Photo courtesy David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Top Play (WPA): This game was billed as an exciting match-up between Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, two of the best pitchers in the National League. The game lived up to expectation, with both Scherzer and Lester going seven innings and dominating the opposing lineup. There were several big moments in this game, including the Nationals forcing Lester to throw 34 pitches in the fourth inning and breaking through with the game’s first run, Bryce Harper’s opposite field solo-shot in sixth inning, and the Cubs blowing a golden opportunity to score in the bottom of the eighth.
But no one play was bigger than the performance of Scherzer. In his seven innings, he allowed just five hits, one walk, zero runs, and he struck out 13 batters (.420). Not that pitcher wins matter for much, but he certainly earned his in the 3-0 victory for the Nats. Scherzer’s outing lowered his eye-popping numbers even more, down to 1.51 ERA/1.81 FIP/2.89 xFIP. He is striking out 8.5 for every walk he’s issued this season, and he’s only allowed three home runs in over 71 innings pitched. That’s pretty good.
And for the fans who like to complain about umpires and strike zones, there’s nothing to say about this performance. The home plate ump was giving Lester a little bit of leeway on the outside corner versus right-handers while being a bit tougher on Scherzer. Take a look for yourself:
Bottom Play (WPA): While it’s true the Cubs were utterly dominated in every way by Scherzer, they had every chance to turn the game around once they got into the Nats bullpen. Jorge Soler cracked a pinch-hit double on the first pitch he saw from reliever Matt Grace leading off the bottom of the eighth inning. Anthony Rizzo worked a walk from Grace, putting runners on first and second with nobody out. Nationals Manager Matt Williams turned to Casey Janssen, who was making just his third appearance this season.
He was greeted by Kris Bryant, who just last night had destroyed a baseball that bounced off the new video board and tied the game in the eighth inning. After Bryant took the first two pitches outside, Janssen worked his way back and induced a pop-up. Dexter Fowler moved the runners up a base on a failed attempt at a bunt single, and Janssen got Castro to ground out to the shortstop (-.117) to end the threat.
Unfortunately for Castro, he earns the bottom play of the game to go along with two errors at shortstop. Tough times continue for him, although he did collect two singles.
Key Moment: It wasn’t the game winner or anything, but these days everything Harper does is impressive. He swatted a home run to the opposite field off of Lester in the sixth, turning a 1-0 lead into a 2-0 lead, which was really all Scherzer and the Nat’s needed.
This is all about Harper just being good at baseball. The homer came on a 93 mph fastball that was up and away from the lefty, and this one wasn’t wind aided like the one he hit yesterday. He took a ball that was likely going to be out of the zone and hit a line drive into the left-field bleachers. It’s his 13th homer this month, which is a franchise record and also kind of a big deal. The 22-year-old is currently on pace for about 61 homers this season.
Trends to Watch: It’s been no secret that Castro has struggled this year. He currently is carrying career-lows in both walk rate (3.6 percent) walk rate and OPS (.629). He hasn’t looked like himself at the plate since early April, and his batted ball stats reflect that: 60.7 percent of the balls he’s hit in play have been ground balls and 25.3 percent have been infield pop-ups. Both of these numbers are well above his career averages, as well as the averages for all major leaguer’s. He’s hitting less fly balls and, probably most telling of all, about 20 percent less line drives than he has previously in his career. In general, he just hasn’t hit the ball hard consistently.
Castro has had some better luck at the plate lately, having hit .286 in his last 35 at bats with a .322 BABIP. But over that period he has only one double and has taken zero walks. Regarding his batted ball stats, he’s still racking up ground balls at a very high 58 percent rate. I’m really hoping that he will start to put things together again at the plate and come out of his slump, but I don’t think his recent streak of better luck is an indication that he’s going to anytime soon.
Coming Next: The Cubs (25-21) get a day off to rest up for the Kansas City Royals (28-18), who come in riding a four-game losing streak after having just been swept by the Yankees in New York. It’s hard to call a series in May a “big series,” but this is a match-up against the reigning American League Champions and one of the best teams in baseball. Even if you can’t call it a “big series” for the Cubs, it certainly could be a confidence booster to take two of three after dropping two of three to Washington.
Friday’s game is a 3:05 pm start, and the Cubs will send Jake Arrieta to the mound against Edinson Volquez. Over his last three starts Arrieta has been very good, posting a 2.14 ERA in 21 innings, striking out 24 and only walking five. He’s continued to prove himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, as his 2.95 ERA/2.43 FIP/3.46 DRA reflect.