The Cubs are going to the playoffs. There. I said it. Yes, it might be a tad overconfident for me to declare this race over and won, but the facts tell us that it would require a massive collapse for the 2015 Cubs not to be at least the second wild card. As of September 10th, the Cubs held the NL’s third-highest playoff odds at 99.7 percent and were maintaining a nine-game lead over the Giants for the second wild card. This means that while it’s not yet over, it’s certainly prudent for us to begin examining what the Cubs might do come playoff time. That’s what I’ll be seeking to do in this article as I explore the Cubs’ playoff roster options for both the Wild Card game and a full playoff series.
Wild Card Game
Pitchers Eligible for Playoff Roster (20): Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Dan Haren, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Travis Wood, Fernando Rodney, Clayton Richard, Tommy Hunter, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jason Motte, Neil Ramirez, Dallas Beeler, Yoervis Medina, Zac Rosscup, Eric Jokisch, Carl Edwards, Jr.
Position Players Eligible for Playoff Roster (19): Miguel Montero, David Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Tommy La Stella, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Jonathan Herrera, Christian Villanueva, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Austin Jackson, Chris Denorfia, Matt Szczur, Quintin Berry, Arismendy Alcantara
That’s certainly a lot of names, but we can eliminate a few very quickly. Let’s start with the pitchers. Anyone not currently on the Cubs’ active roster, barring those on the DL, will not be a part of the playoff roster. This automatically eliminates Dallas Beeler and Eric Jokisch. Moreover, a one-game playoff should require no more than two starting pitchers; one to start the game and another to back said starter up in case of injury, ineffectiveness, or an unforeseen circumstance such as a rain delay or a deep extra-inning game. Keeping that in mind, we can easily nix Hammel, Hendricks, and Haren from the Cubs roster for the WC game, leaving us with the team’s two aces, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. It’s also safe to say, given their variable usage this season, that none of Yoervis Medina, Zac Rosscup, or Tsuyoshi Wada will be on the WC Game roster—unless Joe Maddon’s love affair with Rosscup from earlier in the season is rekindled over the season’s final few weeks. Jason Motte has yet to return from injury, and it seems increasingly unlikely that he’ll be able to round back into shape in time for the playoffs, and I’m personally also skeptical that Neil Ramirez will get back to something resembling his 2014 self in time, although I’m open to being proven wrong. Rondon, Strop, and Grimm are guaranteed spots in the playoff bullpen, with Richard and Rodney seeming likely as well, given Maddon’s recent trust shown towards them. That leaves only Travis Wood, Tommy Hunter, and Carl Edwards, Jr. as options to fill out the playoff pitching staff. Wood has fallen out of favor a bit with Maddon, but a second lefty out of the pen could still be invaluable in a one-game situation, as could a long-reliever should the game go 15 innings or so. He’s in. Maddon has also tended to lean towards veteran reliever, but he recently hinted that Edwards could pitch in October if he impressed enough. I like the idea of an effective Edwards helping out in the playoffs, so I ultimately believe they both will make the bullpen.
As for the position players, we can repeat the exercise of eliminating anyone who is not on the active roster right now. That removes only Christian Villanueva and Arismendy Alcantara from contention, but it still puts us closer to our final group. Miguel Montero, David Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, and Austin Jackson are all shoo-ins for the playoff roster. All of them have, without a doubt, earned their place on the Cubs’ playoff roster, especially for the Wild Card game. This leaves seven players for six spots, assuming Jorge Soler is healthy and ready to go, so we only need decide who doesn’t belong for a one-game situation, and that player is Matt Szczur. Szczur has served his purpose as a sixth outfielder and backup center fielder for the Cubs this season, but late August acquisitions Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry have usurped Szczur’s two roles with this team: backup outfielder and pinch-runner.
FINAL WC GAME ROSTER: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Clayton Richard, Fernando Rodney, Travis Wood, Tommy Hunter, Carl Edwards, Jr., Miguel Montero, David Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Tommy La Stella, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Chris Coghlan, Chris Denorfia, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Austin Jackson, and Quintin Berry
NLDS/NLCS/WS
Pitchers Eligible for Playoff Roster (20): Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Dan Haren, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Travis Wood, Fernando Rodney, Clayton Richard, Tommy Hunter, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jason Motte, Neil Ramirez, Dallas Beeler, Yoervis Medina, Zac Rosscup, Eric Jokisch, Carl Edwards, Jr.
Position Players Eligible for Playoff Roster (19): Miguel Montero, David Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Tommy La Stella, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Jonathan Herrera, Christian Villanueva, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Austin Jackson, Chris Denorfia, Matt Szczur, Quintin Berry, Arismendy Alcantara
A full playoff series is undoubtedly different from a one-game playoff, so it requires a different roster. The first difference to note is that the Cubs will need four starters instead of just a few, so Hammel and Hendricks will be on the roster if the Cubs move on past the Wild Card game. Beyond that, the team will still want to maintain at least a five-man bench (except for the WS due to needing a DH), so we’ll want no more than eight relievers on the staff. That works just fine, as we can just transplant our group from the Wild Card game onto the full-series roster. It’s a fine group of pitchers that gives the Cubs options for specialization (Wood, Richard) and flexibility (Grimm, Edwards) in addition to a number of bullpen stalwarts.
The position players will have to be cut back by two players, since we have added two pitchers to the roster in this exercise. So long as Soler is healthy and can remain so, I feel the equation comes down to Chris Denorfia, Tommy La Stella, and Quintin Berry. It would be easy to keep Berry off of the full-series roster, as his major attribute of speed is more valuable in a one-game setting and less so over the course of five or seven games. This means that we still have to cut one of Denorfia or La Stella, which will be difficult, since both have their merits. La Stella can play multiple infield positions and provides a left-handed bench option, both of which are qualities that could be useful to the Cubs. Meanwhile, Denorfia is probably a slightly better hitter, although the team would already have five players capable of playing the corner outfield spots in Schwarber, Coghlan, Jackson, Soler, and Bryant. Therefore, as much as it would pain me to keep a trusted veteran such as Denorfia off the roster, it seems to me that this would be the prudent choice. La Stella simply provides a more useful set of skills over the course of a series, whereas Denorfia’s skill set overlaps with many other players, making him expendable down the stretch.
FINAL NLDS/NLCS/WS ROSTER: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm, Travis Wood, Fernando Rodney, Clayton Richard, Tommy Hunter, Carl Edwards, Jr., Miguel Montero, David Ross, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, Starlin Castro, Tommy La Stella, Javier Baez, Chris Coghlan, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Austin Jackson
Lead photo courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports