When the Washington Nationals declined to offer Denard Span a qualifying offer on Friday evening, it opened the field of potential suitors for the purest center fielder on the free-agent market even wider—though, given the lingering questions about the health of Span’s hip, it might also have inflated his asking price beyond the point at which many teams would have considered him a risk worth taking. Into which camp do the Cubs fall when it comes to Span: the newly ambitious, or the newly ambivalent?
Denard Span
Position: CF
2015 Stats: 61 games, 275 plate appearances, .301/.365/.431, .305 True Average, 9.1 BB%, 9.5 K%, .318 BABIP, 2.3 Baserunning Runs, 0.3 Fielding Runs Above Average
How He Fits: The checklist is so neat and tidy it feels surreal. Span is a good defensive center fielder who draws walks, hardly ever strikes out, makes great contact (he’s had only one season with a sub-90 percent contact rate, his rookie season in 2008, at a still impressive 88.9 percent), and has been a leadoff hitter for most of his career. With Dexter Fowler on the way out, the Cubs’ most glaring positional need is in center field. Their most obvious offensive need is a leadoff hitter to replace Fowler. It’s a glorious fit.
Span is also a relatively short-term solution, which is a feature, not a bug. Fowler could command a four-year deal this winter. Span isn’t getting that—not in the wake of a great season that was, unfortunately, truncated by a hip injury that required surgery in September. He can be a good stopgap for the Cubs, whether for the full life of a three-year deal or for just a season, and then move aside for whichever of Albert Almora, Ian Happ, or Eddy Julio Martinez looks like a legitimate big-league center fielder first.
One more good argument for Span: he’s a left-handed hitter with a pretty substantial platoon split. Over the last three seasons, Span has batted .312/.365/.444 against right-handed pitchers (good for a .297 TAv), and just .244/.315/.315 against lefties (.243 TAv). Again, though that’s a limitation, it’s not a problem. The splits show up in his overall numbers, which keeps his cost under control. Thus, the Cubs could feasibly look to add both Span (as their leadoff hitter and center fielder against righties, but resting against lefties, avoiding undue further risk of injury) and any of the number of available right-hitting center fielders—free agents Austin Jackson, Chris Young, Rajai Davis stand out, but Justin Maxwell and Drew Stubbs are lesser options in the same vein. With Chris Denorfia hitting free agency after his fairly disappointing one-year deal, Chicago has to add a spare outfielder anyway.
Why It Won’t Work: As I mentioned above, the big issue here is that Span didn’t end up tied to the qualifying offer. On one hand, that’s good: the Cubs wouldn’t have to give up their first-round pick to sign him. On the other hand, though, are these two thoughts:
- There might be as many as four or five teams who simply wouldn’t have been in on Span if he were to cost a draft pick, but who will be now. That not only figures to drive up Span’s financial cost, but necessarily decreases the odds that the Cubs are the one suitor who values Span most highly.
- Span’s hip. Without serious concerns with regard to Span’s health prognosis, even stretching into next season, the Nationals couldn’t possibly have justified withholding the qualifying offer in Span’s case. It just wouldn’t have made sense. An incumbent team’s principal advantage over all others in valuing a player lies in their superior information about the player’s health, and in this case, the Nationals were willing to send a clear, public signal to all other interested teams that they don’t believe in Span’s ability to overcome this issue and stay healthy in 2016.
Item No. 2 is the crux of the thing. Maybe it’s an elaborate head fake on Washington’s part, but that would be an extraordinary gambit, and probably a huge mistake. The smart money says they genuinely doubt Span has another healthy, effective season in him. That’s a red flag.
Alternatives: Fowler, Jason Heyward, Jackson, Colby Rasmus, Ender Inciarte, Cameron Maybin, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Marcell Ozuna
Lead photo courtesy of Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports