The Impact of Hitting the Pitcher Eighth

Joe Maddon stated he was going to bat his pitcher in the eighth slot in the batting order, and so far this year, he’s stuck to his guns. Regardless of the hitting abilities of the pitcher involved or the player slotted in the ninth spot, the Cubs pitcher has batted eighth in every game so far this year.

Batting the pitcher eighth appears to be seeing a resurgence this year, as Maddon isn’t the only manager putting his pitcher in this position. This chart shows the number of games in which the pitcher batted in any slot other than ninth (as a starter) since 2000 (through Tuesday):

Only ten or so games into 2015 and the number of games where the pitcher batted eighth is already close to what it was in 2014. Maddon shows no signs of stopping this practice, but the interesting thing is he has company–the Rockies batted their pitcher eighth in three games, including two against the Cubs, and the Mets batted Jacob deGrom eighth in a game against the Nationals. In an odd bit of trivia, prior to the two Cubs-Rockies games where both pitchers batted eighth, the last time this occurred was in 2008, when there were 11 games in which both team’s pitchers batted eighth, a combination of games featuring the Cardinals, Pirates, and Brewers. Other than that year, there was never a game in which both pitchers batted eighth, at least going back to 1914.

The old saw goes one occasion is a point, two occasions is a line, and three a trend—I’m not ready to authoritatively state that a change in thinking is occurring throughout baseball, but it’s gaining traction. Russell Carleton discussed this at length at the Baseball Prospectus mothership, and believe me, I’ll leave all the Gory Math® to him to explain the minor advantage that moving the pitcher to the eight-spot can confer. In The Book, Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin quantified it, stating:

The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year.

Maddon has discussed his rationale for this strategy, and one of his primary motivations is the concept of the second leadoff hitter. This exists not in the first inning, but in later innings when batting order essentially disappears, and works in tandem with the other new trend in baseball, batting the best hitter in the two slot instead of the traditional three hole. After the first inning, there will be more opportunities for a number two hitter to have multiple runners on base if the pitcher has already hit and the number nine hitter provides a decent opportunity to reach base. It also has the added benefit of gaining around 15-20 more plate appearances a year for a hitter batting second instead of third. Maddon also stated he discussed this strategy extensively with Tony LaRussa, who batted his pitcher eighth with varying degrees of frequency. This is how often Cardinals pitchers batted eighth in LaRussa’s tenure:

Some years he did it more often than in others, and he didn’t appear to show preferences by pitcher, which is plainly obvious in 2008 when he essentially batted the pitcher eighth the entire year. Did it work? The Cardinals were 86-76 that year and didn’t make the playoffs, but were fourth in the NL in runs scored. There’s no way one change in strategy can be tied to record or runs scored, but it appears the Cardinals weren’t hurt by batting their pitcher eighth that year.

The difference will only be seen in individual games and will never be able to be proven empirically, since there won’t be opportunities to test the alternative in a given situation. In other words, if Jon Lester bats eighth and comes to bat with the bases loaded and the game tied, it can’t be known what would happen if someone else were batting eighth. However, the proof will be in those instances where the Cubs two hitter, be it Anthony Rizzo or Jorge Soler, comes to bat with more runners on the bases because the nine hitter was able to reach base.

This is the proper way to see the one to two runs per year that Carleton and Tango, et. al. found—runs aren’t scored in increments, but in units. Those one to two runs aren’t accumulating throughout the year, but arise situationally, and when the difference between making the playoffs and watching them narrows with every increase in the number of playoff slots, there will be games where that one run might be the difference in winning the game. When viewed in this manner, all the steps managers take in order to better their odds of winning take on increased significance. These steps don’t necessarily work by themselves, but are part of the greater whole of attempting to put as many factors in a team’s favor.

As baseball consumers, we’re attuned to minor differences, particularly those that go against the grain or seem outside of conventional thinking. When broken down to its essence, batting order becomes irrelevant after the first inning because batters rarely bat their true slot in the first place. This doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant, only that it’s far more important to take into consideration handedness of the hitter, tendencies against a given pitcher, and numerous other factors. It is important to put thought into the first three batting order slots (and probably fourth) since they are guaranteed to bat in that slot in the first inning, but after the first inning, the cleanup hitter is just as likely to bat first, second or third in the inning.

I wrote about the idea that hitters rarely bat in their batting order slot over a year ago. The real change in baseball thinking is the one gaining more plate appearances for the better hitters, which in theory should lead to more runs. In baseball, theory and actuality often don’t match up well, since baseball is one of the few sports in which the stars can’t be used at will. As long as chance plays the large role it does, managers will seek every advantage they can to reduce chance and place the odds more in their favor. This appears to be what Joe Maddon is doing batting his pitcher eighth. Will it work? Smarter people than me suggest the effect is extremely minor, but every game in which it works to generate a victory will make it worth it.

All data from Baseball-Reference