Revisiting the up and down Ride of the Rizzo for Cashner Deal

Photo courtesy of Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

In January of 2012, the newly installed Chicago Cubs front office acquired Anthony Rizzo with the hopes of locking down first base for years to come. That’s the same Anthony Rizzo that’s playing out of his mind right now (1.082 OPS, just one of dozens of stats I could throw at you to prove this point) and has elevated his game to All-Star status. It’s easy to see what he’s doing this year and assume the Cubs won that trade, but that opinion has largely fluctuated in the three-plus years since the move was consummated.

As the Cubs visit San Diego to take on Rizzo’s former team, let’s take a closer look at the trade and how it marked the beginning of a new era for the Cubs and how it shaped the way this organization made personnel decisions.

Flash back to 2011—the year before Theo Epstein and company arrived in Chicago. That year’s Cubs were a miserable team with a desperate need for pitching. The best pitcher on that squad was Matt Garza and his 3.78 DRA. Everyone else was, well, to put it bluntly, terrible—the rotation featured an imploding Randy Wells, the aging Rodrigo Lopez, and long-time non-prospect Casey Coleman. Retreads Doug Davis and Ramon Ortiz managed to combine for 11 strats—so it’s no surprise the Cubs lost 91 games and finished 25 games out of the NL.

But there was a bright spot: a 24-year-old, first-round fireballer named Andrew Cashner. His minor-league numbers were fantastic and his stuff was overpowering. Cashner made just one start that year, missing a large chunk of the season with a shoulder issue. However, that lone start stayed with most Cubs fans as he pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowed two hits, and just one earned run. “At least we have a young gun coming in who can slot into this mess of a rotation,” said Cubs fans at the time.

And then things got a little crazy—Epstein showed up at a Wrigleyville Starbucks and all of a sudden the front office was cleaned out in favor of the new three-headed monster of Epstein, Hoyer, and Jason McLeod. Cubs fans were hopeful that the era of mediocrity would be put to rest.

And one of the first orders of business was to trade Cashner for Rizzo. Cubs fans were nervous: We thought we needed pitching and now there went our best young pitcher in exchange for a player many had little knowledge of. The trade also gave us our first exposure to a more nuanced evaluation of talent. Pitchers tend to get hurt more often than position players, so they traded a young, high-upside pitcher for a young, high-upside first baseman who they themselves had drafted and who Hoyer and McLeod later traded for during their short stint heading up the Padres front office. Also, it wasn’t just his talent that they liked, but his makeup. Countless stories were written about this young man’s work ethic and ability to overcome all odds—including how he beat cancer. That makeup would turn out to be a crucial component of this trade and the evaluation of the player.

Now let’s get back in our time machine and cruise to the end of 2012. After admitting he had called Rizzo up too early with the Padres, Hoyer decided to start him at Triple-A while giving Bryan LaHair the chance to start at first base. LaHair did a great job for a few months, even making an All-Star team, but faded down the stretch. With Rizzo absolutely making a mockery of Triple-A pitching (1.101 OPS), the Cubs finally brought him up on June 26, and thus started the Rizzo era. In 87 games with the Cubs that summer, he slashed .285/.342/.463 with 15 doubles and 15 home runs. Cashner, on the other hand, got hurt again and—while he put up good numbers in limited starts at Triple-A—ended up throwing out of the bullpen for the Padres.

An everyday stud first baseman for a young, fireballing reliever? Cubs fans were convinced that Epstein and his magic touch had won this trade in a landslide.

But then came 2013, and the tables were turned. Cashner got (mostly) healthy and threw 175 innings of quality baseball (3.10 DRA) in 26 starts. Padres fans finally got to see what Cashner could do when healthy, and Cubs fans yearned for the former North Sider every time Edwin Jackson’s turn in the rotation came around. Rizzo, on the other hand, was going through a sophomore slump. His batting average cratered (.233 overall and a measly .189 vs left-handed pitchers) and while he drew a fair amount of walks (11 percent walk rate), hit for power (.186 ISO and 23 home runs), things weren’t looking nearly as good as they were the year before. It didn’t help that Starlin Castro was going through his own down season and Cubs fans began to feel nervous about the long-term prospects of their shortstop and first baseman, both of whom had recently signed contract extensions, seemingly locking them into their respective spots for the foreseeable future.

At that point, it was way too early to tell who got the upper hand on this trade. The next summer would give us a better idea of how good each player could be. Rizzo had a great bounce-back season: he hit 32 home runs, got on base at a .386 clip, slugged .527, and provided Gold Glove-worthy defense at first. A big part of that turnaround was his improved ability to hit southpaws—Rizzo actually managed to hit lefties better than righties, to the tune of a .928 OPS. That makeup we talked about earlier? It was expressing itself in Rizzo’s constant desire to improve himself in all facets of his game. The Cubs couldn’t have asked for more from their 24-year-old first baseman.

Over in San Diego, Cashner showed flashes of very-goodness, but just couldn’t stay healthy, making just 19 starts with a 4.13 DRA. As pitchers are wont to do, he couldn’t stay on the mound long enough to make Friar fans feel good about the trade.

Then 2015 happened. Sure, it’s still early in the season, but here’s what we know so far: Rizzo’s 2014 doesn’t appear to be an outlier, in fact, he actually looks to be getting better. He’s getting on base at a ridiculous rate (.469), he’s one of seven players who has a walk rate above 10 percent (13.3) that also eclipses his strikeout rate (a measly, especially for this day and age, 10.2 percent), and he’s daring pitchers to try to come inside on him. Sometimes he gets hit (11 hit by pitches) and sometimes pitchers make a mistake and he takes them to church (eight home runs).

Simply put, Rizzo is a beast. If it weren’t for the amazing seasons other NL first basemen are having, he’d be an automatic All-Star starter—and knowing how rabid the Cubs fanbase can get during a good season, that’s actually not out of the question. As for Cashner, he’s doing… okay. He’s healthy, which is what the Padres want to see. His ERA is pretty good (3.24) despite his 1-7 record, but his DRA (4.49) shows he hasn’t been as effective as years past.

All in all, as of early 2015 it feels pretty safe to say the Cubs have won out on this trade…so far. But that’s not the most important part of the trade—that would be how the Cubs front office evaluated each player in making the decision. They were intimately familiar with Rizzo from their days in Boston, so they knew him as a player and as a person. They felt his makeup would help him blossom into the best possible player he could be—in fact, it could be argued he’s turned out even better than many expected. If Rizzo stopped growing and topped out at his 2014 version, that would have been great. Cubs fans would’ve had no reason to complain. But it’s that makeup and drive that takes a very good player and allows him to grow into a great player, which is what he’s turned himself into this year. As for Cashner, the Cubs decided they would stockpile bats (in an era of declining offense) and worry about the pitching when they were closer to contention, so that allowed them to feel good about moving him. With his health concerns and inconsistent performance, Cashner will have to put up some very good seasons in the future to turn this call around: The Cubs took this one in a landslide.

Regardless of the end result of this particular trade, the move marked the beginning of a new, smarter way of evaluating talent and making moves. One that North Siders have been craving for years and years. It feels amazing to have a front office that—for once—seems to be ahead of the game when it comes to evaluating talent. I can’t wait to see what they do next.