, until the dramatic conclusion.
Trends to Watch: Speaking of the bullpen, they’ve been pretty good lately. Since I wrote about how bad they were, on May 22, they’ve had a 2.34 ERA, which is good for fifth in the National League. I’m still not confident that their true talent level is that good, but the strong level of performance has nonetheless been a blessing for a team that’s really struggled to score runs as of late. To wit: in those same 14 days preceding today, the Cubs have managed to score just 38 runs. That’s the fourth-worst total in the majors over that time period, beating only the Phillies, the Royals, and … the Nationals. If the Cubs are going to go on a tear, the offense will have to pick up the pace. Soon.
Speaking of offense, David Ross (he of the .226 TAv) got a third consecutive start in last night’s game. Joe Maddon was fairly emphatic that this was largely about resting Miguel Montero, both for the weekend games against the Nationals and for the stretch run in September. Given that Matt Trueblood has shown on this site how much Montero has benefited from increased rest, this is a trend that’s worth keeping an eye on going forward. I tend to support Maddon’s strategy here in any case, but it’d be much easier to do so if Ross picked up his offensive game just a little bit.
Coming Next: Things don’t get much easier over the weekend. The Nationals, despite their recent struggles, are still a very good team, and the Cubs have to play them three more times before the series is over. Tomorrow’s matchup features Tanner Roark, recently promoted from the bullpen (after being demoted there due to the National’s offseason acquisition of Max Scherzer), against Tsuyoshi Wada, recently promoted from the minor leagues. Despite those unpromising provenances, Roark and Wada feature ERAs of 2.59 and 2.30, respectively, which are among the best numbers for fifth-starters in the game today.
It’s also worth considering Joe Maddon’s bench usage during this series, as this weekend is likely the last time we see the current bench configuration all season. The Cubs have made little secret of the fact that they’re considering shaking up the position player roster for the interleague series coming up (against the Tigers, Indians, and Twins), and any foreknowledge Maddon might have about who’s going up and coming down on Monday might play into his usage over the weekend. A player who he knows is going down, for example, might be used heavily, as he can get his rest in Iowa next week. Just speculation, but it’s something I’ll be keeping an eye on.
Lead photo courtesy of Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports