Top Play (WPA): The contest was lopsided in favor of the home team, but the top play is fittingly reserved for Kris Bryant. With one out in the third, Dexter Fowler doubled into the left-center gap. Addison Russell was destined to score, but the Brewers caught a break when the ball stuck beneath the padding of the wall, giving Fowler a ground-rule double and sending Russell back to third despite the protestations of Joe Maddon. Bryant then stepped to the plate with the Cubs trailing 2-0. Milwaukee Starter Kyle Lohse delivered an 83-mph curveball with his target intended for slightly below the bottom of the outer-half of the strike zone:
Though the break on the pitch was acceptable, Lohse missed his target by eight inches both horizontally and vertically, leaving it on the inner-half of the plate for Bryant to punish:
And punish it he did (.229):
It took Bryant 92 plate appearances to record his first major-league home run, but it was the trajectory of the drive that illustrated his power more succinctly than the early season drought. The majestic shot caused me to reminisce of Mark McGwire’s propensity to hit what appeared to be a popup off the bat, only to watch in amazement as it sailed over the fence. Considering Bryant hit a home run in about one out of every fourteen minor-league plate appearances, it would not surprise me if he goes the rest of his career without a streak of 92 plate appearances without a home run. The Cubs win expectancy jumped to 61.1 percent with the home run, but the optimism would be short-lived.
Bottom Play (WPA): With the Cubs still leading 3-2 in third inning following Bryant’s home run, Adam Lind came to the plate with the bases loaded and nobody out. Lind hit a rocket ticketed for the right field corner and multiple Brewers runs, but it instead found the inside of Anthony Rizzo’s glove for a tough-luck out for Lind (-.085). Unfortunately for the Cubs, Travis Wood fell behind the next batter Khris Davis 3-0, and proceeded to deliver a get-me-over 87-mph four-seam fastball that was smoked into the left-field corner for a two-run double. Wood clearly let up on the pitch, as his four-seam had been sitting at 90-mph, including the two pitches just before.
Davis’s double led the Brewers in WPA at (.207), and put all of the momentum right back on their side by launching their win expectancy to 75.7 percent.
Key Moment: Following a leadoff single by Jean Segura in the third, Hector Gomes hit a groundball to Russell for a double-play opportunity. Instead of starting the 4-6-3 twin-killing, Russell committed his fourth error in just 16 games. The error was the catalyst for the three-run inning that the Brewers would never look back from.
Russell continues to try and adjust to the positional switch on the fly, but his comfort level just doesn’t seem to be high. Russell’s hands were his strongest defensive calling card coming into the majors, but his four errors at second base match his entire 2014 total over 62 games at shortstop. This will continue to be a story to follow as Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara strive to regain their major-league status. If the errors continue, it may become evident that Russell is better suited for the hot corner, pushing Bryant to left and leaving second base for one of Baez, Alcantara, or Tommy La Stella.
Trends to Watch: On a positive note for Russell, a third-inning single to right extended his hitting streak to 12 games. It’s been an interesting start to Russell’s career, as while his strikeout rate hovers around 42 percent, his slugging is a robust .474. His resultant .271 TAv is healthy for a middle-infielder, but his unsustainable .448 BABIP highlights the need for Russell to get his strikeout totals in check to continue being productive at the plate. Russell’s inside-out approach leaves him swinging less often, and also making less contact on inside strikes than pitches middle-out. Scouting reports have clearly identified this trend, attempting to jam him inside with regularity. Russell has drawn just two walks, suggesting the need for an adjustment to his two-strike approach.
Travis Wood struggled for the second start in a row, giving up six runs (four earned) in just four innings pitched, spiking his ERA to 4.96. In Wood’s last unsuccessful outing, he inexplicably abandoned his effective two-seam fastball, throwing just 14 after averaging 32 over his first three starts. Wood went back to the two-seam tonight, throwing it on 28 of his 84 pitches. Unfortunately for Wood, his command was not sharp, as he left far too many pitches up in the zone that resulted in consistent hard contact.
Wood must find his command to be effective, as the quality of his “stuff” simply does not allow him to make mistakes in the upper half.
Edwin Jackson also had his second miserable outing in a row, failing to record an out while allowing two walks and three earned runs. As health slowly returns to the bullpen, Jackson may quickly find himself squeezed out if he continues to allow free passes and hard contact.
The Cubs bullpen did have one stellar 1-2-3 inning on the night, and it came from David Ross. In 695 career games spanning 14 seasons, it was the first appearance at any position other than catcher for Ross. Joe Maddon is really taking to heart the challenge of utilizing three catchers on the active roster.
The Cubs have begun hitting home runs of late, but that may be overshadowing a dark strikeout/walk trend. Over the past three games, Cubs batters have struck out 37 times, while walking just five. An offense stands no chance of continued success with K/BB ratios as such. Look for Maddon to place an emphasis on improving his young hitters’ two-strike approach in the coming games.
Coming Next: The Cubs seek to avoid losing their second consecutive series to the Brew Crew, facing off at 1:10 on Sunday. The Cubs send Kyle Hendricks (4.17 FIP, 1.28 WHIP) out against struggling former Cubs hurler Matt Garza (5.45 FIP, 1.50 WHIP). A Cubs win would keep them from losing their third consecutive series all against Central Division opponents. The contest will be played on Mother’s Day, so don’t forget to call your mom and tell her how much you love and appreciate her!