Photo courtesy of David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Today is May 1st. That means, for one thing, that Mother’s Day is a mere ten days away. Purchase your thoughtful presents now. It means, for another, that—by virtue of their off day yesterday—the Chicago Cubs have completed their April schedule. Although mothers are undoubtedly important, it is that second occassion that I would like to focus on today. Specifically, I’d like to take you—the happy reader—on a tour through the Cubs’ five best batting, and five best pitching performers in the month of April, with perhaps a little commentary on the top play of the month for each of those players, and maybe even some moving pictures of those same plays.
Before we proceed, a few technical notes. If your interest in the Cubs is more in the human-interest side of things, rather than the sabermetric side of things, you can easily skip the next two paragraphs. Go on. I won’t mind. Alright, here we go. First, although there are many defensible ways to list the top five batting and pitching performers this month, I’m going to take the easy way out and use ‘total contribution’ statistics easily available on Baseball Prospectus’s website: bWARP, for hitters, and DRA_pWARP, for pitchers. While that first stat is well established, and measures the hitter’s contribution to the team, in terms of wins, above a readily available replacement player, the second statistic was just introduced Wednesday, so I’ll forgive you if you’re not familiar. Here’s where you can read all about it. In any event, both will be in parentheses after a player’s name.
Second, while there are likewise many ways to measure an individual’s top play for a given time period, I am also going to take the easy way out here and use the individual’s top play, measured by WPA. This, simply put, is a statistic which calculates a team’s chances of winning a game (based on historical precedent) before a play, then calculates the team’s chances of winning that same game after the play, then finds the difference between the two in order to calculate the ‘winning percentage added’ by the player by that play. Pretty basic, but it does the job.
On to the good stuff—and welcome back, to those who skipped here from the intro. Let’s begin with the hitters, in reverse order. The fifth biggest contributor to the Chicago Cubs in April was a guy who many believed wouldn’t be here in March, much less as we begin May:
5. Welington Castillo, C (0.3)—Castillo’s top play of the young season came on April 14 against another oft-maligned (ex-) Cub, Kevin Gregg. With nobody out and Matt Szczur on first, Castillo pounded a homer into the seats that brought the Cubs within one. The Cubs still ended up losing the game—which may end up being a metaphor for Castillo’s time with the team—but that one play nonetheless made the Cubs 16.1 percent less likely to lose.
4. Dexter Fowler, CF (0.6)—Fowler has looked the part since arriving in Chicago via trade. His top play came on April 12, against yet another former Cubs closer in LaTroy Hawkins, when with two down in the ninth he homered, scoring himself and Castillo, and putting the Cubs in a 6-5 lead they would hold on to for the win. The play improved the Cubs chances by a whopping 67.0 percent.
3. Starlin Castro, SS (0.6)—Castro, as others have noted elsewhere, is coming into his own. His top play this season came on April 21, against the Pirates, with the Cubs down two in the ninth against Buccos righty Mark Melancon, he singled to left, scoring two runs to tie the game. In so doing, he also improved the Cubs chances of winning by 39.9 percent.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B (0.7)—This is satisfying to see. Bryant, despite throwing a one-man No Homer Party in April, has been really good. His top play came on April 20, when, with the Cubs tied 1-1 in the seventh, he lined a double to right off Pirates righty Arquimedes Caminero. Two runs scored on the play, and a third came in on an error. The Cubs chances of winning improved 40.7 percent.
1. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (0.8)—He is who you thought he is: the best player on a pretty good Cubs team. Oddly, though, his top WPA play was one in which he reached on an error. In the fifth inning of April 18’s game against the Padres, with things knotted 1-1, Rizzo reached on an error by Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso (he who the Padres once chose over Rizzo, back in 2012). Jonathan Herrera scored, and the team’s chances of winning went up 18.5 percent. For your viewing pleasure, here is that play:
That was nice. Now let’s move on to the pitchers. The first guy we see, somewhat surprisingly, is not a starter but a reliever. And his hat game is, as the kids are (reportedly) saying, on fleek:
5. Pedro Strop, RP (0.1)—Strop came over from Baltimore, along with Jake Arrieta (who’ll feature later on this list) and has been pretty darn good since then. His top play this year was a strikeout of Zack Cozart on the 13th of the April, which kept the game tied 6-6 in the ninth and improved the Cubs’ chances by 5.4 percent.
4. Kyle Hendricks, SP (0.2)—Hendricks’ overall numbers would look better if not for his clunker against the Pirates on Wednesday. That said, he’s had his moments. The best one came, interestingly enough, on Wednesday, when with runners at the corners in a tie game, he managed to strike out Andrew McCutchen, thereby improving his team’s (ultimately doomed) chances by 9.4 percent.
3. Jason Hammel, SP (0.4)—Hammel engendered a great deal of good will among Cubs fans first for being a key part of the trade that brought Addison Russell to Chicago, and then for actively seeking to come back. He’s also helped his case by being pretty good. His best moment came on April 11 against the Rockies, when he induced Nick Hundley to ground into a double play, thereby preserving a 5-3 lead into the fifth and improving the Cubs chances by 9.9 percent.
2. Travis Wood, SP (0.4)—Apparently, the competition for the fifth starter spot lit a fire under Wood, because he’s been the Cubs’ second-best pitcher this month. He was especially good on April 21, when he induced Sean Rodriguez to line out to right, thereby preserving a one-run lead and improving the Cubs’ chances by 5.2 percent.
1. Jake Arrieta, SP (0.6)—The bro-iest of the Cubs’ pitchers has also been the best. His shining moment came against the Reds on the 26th of April, when with the bases loaded in the fifth inning, he induced Todd Frazier (who’d earlier homered, breaking up a perfect game) to pop out to first base. That play, which improved the Cubs’ odds of winning by 6.6 percent, can be viewed in GIF form below:
And there you have it! Your top hitting performer of the month is Anthony Rizzo, and your top pitcher is Jake Arrieta. But, most importantly, the Cubs record this month was 12-8, or an even .600. If they keep that up, they’ll be solidly in the playoff conversation all season long (not to mention on pace for 97 wins). And that is far more important than any individual performance—almost as important as getting an especially thoughtful present for your mother for Mother’s Day. Don’t forget!
With the Castillo play, you wrote, “With nobody on and Matt Szczur on first…”
I think you meant to say “With nobody out”
Quite correct – fixed! Thank you.