Top Play (WPA): The Cubs sent Hector Rondon out for his second inning of work in the top of the tenth and the score tied at four. If I said that Todd Frazier reached on an error by an infielder to start the inning, there would probably be a lot of assumption that the error was made by Starlin Castro. And along with that assumption, there would be a lot of angry fans calling for his head and begging for a trade. But it wasn’t Castro, it was Kris Bryant with the bobble.
The next batter was Jay Bruce, who smacked a single to right field and put runners on the corners with just one out. After Bruce stole second base, Rondon got Bryan Pena to strikeout swinging. But Eugenio Suarez hit a single into left field (.178) that scored Frazier and put the Reds up 5-to-4, which ended up being the final score.
Bryant wasn’t the only Cubs infielder with a big mistake in the game, though. Addison Russell made an error on the first batter of the game, allowing Skip Schumaker to reach first and eventually score in the Reds three-run first inning. Castro, on the other hand, didn’t make any errors on the day. But more on him later. For this loss, it was all about errors on batters leading off an inning that lead to important runs.
Bottom Play (WPA): In the bottom of the ninth inning, Chris Coghlan led off with an infield single that he beat out at first base. After Chris Denorfia bunted him over to second base, that left Jonathan Herrera with the chance to win the game. It looked like he had done it, too, when he launched a hard-hit fly ball to center field. Bruce went sprinting after it and had to make an amazing diving play to get to the ball.
At the very least, Coghlan tagged and moved up to third base. That brought up Dexter Fowler with, again, the Cubs just needing hit to win the game. J.J. Hoover, pitching for the Reds, came into the game with a 1.85 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 4.02 xFIP and has only allowed a .426 OPS to left-handed hitters. Fowler fell behind 0-and-2 quickly, and eventually flew out to center field to end the inning (-.128).
The two innings that Hoover was in the game were the best chance the Cubs had at taking the lead after tying the game in the sixth inning. By my count, he had 13 pitches in the strike zone and 17 pitches outside the zone. But outside of Bryant’s leadoff walk in the eighth, the Cubs weren’t able to force any other favorable pitch counts.
Once the Cubs got into the bottom of the 10th trailing by a run and Aroldis Chapman on the mound, there was really little chance of a comeback. Chapman is just too good. He struck out Anthony Rizzo and Bryant, allowed a two-out walk to Miguel Montero, and then got Castro to line out to left.
Key Moment: Remember when I said I’d get back to Castro? He had the big hit of the game prior to the Reds taking the late lead. Bryant led off the bottom of the sixth with a single and, after a groundout by Montero, Castro came up to the plate against Johnny Cueto. Castro pulled a 1-2 pitched down the line and onto Waveland avenue to tie the game at four, giving the Cubs new life on the day.
Trend to Watch: The two-run homer by Castro tied the game and got Jason Hammel off the hook. You have to hand it to Hammel, as he came into the game with a 2.76 ERA/2.95 FIP/2.92 xFIP and was coming off of a dominating start against the Washington Nationals. He clearly didn’t have his best stuff, walking three men (one intentionally) in his five innings and allowing four runs (two earned). He kept the Cubs in the game the best he could, and they had every opportunity to win. Dare I say, that’s the kind of thing aces do?
Hammel came into the game having only walked nine batters in his previous 11 starts this season. His three walks against the Reds tied a season high, matching the three he walked against the Brewers on May 8th. He had only walked three batters in his previous four starts, and has an insane 8.44 K/BB rate. That kind of success may not be sustainable, but there certainly is something about Hammel and the Cubs. In 183.2 innings pitched in a Cubs uniform, Hammel has a 2.89 ERA with 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9.
Coming Next: The Cubs (32-27) have two games left against the Reds, with Kyle Hendricks facing Mike Leake tonight at 6:15pm. Hendricks has been pretty good overall in his last six starts, posting a 2.84 ERA in 38 innings pitched, with 32 strikeouts to just seven walks and three home runs. He only went five innings and 84 pitches his last time out, and the Cubs need a long outing from a starter to rest the bullpen a bit. They need a strong performance from Hendricks.
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