Why We Had to Say Goodbye to Arismendy Alcantara and Why We’ll See Him Again

I am a big advocate of Arismendy Alcantara. As a baseball fan, I love seeing a player who displays the ability to benefit his team not just as the typical, power-hitting home-run clubber, but in other less obvious, more nuanced ways. The range of benefits that Alcantara brings to the Cubs makes him a little Clark Kent in his own right. He can hit, he can hit for power, he can field beautifully, he runs with speed, and he’s versatile at a wide range of positions. Who wouldn’t love a player like that?

The thing is, the Cubs little Superman shows major potential for tomorrow—but it’s still today. He still has some work to put in before he can become what we all want him to be.

Upon hearing the news that Alcantara was being shipped back to Iowa to make room for Addison Russell earlier this week, I was initially a bit puzzled. Why send down Alcantara? Surely there was someone else who could have gone down instead. Part of that reaction was me not being rational in a sheer moment of confusion and my affinity towards Alcantara kicking in as natural instinct. But I gathered myself and realized that this was actually one of the more sensible routes for the Cubs’ present and Alcantara’s future.

As I wrote about in my last piece regarding Russell and Starlin Castro, the major-league adjustment period can be rough. On everyone. (Even Kris Bryant went hitless in his first game, though that probably doesn’t even really count because, well, he’s Bryant and he was facing James Shields.) I don’t mean to sound like a broken record with this sentiment (even I scoffed at myself as I thought this in my head—even I’m tired of hearing me say it.) But facts are facts, and this one is important.

The truth of the matter is that Alcantara had a bad start to 2015. It wasn’t horrible, but should he have stayed with the club any longer he would have watched his numbers sink even lower along with his confidence as he fell into a deep pit of despair and frustration and/or ended up rotting on the bench. Not options I, or hopefully anyone else for that matter, would like to see for such a promising young player.

Alcantara left the Cubs with a meager .077/.226/.077 line in 11 games/32 plate appearances. He didn’t grab his first hit until the sixth game of the season—and three of the games prior were played in Colorado, one of the most hitter friendly environments in the majors. Alcantara’s highest strikeout rate in the minors came, naturally in the highest level—Triple-A Iowa. He had a K rate of 22.7 percent in Iowa, up from 21.9 percent in Double-A (small, but still a climb) and 17 percent in High-A. The trend only worsened upon his arrival to the majors, as he struck out in 31 percent of his plate appearances in 2014 and 35 percent of the few plate appearances he had in 2015. Alcantara may just prove to be the type of player who has a naturally higher strikeout rate, which is acceptable should he produce when he isn’t striking out. And that’s the problem, he hasn’t been.

Even though Alcantara didn’t have a completely disastrous 2014 campaign, we did see his numbers drop off drastically following his promotion to the big leagues. He had a line of .205/.254/.367, a TAv of just .228, and we saw his BABIP sink to .266—certainly not expected or accepted for a player with his type of speed. His BRR dipped from his unrivaled numbers in the minors to just 0.7, yet another aspect in which he failed to take advantage of his wheels, a part of his game that should be setting him apart from his peers. One of the bigger problems that Alcantara faces is not that he’s striking out, it’s how he’s striking out and what he’s swinging at.

This is the swing percentage heat map of a player who needs better zone recognition. And it is also the swing percentage heat map for Alcantara in 2014—I guess it would have been a bit odd if I’d chosen to show you someone else’s heat map in an article about Alcantara. Alcantara is an absolute sucker for swinging at pitches up and out of the strike zone. Though he swung at over half of the pitches up high, yet still in the zone, he also swung at a cringe-worthy number of pitches just outside the strike zone. Looking low into the strike zone, he was less of a sucker—but still doing enough to once again make us cringe.

And as you can see here, in 2015, it didn’t get much better. He’s swinging at pitches in the zone, sure, but he’s still not doing enough to resist those unhittable pitches outside of the zone. So as much as I may be waving the Alcantara flag, I’m also waving my finger at his strike zone recognition.

With the promotion of Russell to remedy the situation at second, and Castro holding tight at short, there wasn’t a lot of room for Alcantara to try and fix his woes with a hefty helping of constant at-bats—which is really the only prescription for this ailment. Now, while exercising the best options for a team in very serious win-now mode, and the best option for a player that just needs a little more polishing, Iowa is all that makes true, rational sense for Alcantara at this point.

The greatest thing we have to look forward to though when Alcantara does come back to the bigs is the pop that he will provide off the bench or in fill-in situations. Alcantara has displayed that he can bring that power he’s shown in the minors to the big leagues as well. He hit 10 home runs in Iowa in 366 plate appearances, then matched those 10 with the big-league club in 66 fewer plate appearances. He also had 11 doubles and eight stolen bases (though he was caught stealing five times, so, yeah, there’s plenty to work on here). The speed is there, with BRR numbers as high as 5.2 with the Smokies, and 3.8 in Iowa, Alcantara should serve as a threat on the basepaths in the future if he can continue to improve that aspect of his game.

As written in the BP Annual under his player comment, Alcantara was originally slated to be a shortstop, but with the Cubs system overflowing with talent at the position, Alcantara has turned himself into a multi-faceted defender, working at second base as well as center field, and has proven to be effective at all three positions. This versatility should make him an asset off the bench in times of need, if and when he finally works out the kinks at the plate.

The truth is Alcantara may not have a place on the everyday roster with how the Cubs are presently constructed. They seem to have found solutions at each position that Alcantara could provide value—although, if Dexter Fowler’s injury proves to keep him out longer than expected, Alcantara may suddenly find himself back on the big-league roster, but Matt Szczur likely makes more sense for both the team and Alcantara’s development. And while there may not be a place for him right now, that doesn’t mean that he can’t and won’t be a vital part of this team moving forward, and won’t potentially see everyday time in the future. Alcantara is only 23, and his days in Cubbie Blue are just beginning.