Barring trade or injury, the Chicago Cubs will play the opening portion of their 2015 campaign with a 25-man roster that features among its members three credible big-league catchers, in the persons of Miguel Montero, David Ross, and Welington Castillo. Worrisomely, however, not one of those three aforementioned gentlemen is a credible big league anything else.
This situation is rather unusual. In fact, it is so unusual that back in December, when Montero, Ross, and Castillo first began their cohabitation in the Cubs’ roster, informed observers reasonably concluded that “it’s fairly plain that the Cubs aren’t going to carry three catchers on the big-league roster when the season begins.” And yet, here we are in early April, the season has begun, and on the big-league roster three catchers remain.
We are, therefore, in the midst of an unlikely situation. When looking at post-1990 National League rosters (more on that later), after accounting for the strike in 1994, two rounds of expansion, and two league changes, this sample contains 362 team-seasons. Among these seasons, we find fourteen teams (approximately 4 percent of the total) which might reasonably be said to have been once in actuality what the 2015 Chicago Cubs are presently in potentiality. In other words, we find fourteen teams which started three separate individuals at least forty times at catcher.
Astute readers might recognize the subject of this post as “a sample.” Those same readers might further recognize that the subject is also “a flawed sample.” Specifically, it is limited to National League teams (because I am assuming that AL teams, being able to employ a designated hitter, would not face the same challenges as NL teams like the Cubs); it is limited to those teams which saw their catchers start at least forty games (because I am assuming that teams would not start an individual at catcher at least forty times unless they believe him to be a credible option at that position); and it is limited to teams post-1990 (because I am lazy and could not find a fast way to find the data).
As the notable philosopher George Santayana once said, “those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.” In order to become more cognizant of the past the 2015 Cubs might possibly be repeating, what follows is a more detailed examination of each of those fourteen teams’ experiences with carrying three catchers, in order to determine, as Diondre Cole (another noted philosopher) would say, “What’s Up With That?”
1. 1991 Giants (75-87) – Decker (65); Manwaring (57); Kennedy (40)
The story of three catchers—well, at least this story—begins with the ‘91 Giants, who employed the services of Steve Decker, Kirt Manwaring, and Terry Kennedy during a season that saw them finish fourth in the NL West. Their situation, unfortunately, isn’t much of a help to the Cubs: Decker, who had been platooning with Kennedy, got hurt in late July and failed to appear in another game until September 4. Manwaring was called up from Triple-A to fill the spot, and did so (to the tune of a 58 wRC+) until Decker returned.
2. 1993 Padres (61-101) – Higgins (47); Ausmus (47); Geren (41)
The 1993 Padres were a horrible team. It is possible that Padres management blamed this sad fact upon their catching situation, which until July 28 consisted mostly of Kevin Higgins (53 wRC+) and Bob Geren (54 wRC+) splitting time between the plate. In any event, on that date, the Padres called up a young man named Brad Ausmus to be their everyday catcher, Geren was relegated to the minors, and the Padres … still lost 101 games. Unfortunately, this situation (like the one before it) is not particularly analagous to the one the Cubs presently face. On to the next!
3. 1997 Giants (90-72) – Wilkins (50); Johnson (48); Berryhill (44)
The 1997 Giants, by contrast, were a pretty good team. Like their two predecessors on this list, however, they appear on this list mostly because they started the season with two catchers (Rick Wilkins and Damon Berryhill) and ended with two catchers (Brian Johnson and Berryhill), but those two pairs were not identical. Johnson was a midseason pickup from the Tigers, and played pretty well down the stretch, posting a 116 wRC+ in his age 29 season.
4. 1998 Cardinals (83-79) – Marrero (67); Lampkin (54); Pagnozzi (42)
Here, for the first time, we have a situation that somewhat resembles the one the Cubs are currently in. For most of the season, Tom Pagnozzi, Tom Lampkin, and Eli Marrero split duties behind the plate for the Cardinals, with the latter two occasionally pinch-hitting late in games. Unfortunately for Pagnozzi, however, by the stretch run his poor performance at the plate (52 wRC+) had caught up to him, and he was released by the club on August 16. Lampkin and Marrero split responsibilities from thereon out, though they were overshadowed (as was the rest of the baseball world) by the guy manning first base.
5. 1998 Diamondbacks (65-97) – Stinnett (78); Miller (43); Fabregas (41)
Speaking of being overshadowed, the ‘98 Diamondbacks had a fairly forgettable inaugural season. Much like the ‘97 Giants, their catching story is one of starting with two catchers (Jorge Fabregas and Kelly Stinnet) and slowly easing one of the two out of a job over the course of the season. In this case, the victim was Fabregas, who posted a 31 wRC+ before being shipped to the Mets at the trade deadline. His replacement, Damian Miller, was called up from Triple-A and acquitted himself well (101 wRC+) before, among other things, going to the postseason with the 2003 Cubs.
6. 1999 Pirates (78-83) – Kendall (74); Osik (43); Oliver (40)
The ‘99 Pirates featured another future Cub in Jason Kendall, then in the prime of his career (139 wRC+). Unfortunately for the Pirates, Kendall went down with an injury on Independence Day, so after playing only six games all season without him behind the dish, the Buccos were forced to swing a deadline deal with the Tigers for Joe Oliver, who proceeded to put up a 33 wRC+ in a platoon with Keith Osik for the remainder of the season.
7. 2000 Marlins (79-82) – Redmond (65); Bako (48); Castro (43)
Here, again, a familiar story. Future Fish manager Mike Redmond started the season behind the plate, with future Cub Paul Bako as second fiddle, but by midseason Bako had been designated for assignment (and later claimed by the Braves) in favor of then-24-year-old Ramon Castro, who finished a middling season for the Marlins alongside Redmond.
8. 2006 Phillies (85-77) – Lieberthal (56); Coste (46); Fasano (42)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Aging regular (Mike Lieberthal) is platooned with underperforming backup (Sal Fasano, 67 wRC+), who is shipped out of town midseason in favor of a fresh face (Chris Coste). Yeah, you have heard that one before.
9. 2008 Astros (86-75) – Ausmus (62); Quintero (52); Towles (47)
Another Brad Ausmus sighting! And here, it’s in a situation that’s at least somewhat analogous to the one the Cubs face today. Ausmus was the starter, with both J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero splitting time throughout the season between Triple-A and Houston. By the end of the year, Quintero was getting most of the starts that Ausmus didn’t take, but Towles was with him right until the very end, starting his last game on September 8.
10. 2010 Mets (79-83) – Barajas (67); Thole (51); Blanco (41)
It is a truth universally acknowledged that no story about catching and the Chicago Cubs should forgo mention of Henry Blanco. And indeed, the story of the 2010 Mets is sort of the story of Henry Blanco, but it is mostly the story of how Rod Barajas was replaced in the middle of the season by Josh Thole.
11. 2011 Astros (56-106) – Quintero (73); Corporan (46); Towles (41)
The 2011 Astros, like the ‘08 version, featured the catching services of J.R. Towles and Humberto Quintero. They differed, however, mostly in that they were much worse than the ‘08 team, and in that Towles was replaced midseason by Carlos Corporan.
12. 2011 Giants (86-76) – Whiteside (64); Stewart (51); Posey (41)
You know what happened here. Buster Posey got hurt on May 25, baseball quite understandably freaked out and changed the rules about home plate collisions, and the Giants were reduced to starting a platoon of future Cub Eli Whiteside (59 wRC+) and Chris Stewart (65 wRC+) for the remainder of the season. Next.
13. 2012 Cubs (61-101) – Soto (51); Clevenger (49); Castillo (46)
Hey, look, it’s the Cubs! As with the ‘11 Giants, above, this should be a familiar story to readers of this site. Geovany Soto, who’d started behind the plate for the Cubs since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2008, became one of the first trade casualties of the Epstein/Hoyer era, heading to Texas at the deadline. Welington Castillo, who of course features in this year’s catching situation, made his debut, alongside Steve Clevenger. This was not, lest you forget, a very good baseball team.
14. 2012 Padres (76-86) – Hundley (56); Grandal (52); Baker (52)
With the ‘12 Padres, we reach the end of our sample, and yet find a familiar story. The Friars started the season with Nick Hundley and future Cubs hero John Baker behind the plate, but the midseason debut of the Next Big Thing (in this case, Yasmani Grandal), combined with an unfortunate injury to Hundley, led to the Padres playing their final forty-two games without the latter.
***
What we have learned, in short, is that there is really no way in which the Chicago Cubs are going to carry three catchers for the remainder of the season. The teams in the past 25 years that have, have done so either because of (a) an injury to a starter or (b) the rise of a top prospect from the minor leagues caused them to do so. There is simply no precedent for this sort of situation sustaining itself.
The closest parallels to the Cubs’ situation are the 1998 Cardinals, who ended up releasing one of their catchers in August, and the 2008 Astros, who used two backup catchers with options left, shuffling them between Triple-A and Houston. As the Cubs have promised Castillo that he will either be in Chicago, or traded, it seems safe for us to expect the latter; sooner, rather than later. Joe Maddon may be a roster miracle-worker, but if he carries three starting catchers all year—giving each his fair share of playing time—he’ll have done something no NL manager in the last twenty-five years has done successfully.
Thanks very much for the site. It’s bookmarked. Now, can you make printer-friendly versions of the articles? I can’t read very critically on screens. Thanks.
The ’01 Cubs carried three catchers for most of that season’s second half, though they just miss this list because Robert Machado only made 34 starts (out of 52 total games played).
Absolutely. Although they weren’t discussed in the article for space considerations, there were an additional 25 teams in the sample that met a 30 GS threshold (’01 Cubs included).
I’m also toying with some search parameters to pull up teams that might have slipped through the cracks here because of the ‘Games Started’ criterion; a number of teams come to mind where backup C’s contributions aren’t accurately reflected in their starts.
The 1998 Cubs actually had three catchers on the roster for most of the season (Scott Servais, Tyler Houston and Sandy Martinez). Sandy Martinez looks to have been on the roster most or all of the season, but only caught 33 games (one of which, however, was Kerry Wood’s 20K game). The weird thing about that situation was that Martinez was kept on the active roster, yet utilized so seldomly. I recall being a kid, looking at the Cubs’ statistics/active roster in the newspaper and having no idea who this, “Sandy Martinez” was, who I never recalled seeing, but was listed.
Yeah, they’re have been another good example of the limitations of the ‘Starts’ criterion (see my reply to Michael, above). That said, it looks like they made it work by having Tyler Houston come in as a defensive replacement at 3B and 1B late in games, in addition to starting twelve games at those two positions combined.
My primary takeaway from this article is that if you’re ever one of three catchers on a Major League Baseball team, there’s a 30% chance that you’ll play for the Cubs at some point in your career and a 60% chance that at least one of you will. Since this is a Cubs analysis blog, I demand an analysis of whether this is greater or less than the chance that a catcher will one day play for the Cubs no matter how many other catchers are on his team.
Incidentally, your bio describes my life with uncanny precision (although I haven’t been a grad student at the LSE for a few years now). You should post a BP email address so that people like me can more effectively send you unreasonable demands.
I am now operating under the assumption that Buster Posey is going to be the Cubs opening day catcher next season
Yeah, I was surprised by the number of ex/future Cubs on the list as well, though I suppose in part it’s a function of the number of backup catchers on the list – those guys get around.
With respect to a BP email address: when and if they give me one, I’ll post it!
Favorite line the article about the 2012 Cubs, “This was not, lest you forget, a very good baseball team.” Hilarious and accurate.
Very curious to see what happens with this catcher situation.