Top Play (WPA): Whew, well, what a weekend. In front of another raucous Wrigley crowd on Sunday, the Cubs (barely) completed their second consecutive four-game weekend sweep, and entrenched themselves as favorites in the NL Wild Card race. Let’s recap.
The Cubs never quite scored a knockout blow against Giants starter Jake Peavy, but with Jake Arrieta on the mound, a two-run lead seemed to be all they would need. For this reason, the Cubs’ top WPA play of the game actually came in the bottom of the first, when Kris Bryant was able to bloop a two-out, two-strike fastball into right field and score Kyle Schwarber from third (+.109). The Cubs would add a run in the second inning, when Arrieta tripled to right field and Addison Russell scored him on a sac fly. After this, though, the Cubs offense sputtered, eking out only one hit after the second inning and leading to a very nervous ninth inning.
The Cubs got into some serious trouble in the top of the ninth. Up 2-0, Hector Rondon came in and quickly allowed a single to Brandon Belt and then a double to Brandon Crawford, which ended up being the top WPA play of the game (+.214). He would then load the bases by hitting Ehire Adrianza in the foot, leading to the heart-pounding sequence that I will cover in the Bottom Play section.
Bottom Play (WPA): With the bases loaded and nobody out in the ninth, Rondon badly needed a strike out. He quickly got one against lefty pinch hitter Hector Sanchez by abandoning his fastball and pumping in sliders below the knees. Sanchez swung at three consecutive low balls and began to bail Rondon out of his jam. This high-leverage at-bat ended up being the bottom WPA play of the game (-.152).
With one out, Rondon stuck with his slider against Angel Pagan. He threw seven sliders and one fastball in a long eight pitch at-bat. Pagan put up a good fight, but ultimately went down swinging on another slider in the dirt (-.128). I should give a mention to Miguel Montero, who blocked at least three or four tough sliders in the final frame, preventing the tying run from moving up to third.
Finally, Gregor Blanco worked a nine-pitch at-bat, before finally succumbing to a slider on the outside corner (-.138). It was the seventh slider that Rondon had thrown to Blanco in the at-bat, and the end of a very suspenseful sequence. In all, Rondon threw 21 sliders in the ninth inning, and it seemed to be the only pitch he could locate consistently. Rondon has been fantastic for the past two months or so, but with the rest of the bullpen struggling, the Cubs really need him to be good right now. Here’s a look at some numbers from Rondon’s roller coaster inning:
| Pitch Type | Velo (Max) | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swings / % | Whiffs / % | BIP (No Out) | SNIPs / % | LWTS |
| FT (Two-seam Fastball) | 97.7 (98.9) | -8.09 | 3.92 | 12 | 7 / 58.3% | 6 / 50.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 1 (1) | 6 / 54.5% | 0.87 |
| FF (Four-seam Fastball) | 96.5 (96.5) | -3.89 | 6.21 | 1 | 0 / 0.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 0 (0) | 0 / 0.0% | 0.02 |
| CH (Changeup) | 93.2 (93.9) | -9.16 | 1.98 | 2 | 1 / 50.0% | 1 / 50.0% | 0 / 0.0% | 0 (0) | 1 / 50.0% | -0.04 |
| SL (Slider) | 87.4 (89.2) | 4.06 | -0.59 | 21 | 17 / 81.0% | 13 / 61.9% | 4 / 19.0% | 1 (1) | 16 / 80.0% | -0.06 |
And here’s the final out of the inning, which you can now enjoy without nervous indigestion:
Key Moment: The key moment came in the top of the eighth, when Joe Maddon allowed Arrieta—who had already thrown 103 pitches through seven innings—to hit for himself and stay in the game to pitch the eighth. There are two reasons why this is key.
First, it shows an incredible confidence in Arrieta, who has now recorded 10 consecutive quality starts and an ERA of 1.23 since pitching a complete game shutout in Minnesota on June 21st. Arrieta was dominant again on Sunday. He struck out six over 7 2/3 innings and allowed only four hits. Best of all, his cFIP of 78 suggests that his excellent pitching is sustainable going forward. Looking back, it is only more amazing that Arrieta didn’t make the All-Star team—a few more weeks like this and he might be a viable Cy Young candidate.
Second, and a bit more soberingly, this suggests that Maddon has lost a bit of confidence in the bullpen. With the recent struggles of Jason Motte, Tommy Hunter, James Russell, and Travis Wood, the middle of the Cubs bullpen is quickly becoming more and more of a question mark. The Cubs fantastic rotation and improving offense has covered for the bullpen a bit over the past several weeks, but I was surprised that Maddon didn’t seem to want to give Justin Grimm or Tommy Hunter the whole eighth inning and pinch-hit for a tiring Arrieta in the bottom half of the seventh. The roles and performances in the bullpen have been shaky of late, and I’ll be looking to see how the Cubs intend to shore that up over the next few weeks as they head into the stretch run.
Trend to Watch: The Cubs have really been working opposing pitchers hard recently. Jake Peavy was only able to make it through five innings today, which was actually the deepest that any Giants starter made it this whole series. Dexter Fowler led off the game with a twelve pitch at-bat (see the graph below), and it didn’t get much easier from there for Peavy. He was forced to throw 38 pitches to get through the first, and he threw 101 total pitches through five. The top of the Cubs order is quite the gauntlet right now, with Dexter Fowler, Schwarber, Chris Coghlan, Anthony Rizzo, and Bryant all seeing more than the league average of 3.80 pitches per plate appearance. The Cubs currently lead all of baseball in pitches per appearance (3.98), and the 21-year-old Russell actually leads the team with 4.19, which is good for 10th in all of baseball. It is a huge advantage to be able to wear opposing pitching staffs down like this, especially down the stretch. This worked well against some middling starters this weekend, but it will be even more valuable when the Cubs are facing the league’s top starters down the stretch. If, when they face them, the Cubs can force pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, and Madison Bumgarner out of games early, their chances will continue to look better and better.
Coming Next: Bullpen drama aside, the Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season, and they suddenly have a substantive 3.5 game lead in the NL Wild Card race. After an off day on Monday, they will look to keep the good times going against lowly Milwaukee, who comes into town for a three game series. Dan Haren will make his Wrigley Field debut on Tuesday, when he will face-off against the Brewers’ Taylor Jungmann. Haren struggled a bit in his first outing, surrendering three earned runs on seven hits in just five innings of work in Pittsburgh last Wednesday. He will have an easier matchup against Milwaukee, however, whose offense was gutted by the trades of Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, and Gerardo Parra before the deadline. The Cubs beat Jungmann in Milwaukee last weekend, but through 11 major-league starts he has posted an impressive 2.26 ERA/2.61 DRA/95 cFIP. Before being called up, though, Jungmann had a 6.37 ERA at Triple-A Colorado Springs, so at least some regression should be expected at some point.
Jason Hammel will face Matt Garza on Wednesday, and Jon Lester will take the ball against rookie Tyler Cravy on Thursday. These favorable pitching match-ups make this a series that the Cubs could really dominate if they continue to play the baseball they are capable of. I will be watching to see if and when the Cubs will try to work Starlin Castro back into the lineup during this series as well—they won’t be facing any lefties, so there isn’t a clear platoon advantage to playing Castro any day this week. It will be intriguing to figure out if Castro can carve himself out a useful niche on the roster during this stretch run.
Regardless of these roster questions, the Cubs are clicking, and it should be a very fun week from Wrigley.
Lead photo courtesy of David Banks-USA TODAY Sports