Top Play (WPA): Whew, well that felt good. Cardinals Devil Magic ran thin in the seventh inning of this one, and the Cubs were able to pull off what seemed like an unlikely doubleheader sweep on Tuesday. Let’s recap.
The top play in this one was Addison Russell’s game-tying single in the bottom of the seventh (.291). With runners at the corners and one man out, he was able to squib a ball down the first-base line that luckily (magically?) managed to barely stay fair as it hopped over the base. It wasn’t solid contact, but it tied the game at 2-2, and it will hopefully provide a boost to the struggling Russell’s confidence.
Dexter Fowler batted next and grounded to pitcher Kevin Siegrist, who momentarily forgot about The Cardinal Way and winged the potential double-play ball into centerfield (.152). This gave the Cubs a 3-2 lead. It was the kind of play that the Cardinals always seem to execute in these tight games, so it was a welcome relief to see some bad defense on the part of St. Louis.
Bottom Play (WPA): Dallas Beeler maintained a scoreless tie when he struck out Mark Reynolds in the fourth inning with one out and the bases loaded (-.092). Beeler was actually very effective in the early innings last night, and he gave the Cubs exactly what they were hoping for: a chance to win. He ended up with five innings pitched, two earned runs, and a nifty six strikeouts, which is exactly what you are looking for in a spot start. He has now performed admirably in that role several times over the past two years, and the Cubs will probably feel confident going back to him if the need arises again. Call-up Tim Cooney pitched well for the Cardinals as well, allowing only one run in his 5 1/3 innings.
Key Moment: Jonathan Herrera’s pinch-hit single in the seventh inning (in Chris Coghlan’s helmet) set the table for the Cubs to tie the game and take the lead. It is surprising that Herrera has been on the roster this year for as long as he has, but recently he has actually proven extremely valuable to the Cubs. He has had some very important hits for them over the past week–his homer against the Mets comes to mind–and he ended up 3-for-5 yesterday during the doubleheader. His .593 OPS is not going to inspire much praise, but in the type of close, low-scoring game the Cubs have been playing in recently, his positional versatility and situational awareness has proven to be truly useful off the bench. Herrera might not be around down the stretch as the Cubs’ bench gets healthier, but he really has done just about everything the Cubs could ask from him so far this year.
Trends to Watch: Jorge Soler is mashing the ball. This might not be immediately apparent from the box score–he went 1-for-9 during the doubleheader–but he spent most of Tuesday hitting ringing line drives. In the first game, he had what would usually be a home-run ball knocked down by the wind in centerfield and then hit into an unfortunate fielder’s choice on a rocket ground ball that he hit right at Mark Reynolds. He hit a line-drive double and scored in the eighth in Tuesday’s nightcap, but not before lining out to left in his first at-bat. For batters with 90 or more plate appearances, Soler trails only Giancarlo Stanton in average batted-ball velocity. And these stats don’t include Tuesday’s frozen ropes yet:
| Rank | Name | ABs With Data | Max Exit Vel. – MPH | Min – MPH | Avg – MPH | Avg – FB/LD MPH | Avg – GB MPH | Max Distance – Ft. | Avg – Ft. | Avg HR – Ft. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giancarlo Stanton | 128 | 120.00 | 56.00 | 97.73 | 101.94 | 91.64 | 479.00 | 336.61 | 424.27 |
| 2 | Jorge Soler | 98 | 116.00 | 37.00 | 93.92 | 96.07 | 90.95 | 427.00 | 310.00 | 397.25 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | 153 | 115.00 | 46.00 | 93.85 | 94.63 | 93.03 | 440.00 | 315.54 | 419.10 |
| 4 | Yoenis Cespedes | 196 | 113.00 | 48.00 | 93.80 | 96.40 | 91.59 | 439.00 | 313.62 | 408.73 |
| 5 | Joc Pederson | 139 | 114.00 | 38.00 | 93.63 | 98.36 | 88.38 | 477.00 | 329.74 | 427.32 |
| 6 | Miguel Cabrera | 172 | 116.00 | 42.00 | 93.59 | 97.07 | 91.73 | 454.00 | 306.49 | 378.56 |
| 7 | Mike Trout | 175 | 118.00 | 50.00 | 93.43 | 96.47 | 90.37 | 454.00 | 317.47 | 408.35 |
| 8 | Jose Bautista | 146 | 113.00 | 45.00 | 93.32 | 94.98 | 92.09 | 461.00 | 319.52 | 407.50 |
| 9 | Prince Fielder | 204 | 111.00 | 54.00 | 93.31 | 94.65 | 93.33 | 447.00 | 304.29 | 383.80 |
| 10 | Pedro Alvarez | 129 | 115.00 | 50.00 | 93.30 | 98.24 | 90.15 | 446.00 | 322.35 | 413.00 |
(via Baseball Savant)
If Soler keeps squaring up the ball like this and keeps his strikeouts down, his luck will turn around sooner rather than later.
Another quick trend to watch: the Cardinals are 3-6 since sweeping the Cubs last weekend.
Coming Next: The Cubs will go for the series win (!) Wednesday night, when Jason Hammel will take on Michael Wacha at Wrigley. Once again, offense is likely to be at a premium. Wacha (2.66 ERA/3.02 DRA/96 cFIP) got an NL All-Star bid and Hammel (2.89 ERA/3.39 DRA/81 cFIP) arguably deserved one. Wacha hasn’t been getting a ton of strikeouts (7.11 K/9), and his low BABIP and high LOB% suggest some regression might be coming, but he has very good stuff and works very effectively within the zone. Hammel, for his part, has been awesome in the first half for the second consecutive year, and he will look to carry his excellent performance into the All-Star break. The Cubs’ recently anemic offense finally started to kick it into gear Tuesday, but it would be nice to really see them break out in their last game against St. Louis until Labor Day.
P.S. If the Cubs win Wednesday, they will only be 6.5 games out of first place. Just saying.
Lead photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports