What the Cubs May Do with Their Soon-To-Be Rule 5 Eligible Prospects

Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I’m anxious. We all know that the Cubs have the best farm system in MLB thanks to guys like Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell, and the other half-dozen names you’ve been bragging to your coworkers about. But there are other guys, really talented guys, who give the system its depth—and the Cubs could potentially lose a handful of them this year through no fault of their own.

I am of course talking about the Rule 5 Draft that happens at the end of the Winter Meetings. What is the R5D? It’s a mechanism so teams do not stash players in the minor leagues just because they don’t have room for them on their 40-man roster, essentially. The rules are tricky, but in a nutshell guys who are 18 or younger when they sign have to be added to the 40-man roster after their fourth season, 19 or older after three seasons. If they aren’t, then they are eligible for this draft, and the team risks losing the player forever (there’s a chance the player is returned, but it isn’t relevant to this piece. If you’d like to see the full rules, see the link below). At the end of this year, the Cubs risk losing every player listed here according to The Cub Reporter for nothing if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster.

Admittedly, there are some ways to mitigate the risk of a player being claimed. For example, a team would be hesitant to claim a player if he has yet to even reach Double-A, as is the case with Danny Lockhart, Jeimer Candelario, and Shawon Dunston Jr. But the risk of losing the player for nothing is still there. That’s why I believe the Cubs will trade a large amount of these players—especially those at the upper levels—this July.

The list of Rule 5 eligible players is shockingly extensive. Listed on there are guys who could be playing in MLB as soon as next year, such as no. 7 prospect, right-handed pitcher Pierce Johnson, who could have been big-league ready by now if not for a strained lat that the organization is being very cautious with. April’s Cubs Minor League Player of the Month and no. 9 prospect Dan Vogelbach will also be eligible, someone who I’m sure any AL team searching for their designated hitter of the future would covet. And there’s the return for Alfonso Soriano, righty Corey Black, who is lowering the walk totals, increasing the strikeouts, and allowing fewer hits so far this season. There are various other top 30 prospects as ranked by multiple publications who could also pique the interest of other clubs. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that teams are looking to pillage the Cubs’ farm system this offseason.

Of course, this isn’t a problem if the Cubs had the luxury of stashing the players on their roster, but sadly they are limited to 40 spots. Maybe the Cubs can open up room by designating a few relievers for assignment and placing some injured names on the 60-day DL, but that still leaves many valuable prospects subject to the draft. The roster crunch is a real issue Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer need to address within the coming months. Some players may be going for pieces to complement the MLB roster, but my gut is telling me the big acquisitions will be international spending money.

According to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, the Cubs are speculated to spend heavily once again in the international signing period beginning on July 2, just as they did in 2013 when they signed a plethora of highly touted prospects such as Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, and Jen-Ho Tseng. McDaniel has been suggesting that the Cubs’ expenses may reach just about $8 million dollars, while their spending pool is a little over $3 million. Not the complete $5 million may come from trades (teams are allowed to spend over their cap, although at an extra price and penalty), but expect there to be a ton of small trades including these players towards the end of June as drafted players and Extended Spring Training guys are being shuttled onto MiLB rosters.

To back up McDaniel, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, who does great work on the international level year in and year out, has released his top 30 international prospects for the 2015 class and the Cubs are expected to be big players once again. Sanchez has the Cubs rumored as favorites for six of the top 30, reminiscent of the 2013 class yet again.

The rules for international slot money state a team can only trade for up to 50 percent of their original bonus pool in extra money, according to Baseball America. That leaves the Cubs, initially allotted $3,230,700, room for up to an extra $1,615,350. Bonus pools are composed of four slots for each team—totaling up to 120 for all 30—and if one of the slots is being traded, the team must trade the entire amount of the slot value. The only slots worth more than the maximum $1.615 million the Cubs could acquire are numbers 1 through 7, so we would have to see multiple trades to see the Cubs reach their maximum bonus pool.

Where can we expect these players to be traded? Just as the Cubs spent heavily internationally in 2013 and had to sit out 2014, a handful of clubs followed their steps in 2014. As they are handcuffed for the 2015 period, they have money to spare. According to that same Baseball America article, these teams are:

Is Stephen Bruno worth slot number 47’s $420,000 to the Toronto Blue Jays, who have been desperately looking to fill a hole at second base? How about Jeimer Candelario for number 39’s $466,600 to Philadelphia, who could use a third baseman if they decide to move Maikel Franco to first once Ryan Howard moves on?

Remember, these international teenagers are going to sign for a shiny nickel, so the Cubs are going to have to trade players for money, just as they did two years ago when they sent infielder Ronald Torreyes to the Astros.

How can we tell what these prospects are worth? Torreyes, a similar prospect to Bruno in size and bat-to-ball ability, was traded for Houston’s third and fourth slots, totaling up to $784,700, according to MLB Trade Rumors. That same day, the Cubs made possibly the best trade in the Epstein and Hoyer era, acquiring Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop from the Orioles in exchange for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger. If you were already happy about that, here’s something that will make you happier: Chicago also received Baltimore’s third and fourth bonus slots, totaling up to $388,100. In last November’s Cubs-Braves trade that included Tommy La Stella and Arodys Vizcaino, the two teams also exchanged international slot money. The Cubs received Atlanta’s number four slot (worth $142K), but traded their second, third, and fourth slots away. These four slots combined for $968,000, a net gain of $832,000 for Atlanta. La Stella, a fine player, but a second-division talent in the end, was worth a potential late-inning reliever and nearly one million dollars in slot money. The Cubs can get their $1.6 million from these Rule 5 eligible prospects.

The Cubs have a ton of almost MLB-ready talent and only so many spots on their 40-man roster. Rather than taking the risk of losing these players for nothing, it would be prudent of them to increase their bonus pool and grab younger prospects who won’t need to be added to the 40-man for many years. Heck, as a Cubs fan you have probably fantasized about trading Vogelbach and more for a big starter in July, but what if that deal also helps you net a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic or Venezuela? Perfectly enough, these four handcuffed organizations are all American League teams, so you know they’re interested in the big bat. This is the luxury of having a deep system of quality ballplayers, but it’s also a price for us prospect hounds. So yeah, I’m anxious. Let’s get the trade season started already!