Can He Pitch, Though?

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into the season, the Cubs pitching depth was a potential point of weakness for a team that was looking to compete in 2015. They did sign Jon Lester, but as the season has gone on it’s become clear that the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are still a point of weakness and it doesn’t appear that they’ll get any better. Let’s take a look at the Cubs rotation on the whole and see if we can figure out if there’s anything they can do to bolster their starting staff.

Lester/Jake Arrieta

Lester was the high-priced, top-of-the-rotation arm the Cubs wanted to pair with Arrieta to stabilize the rotation. Lester had an uneven start, but on the whole the trend arrow is pointing up. Arrieta started the season off strong, but he had two starts in a row that were below average, muddying up his 2015 line for a bit, before bouncing back and delivering a gem Tuesday night.

Can they pitch, though?

The answer here is an easy yes, but there’s perhaps another question that people have been asking themselves.

Can they hold runners, though?

Well, no. Base stealers have been successful seven of eight times against Arrieta and well, we all know what the scouting report on Lester’s ability to control the run game is. That’s not the complete story, however.

How much does it matter, though?

Not much. No, really, hear me out. In 2014, Arrieta allowed a successful stolen base 24 times in 29 attempts. He posted a 2.53 ERA and 4.0 WARP. In short, he was good. Lester had two disaster starts to begin the year, but since then he’s been solid, posting a 2.87 ERA and 30 strikeouts over his last 31 innings. He’s also allowed six stolen bases in seven attempts over that stretch.

Having little control over the running game matters a lot when you’re a fringe guy trying to make a rotation. When pitchers don’t have premium stuff, they tend to learn how to get outs any way that they can. Guys with fringe stuff have a deep bag of tricks they go to in order to make up for their deficiencies. For guys like Lester and Arrieta, controlling the running game just doesn’t matter as much as the twitter hot take machine made it out to be.

Jason Hammel

In 2014, Hammel proved more than serviceable in Chicago before being shipped out to Oakland with Jeff Samardzija and performing at a below-average level. He’s off to a strong start again this year with a 7-1 K-BB ratio and a 3.39 FIP.

Can he pitch, though?

Yes, but ultimately he works best as a fourth starter rather than a three. Hammel does some things well, but I don’t think most teams would be comfortable giving him the ball for game three of a playoff series.

Travis Wood/Kyle Hendricks

Wood continues to distance himself from a surprising 2013 campaign. The home-run ball is killing Wood, as he’s given up six longballs in 32 2/3 innings. Hendricks gets by on guile, but he doesn’t have major-league quality stuff. His particular blend of IQ, pitchability, and repertoire can work in short bursts, but it gets exposed over the long haul.

Can they pitch, though?

No. Not for a playoff team and definitely not together. I’ve said this on twitter a few times, but if you want to earn the right to play in October, the combination of Hendricks and Wood is not a good bet to carry you there.

So, now what?

The Cubs have a competent top of the rotation, a pitcher who best fits in the fourth spot in a rotation, and two pitchers who haven’t shown much to inspire confidence in their ability and production moving forward. It’s one thing to point this out, but the next step for the Cubs is the most difficult.

If the Cubs remain true to their mission and try to compete for a playoff spot this year, they will have to address their starting rotation and bullpen, via either MiLB promotions or trades.

Let’s take a look at their internal assets to see what’s realistic in terms of organizational help.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards transitioned to the bullpen in 2015 and thus far it’s been a mixed bag, but a reliever future was always a strong possibility for Edwards. He has a quick arm and a big fastball to go along with a plus curveball. The strikeouts are definitely there: he has 24 in 16 2/3 innings for Double-A Tennessee. The walks are definitely there as well, unfortunately, as he’s struggled with his command all year. If Edwards does come up this year, it’ll be after he starts showing an improved ability to spot the fastball.

Pierce Johnson

The ultimate determining factor in where Johnson slots into a major-league rotation will be how well he can maintain his release point. Johnson has an impressive repertoire and he debuted a cutter last season during a rehab start in Beloit. That gives him four pitches, two plus and two that can be solid average. It’s the type of starter kit that you want for a pitcher. Johnson started the year in extended Spring Training with a back injury. It’s pushed back his ETA and he won’t likely be ready to contribute to the MLB rotation until very late in the year. The makings are there for a no. 3 starter, but he might not be able to help much this year due to his injury set back.

That’s about it

Sure, Tsuyoshi Wada, Dallas Beller, and Eric Jockisch all present options, but they’re on a similar tier of both Wood and Hendricks. They might be improvements, but they’re incremental ones. I’m still in the “Corey Black, reliever” camp, Duane Underwood is setting High-A on fire with his hellish fastball-curveball combo and the cambio is coming along, but he’s still a ways away from contributing at the major-league level. Jen-Ho Tseng is polished and advanced, but he’s not ready for the majors either.

So…trade a shortstop to the Mets?

This one is gaining some steam lately with the Mets being in town and writers from both beats can start hammering their GMs about the trade possibilities that seem so obvious. The pieces work, but speculating on a trade with the Mets, or any other team for that matter, gets messy because there’s so much we don’t know. We don’t know what each respective team has done from an internal evaluation stand point. We don’t know how much the Mets value Syndergaard or how much the Cubs value their cadre of shortstops. Really, the team’s opinion is the only one that matters from a real world perspective.

However, while the exact machinations of what the Cubs could do via trade remain obfuscated, it’s becoming clear that they have to make a serious move to get a pitcher if they have championship aspirations in 2015. There is a very good free-agent starting pitcher class this offseason, but those pitchers don’t do much to solve the Cubs 2015 pitching issues.