Top Play (WPA): The starting pitching dominated on both sides in the rubber game of this three-game series. Mat Latos allowed just a first-inning run on a wild pitch, and Kyle Hendricks was at his best. Hendricks had guys off balance all afternoon, inducing weak ground balls and even striking out six batters.
But crafty righty ran into some trouble in the seventh inning. Christian Yelich worked a six-pitch walk to lead off the inning, putting the tying run on first base. Adeiny Hechavarria then jumped on the first pitch he saw from Hendricks, lining a single (.111) to Dexter Fowler in center field, putting runners on first and second, still nobody out, and the Cubs clinging to just a 1-0 lead. That got Miguel Montero out to talk to Hendricks while Joe Maddon got the bullpen up and moving.
Bottom Play (WPA): The very next pitch was an 81-mph changeup to Justin Bour, and he reached out for it and popped it up (-.105), resulting in a fly out to left field that didn’t advance the runners. The pitch started looking like a curveball that was going to drop in the zone, but ended up riding outside.
Cole Gillespie was next, and he took a first pitch strike before flying out to center on another changeup, this time one that was low and in the zone. With two outs and runners still on first and second, Chris Bosio came out to remind Hendricks that he only had two outs and wasn’t out of it just yet. You may recall that Hendricks got into a similar jam against these same Marlins earlier in the year in Miami.
After allowing the first three to reach in the fifth inning and holding a 2-1 lead, Hendricks struck out Giancarlo Stanton. He induced a pop up to the shortstop from Bour, getting to within one out of getting out of the inning without any damage. But Marcell Ozuna hit a bases-clearing double that turned the game around. This time, Hendricks got Derek Deitrich to ground out weakly on yet another changeup, and he escaped with no damage done.
Hendricks has been really good since the middle of May. Starting with his complete-game shutout victory over the Padres in San Diego, he has a 2.93 ERA in 55 1/3 innings pitched over nine starts. On the season, he now has a 3.82 ERA/3.41 FIP/3.49 cFIP.
Key Moment: In the bottom of the first, after Dexter Fowler flied out to center field to open the frame, Chris Coghlan patiently worked a four-pitch walk ahead of Kris Bryant. Bryant followed with a sharp single just beyond the reach of Hechavarria, with Coghlan advancing to third to put runners on the corners and just one out. Miguel Montero struck out, leaving the inning up to Starlin Castro. After taking a first pitch strike, Castro took two straight balls.
The second ball was a fastball that hit in the dirt, possibly off catcher Jeff Mathis’ shoe, and bounced straight out of play. That allowed Coghlan to score from third base and the Cubs took a 1-0 lead.
The Cubs did add an insurance run in the eighth inning when Coghlan lined an RBI-single to right field of Carter Capps, but the one run would end up being all they would need. Jason Motte came in and closed out the 2-0 victory without issue in the bottom of the ninth.
Trend to Watch: The key player in the game was Chris Coghlan, and he’s been one of the hottest hitters on the team lately. Check out the extreme difference for Coghlan over the last month and a half:
It’s hard to say that the guy we’ve seen since the middle of May is who Chris Coghlan “really is,” because I don’t think he’s as good as the .343 BABIP looks. A lot of the success he had last season came on the heels of a 25.6 line drive percentage, which was a career high and about five percent higher than the league average. His line-drive percentage is at 20.3 percent this season, which is fairly normal.
Despite being extremely streaky, the stat line you see on Coghlan right now is pretty much who he is. He’s not going to have a really high average, he will get on base at a decent rate, and his .338 wOBA puts him fourth in the National League among left fielders.
Coming Next: The Cubs (44-36) have a really big four-game series at home with the Cardinals (53-28), whom they trail in the division by 8.5 games. The probable pitchers that we know for sure are Jon Lester versus John Lackey on Monday at 7:05pm and Jason Hammel versus Michael Wacha on Wednesday at 7:05pm. It’s likely Jake Arrieta will start one of the ends of the double-header, while the Cubs have yet to make a decision on who will start the other game.
It won’t be Donn Roach since he started on Sunday at Iowa, and that may be best, since his last start was against these Cardinals and resulted in an 8-1 shellacking. Fellow groundball specialist Dallas Beeler is the likely choice, as Roach took Beeler’s start on Sunday. Beeler made two starts for the Cubs last season, earning a 3.27 ERA in 11 innings, while striking out six and walking seven. The dark horse candidate for a spot start could be Carlos Pimentel, who has been really good at Triple-A this year (3.01 ERA, 58 hits, 38 walks, and 70 K in 74 2/3 innings) and is in line to pitch on his normal rest on Monday. The I-Cubs could hold him out of his start and send him to Chicago as the 26th man on Tuesday, instead. But again, Beeler is probably the safe choice if you’re betting on who makes the start.
Lead photo courtesy of Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports