Top Play (WPA): The Cubs bullpen has exceeded even our admittedly lofty expectations going into this season. When the team’s starting pitching has allowed early runs, or when the bats have gone quiet, the ‘pen has done an exceptional job keeping the game within striking distance. Saturday’s biggest play, however, came at the expense of Hector Rondon, who until today had walked only one batter and allowed no runs in six innings of work.
After a brief, shaky outing by Phil Coke, Rondon allowed run-scoring hits to Justin Upton and Will Middlebrooks, bringing up pinch-hitter Yangervis Solarte. Rondon looked less than stellar, and the fastball that Solarte ripped for a game-tying single (.329 WPA) into right caught too much of the inside half of the plate. One poor outing from Rondon does not cause any concern, but Joe Maddon’s bullpen usage has been one of the more enigmatic factors in this short season. Two weeks into the season, the Cubs’ relievers have seen a lot of work, and with Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm on the DL, more of them will have to post better and longer appearances like Zac Rosscup did in extras today.
Bottom Play (WPA): Interestingly, the play that most negatively impacted a team’s chance of winning this afternoon plated a run for the Padres. Following the aforementioned hits from Upton and Middlebrooks, and with no one out and runners on second and third, Rondon got Jedd Gyorko to ground to Kris Bryant at third (-.134). Bryant took the out at first, the Padres nudged the score to 6-5, and Rondon recorded a strikeout of Alexi Amarista before Solarte’s single.
I was mildly surprised that Maddon didn’t get another reliever up after Rondon’s first two hitters reached base, but with the bullpen thinner than usual, only Rosscup, Edwin Jackson, and Brian Schlitter remained—hardly a trio to strike fear into the hearts of Padres hitters.
Key Moment: The Cubs accumulated over twenty baserunners today. While his power has yet to show up in the box score, Bryant led the charge with three walks and two singles. The newly minted third sacker seemed to be at the heart of every Cubs scoring opportunity, evinced by his team-leading .358 WPA.
In the fifth, with the Cubs behind San Diego 2-0 due to Matt Kemp’s first inning home run, Anthony Rizzo hit a chopper that squeaked by Yonder Alonso at first, scoring Jonathon Herrera and drawing the Cubs within one. With two impressive walks against Padres starter Tyson Ross already under his belt, Bryant worked the count to 2-1 before swinging at a slider off the plate, getting just enough of the bat on it to deposit an RBI bloop single to center for his first MLB hit.
After looking every bit the rookie against James Shields’ devastating changeup on Friday, Bryant exhibited the impeccable patience on Saturday that is a trademark of his game. Those first two walks came after drawing 0-2 counts against Ross’ very good slider, and if he can maintain that level of discipline, he’s going to start seeing pitches in the zone. It’s only a matter of time before Bryant parks one on Waveland.
Trend to Watch: Miguel Montero’s two home runs will comprise most of the highlights (and it’s enjoyable and heartening to see his bat warm up), but the Cubs’ baserunning has been incredibly aggressive under Maddon so far this season, and it should continue to create scoring chances going forward. Jeff Lamb noted the same thing at the end of yesterday’s recap, but well-chosen stolen bases and smart bases taken on balls in play can help turn a game when a starter has a strong outing, as Ross did today.
Anthony Rizzo headlined the Cubs’ running attack with two stolen bases, an interesting development to say the least, but if he can complement an MVP-caliber bat and top-notch defense with a smart running game, he could become an even more special player than we’ve imagined.
Also notable is the extra base Kris Bryant took on his single in the fifth. While Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro ended the inning quietly, runners at second and third greatly advantaged the Cubs, whereas has Bryant stopped at first, the threat of a double play would have remained. Similarly, Bryant hustled out an infield hit in the eleventh, two batters prior to Castro’s game-winning single. As with Rizzo, speed isn’t a part of Bryant’s game, but an efficient and intelligent running game is a better complement to the Cubs’ looming power attack than a stolen base-oriented game would be. Ten games in, the Cubs rank near the middle of the pack or above average in most baserunning stats, according to both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Reference. They currently sit at -.02 Base Running Runs, sixteenth in MLB.
The win today seemed to play out in three distinct acts: early on, Ross dominated the Cubs’ hitters, and Hendricks’ one early mistake to Kemp in an otherwise outstanding start looked like it might be the difference. However, the pivotal fifth inning changed the story of the game quickly, and Montero’s big day seemed to put the game out of reach for the withering Padres lineup. The game’s narrative evolved again in that crucial top of the ninth, and the Cubs eventually scratched out a victory.
Winning the close ones always feels good, even if it should have been finished in nine. The Padres have proven a worthy opponent in two games, and they will likely be hanging right with the Cubs for a playoff spot late in the summer.
Coming Next: Jon Lester looks to improve upon his two ugly starts in the rubber game tomorrow opposite former Cub Andrew Cashner. And we can only hope that Bryant and friends can come away with another “W.”