Top Play (WPA): Things weren’t looking great for the Cubs in the bottom of the third inning. Enrique Hernandez had just homered to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead, and Cubs starter Tsuyoshi Wada had left the game with an apparent shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw had looked very comfortable against Cubs bats the first time through the order. But this all changed when Kris Bryant stepped into the box and delivered a two-strike, two-out, two-run homer into the newly Kristened (sorry) right-field bleachers (.259).
This was the first opposite field home run of Bryant’s career, and in the eighth inning he would make this his first multi-homer game as well. It broke him out of a mini-slump—he had gone hitless during this weekend’s series in Minneapolis. This could have been just a small sample-size spell of bad luck, but a quick look at Bryant’s pitch data in May vs. June might help explain a bit of the story.
May:
June:
These endpoints are very arbitrary, and sample sizes are small, but there is a fairly clear trend suggesting that Bryant is seeing more and more low pitches over time. This is likely indicative of the league adjusting to Bryant, who has had a bit of trouble reaching (and staying off of) pitches at or below his knees. He has also seen an extremely small percentage of pitches in the strike zone this month, and swings like this (his second home run of the night) make it abundantly clear why that is the case. Bryant might struggle for a bit, but he will eventually adjust if pitchers continue to pitch him like this. In any case, it is a testament to his power that he is already inspiring this sort of conservative pitching approach from hurlers across the league.
Bottom Play (WPA): James Russell induced a 4-6-3 double play against Joc Pederson to preserve what was then a 2-1 lead in the top of the sixth (-.082). Addison Russell made a slick snag and throw to Castro at short to start this up and continues to show impressive defensive potential in the infield. Pederson would show his impressive power in the ninth, launching a solo homer to center against Jason Motte, but it would be too little too late for the Dodgers.
The Cubs bullpen was fantastic in this one, and Travis Wood stepped up and saved the day in the wake of Wada’s injury. He threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings, and the rest of the bullpen—fresh off of Jake Arrieta’s complete game yesterday—was able to hold the lead.
Key Moment: The Cubs were able to take advantage of some small ball and base-running mistakes from the Dodgers in the third. With a man on and no one out, Kershaw attempted a sacrifice bunt on Wood’s first pitch of the night, but ended up hitting it hard right back at Wood, who was able to start a 1-6-3 double play. Wood then walked the next two batters he faced, but David Ross—who had another excellent defensive game behind the plate—was able to catch Yasiel Puig wandering egregiously off of second for a pick-off to end the inning. With Kershaw on the mound, it was essential for the Cubs to keep the score close early, and the Dodger’s lack of fundamentals allowed them to do so.
Trends to Watch: Injuries. Two players left the game tonight for the Cubs, and blemished what was otherwise an absolutely fantastic win against one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Cramping in left deltoid muscle for Wada. #Cubs will evaluate him again tomorrow.
— Bruce Miles (@BruceMiles2112) June 23, 2015
It was a hot and steamy night at Wrigley so if this really is just cramping, it would be understandable. Shoulder injuries of any sort are always worrisome, though, and if Wada is forced to miss any time at all it will re-spur the fifth starter debate. Speculation is just that at this point, but it seems likely that the Wood/Edwin Jackson/Jacob Turner trio would make up the most obvious options if Wada is forced to the DL. Turner is rehabbing in Double-A right now and could either slide right into Wada’s spot or replace Wood/Jackson in the pen. If the Cubs are wary of rushing Turner back, Dallas Beeler might make for an interesting option as a spot starter as well.
Fowler departed tonight's game with a sprained left ankle.
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) June 23, 2015
Perhaps more worrisome is the injury to Dexter Fowler, who left the game in the bottom of the fifth with a sprained ankle. Unless this sprain is incredibly mild, Fowler is likely to be forced—like Jorge Soler—to the 15-day DL. Even though his offensive numbers are a bit lower than usual this year, losing their center fielder and leadoff hitter for any length of time would be very hard on the Cubs, who are pretty thin in their outfield depth in the first place. (Although Matt Szczur homered off of Kershaw Monday night as well!) Soler should return fairly soon, but in the meantime the Cubs are likely to need one of Arismendy Alcantara or Junior Lake to fill the void. Alcantara has been hitting well in Triple-A, slashing .267/.328/.507, but his 24.3 percent strikeout rate in Iowa is still perhaps a bit higher than the Cubs would like. Lake could fill in serviceably for a few days but—as we saw a few weeks ago—is unlikely to be a viable longer-term MLB replacement. A trade is another possible way to strengthen the Cubs outfield, but a better option might not be readily available on the market right away. In the meantime, all the Cubs can do is hope for a speedy recovery from Fowler and Soler.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to build off this fantastic and unlikely win, as they face the Dodgers again at Wrigley on Tuesday evening. The pitching matchup won’t get much easier, though, as Zack Grienke will take the ball against Jason Hammel. Grienke has been absolutely lights out this year, posting a 2.45 DRA that is good for seventh in the MLB, and a 1.81 ERA that is good for third. In the early going, these numbers are actually better than Kershaw’s. Hammel has continued to be very solid for the Cubs, though he struggled a bit against Cleveland his last time out. The Cubs would probably be happy to split this series, but if they can find a way to win tomorrow night against Grienke, then this series will start reminding me of the Mets series in May, when the Cubs were able to defeat each of Jacob DeGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Jonathan Niese en route to an exciting and improbable sweep. Here’s hoping.
Lead photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports