Top Play (WPA): It really hurts to delete everything I had written for the top play and write all of this down, but by law (or mandate, really) I must tell you the truth. This was an up and down game, with the Cardinals taking the early 4-0 lead, the Cubs tacking two runs on in the bottom of the third, taking the lead on a Miguel Montero bases-clearing triple at 5-4, and the Pedro Strop getting two quick outs in the top of the ninth.
But then, for some reason, Strop stopped being aggressive. He fell behind in the count to Matt Carpenter and ended up walking him on four pitches.
This was really the egregious at-bat in the inning, in my opinion. None of these pitches were close, and with two outs and being down a run, Carpenter is the last guy you want to try to pitch outside the zone. He’s a very patient hitter, has been struggling like crazy lately, and doesn’t have a ton of home-run power. Not throwing a single strike? Bad plan of attack.
Then came the big blow. After a low slider for a ball, Strop got two consecutive strikes on Jhonny Peralta. Despite being just one strike away from winning the ball-game, Strop threw the only fastball of the at-bat, middle-up and out of the zone.
Peralta drilled it into the basket in left field for a two-run homer (.759). It was the big blow in the 6-5 Cardinals win, and it wasn’t even an awful pitch. Ideally, Strop probably needed to get it up just a bit higher, but a fastball that high after three sliders? Hard to blame him too much for that one.
Bottom Play (WPA): The ninth inning started with a lineout by Chris Coghlan, a hard-hit ground ball by Chris Denorfia for an out, and a gapper off the bat of Addison Russell that put the tying run at second base. That brought up Dexter Fowler, but he wouldn’t be able to get the job done. He saw three pitches from Trevor Rosenthal, striking out on a fastball high and inside (-.132).
After his 1-for-4 performance, Fowler has hit just .196/.252/.307 over his last 172 plate appearances. It’s amazing the Cubs have been as good as they have this year considering the disappointing performance they’ve received from their center fielder.
Key Moment: So much to choose from here in a wild game that the optimist inside of me has decided was “entertaining.” I’m going with the aforementioned three-run double by Montero. Fowler led off the inning with a single off of Michael Wacha and Anthony Rizzo moved Fowler up with a single of his own. After Kris Bryant flew out on the first pitch he saw, Jorge Soler extended the inning with an infield hit off of Wacha’s glove.
Wacha was able to strike out Starlin Castro and got Montero down 0-2 in his at-bat. But Montero took three straight balls, one of which was just a bit outside, before eventually lining the seventh pitch of the at-bat into the right field gap and clearing the bases. Yadier Molina didn’t even watch the play, because he was too busy complaining to the home plate umpire. Matheny came out to yell at the umpire as well, presumably about the borderline call.
The fifth pitch of the at-bat is the one you should be looking at. Again, it was a borderline pitch. However, it was the right call. Wacha threw two more pitches before the Cardinals threw a temper tantrum that got their catcher and manager kicked out, so they had every opportunity to see a replay. They must have seen something that we didn’t.
Trend to Watch: Travis Wood came into this game in the fifth inning with the Cubs trailing 4-2. It looked early in the game like the Cubs were going to need to think about throwing in the towel, as the Cardinals weren’t fooled by Clayton Richard and jumped out to a four run lead. But Wood pitched three innings, allowing zero hits and just one walk while striking out five batters.
Since Wood went to the bullpen, he’s now thrown 24 1/3 innings, allowing 16 hits, seven runs, 14 walks, and 28 strikeouts. That’s good for a 2.49 ERA as a reliever, versus his 5.59 ERA as a starter this season. The difference could be found in his velocity.
In 2013, Wood’s cutter averaged around 88 mph and was an extremely effective pitch in his All-Star campaign. It dropped off in 2014, dipping down to an average of around 85 mph. But since his move to the bullpen, he’s been back up around 87 mph. Add that to the fact that his fastball is back up to 91 mph, and his two most frequent pitches are up closer to where they were two seasons ago.
Coming up Next: After splitting this series with the Cardinals, the Cubs now stand at 46-38 and are three games ahead of the Mets for the second Wild Card spot. The schedule lightens up a bit, with three against the White Sox at home before heading into the All-Star break. Overall, the Cubs will play 20 consecutive games against teams that currently hold losing records.
Lead photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports