Top Play (WPA): With the Cubs trailing 5-4 in the top of the ninth and Dexter Fowler at the plate with two down, down 0-2, and Welington Castillo on first, Fowler pulled a LaTroy Hawkins slider into the second deck of Coors Field to give the Cubs a 6-5 lead (.670). No-brainer; huge moment for Fowler, the Cubs, and a great early-season comeback win. Fowler began his Cubs’ career with a double, but went hitless in his next 12 at-bats. However, the last two days in Colorado he’s come alive, going 4-for-8 with two walks, two triples and a home run.
Bottom Play (WPA): Carlos Gonzalez pops out to second with the tying run on third to end the game (-.189). That’s pretty obvious, right? Rough out for Gonzalez and the Rockies. What’s a little more interesting is the next worst play: With Cubs down by one with one out in the fifth, men on first and second with Jorge Soler up. Soler hits a hard liner that D.J. LeMahieu snags and doubles up Fowler off first, threat over (-.124). Yet another instance of the Cubs failing to take advantage of men on base early in the season for fans to complain about.
But that’s not the takeaway from the inning. Arismendy Alcantara reached on an error to lead-off the inning and pitcher Kyle Hendricks followed. The Cubs were trailing by two at the time and bunting with the pitcher would have hardly been viewed as a poor decision. And while Joe Maddon is considered a forward-thinking manager, he isn’t one to shy away from the bunt. However, perhaps Maddon sensed that a big inning was possible or, with every out being so precious, why give one away in Coors field when a big inning could be had? Whatever the thought process was, Maddon had Alcantara steal second rather than have Hendricks bunt him over. Hendricks promptly followed with a run-scoring single, temporarily bringing the Cubs to within one run of the Rockies.
If Maddon was thinking of trying to go for the big inning, his senses were justified. Had it not been for LeMahieu’s strong defensive play on Soler, the Cubs could have made this game much less dramatic than it turned out to be.
Key Moment: There are plenty to choose from, but I’m going with Jason Motte retiring Justin Morneau and Corey Dickerson with pop ups to end the fifth. Hendricks was doing his usual thing, giving up contact and relying on his defense, but the second part of that equation wasn’t really working out so well. After the Cubs had trimmed their deficit to one, Hendricks started the fifth with a walk to Charlie Blackmon, a run-scoring double to Gonzalez, and then left after retiring Nolan Arenado on a fly out to center that advanced Gonazalez to third.
Motte came into a close game, charged with keeping it that way in a tough situation. The Rockies four and five hitters were on tap and the former Cardinal closer got the job done with little stress involved. With Justin Grimm out, Maddon has fewer reliable arms to go to in the pen, but if Motte can step up, predictions that this pen can be special could look quite accurate.
It’s early, but already twice this season the pen has come into a game with one down in the fifth and the game still within reach. What have they done? Tossed 9 1/3 innings, struck out 10, walked two, given up five hits, and allowed zero runs. They lost that first one (Opening Night), but the bullpen’s efforts this Sunday allowed the Cubs offense to creep back and Fowler to have his dramatic moment in the ninth.
Maddon seems to have gotten into a rhythm of going to Motte (if needed), then moving on to Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop, and Hector Rondon. That trio could prove to anchor one of the stronger groups in the bigs. If Phil Coke can take hold of the lefty role, Grimm comes back healthy and effective, and perhaps someone like Blake Parker (who had strong peripherals last season, leading to a 3.25 FIP, and is probably a better choice as a final bullpen option over Brian Schlitter) steps up, things will only look up for this bullpen.
Trend to Watch: Once again, there are plenty. The poor defense, the lack of hitting with men in scoring position, the aforementioned bullpen, and Maddon’s aggressiveness on the base paths; each is something to keep an eye on—whether they last or not. But what caught my eye today—and really the last two—was Alcantara’s approach at the plate. Alcantara remains hitless on the season, but saw 41 pitches in eight plate appearances over the last two games, drawing three walks and scoring four runs.
Seeing so many pitches has numerous advantages. He’s raising the pitch count of the pitcher, meaning the manager may be forced to go to the bullpen earlier than wanted. It’s giving his teammates more opportunities to see what the pitcher has to offer, hopefully giving them a chance to take advantage of anything they may notice while Alcantara is working the count.
Most importantly, it makes sure Alcantara is providing some value at the plate despite still searching for that first hit. And seeing all those pitches only helps Alcantara get comfortable at the plate and gives some promise that while he’s not where he wants to be offensively just yet, things could turn in the right direction sooner rather than later.
Coming Next: The Cubs come back home to Wrigley to start a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds. They’ll trot out Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta to start the series, with Travis Wood wrapping things up. Chicago catches a break as they miss Johnny Cueto, but they can’t avoid Joey Votto. Votto is attempting to silence (the ridiculous) critics who claim he hasn’t done enough the last few years, despite being hurt for much of last season and still posting a .390 on-base percentage. Votto already has three home runs on the season, and unsurprisingly continues to get on base above a .400 clip. Retiring Votto will be a challenge in the series, but outside of him and Todd Frazier, the Reds bats are still looking to find their groove in the early goings.
The offense seemed to be getting a bit unlucky with wind keeping hard hit flies inside the park. There were a few shots yesterday that had me jumping up off my couch when they left the bat, only to make sit back down a little bit sadder.