Poised for a Second Half Surge—Weather Permitting

I grew up in Guatemala, and even though it’s nowhere near as hot as everyone always assumes it is, we definitely don’t have freezing temperatures. At most, you’d grab a sweater because at night it could get “a little chilly” (aka, 55 degrees).

Then I went to college in Boston, and my dad gave me a winter jacket to help me adjust. I assumed that the jacket was all I needed when it got really cold out. When I first moved there, I’d put my new jacket on over my flimsy t-shirt and step out into the harsh, sub-freezing January air.

And proceeded to freeze my ass off.

I’m telling you all this because I want you to know that I can relate to this:

the logo makes jorge soler look like he's wearing a fetish mask pic.twitter.com/JD84ZK8U4T

— Sigh Hersh (@Ugarles) April 23, 2015

In 2015, Opening Night was a miserable 44 degrees (I would know, I was there and it was not fun). Soler’s never had to play in temperatures as cold as he’s seen this year. In looking at the numbers, it’s clear that his “meh” 2015 is partly due to the machinations of one Tom Skilling.

Thanks to previous work by our own Scott Lindholm, we know that weather has an impact on offensive performance:

When the 2014 season came to an end, the Cubs front office didn’t have to worry about right field. Soler looked great out there, and they figured that was one piece they could only tangentially worry about (say, in case of an injury). And now that Soler has hopefully gotten that out of the way for the year, they need him to produce closer to his 2014 levels if they expect to have a chance at making the playoffs.

In other words, he needs to play more like Soler than the right-field fill-ins the Cubs have had to employ when he went on the DL, and I believe the weather has played a major factor so far this year.

Here’s what Soler did in his much-heralded (and much warmer) 2014 debut:

It looks like Soler was comfortable at any temperature (save for a possible mini-slump there in the 70-79 range, which is probably because it reminds him of those frosty Cuban mornings and thus gets him all torn up inside) in 2014, and he showed some solid numbers, especially once the mercury hit the 80s.

Now let’s take a look at 2015, where we introduce two new rows of colder temperatures that have sparked Soler’s super-hero/bank robber attire:

Brrrrr… Soler doesn’t like the cold and these numbers make that pretty clear. The warmer it gets, the more comfortable he is at the plate and the better his results are. I’m sure Soler could eventually adjust to the colder weather, but it’s not like he’s had a bunch of at-bats in which to make those adjustments.

If you take out those sub-50 degree games (of which he had none in 2014), however, you’re looking at a much more robust, Soler-esque .287/.326/.425 slash line. Combine that with his freakish bat speed and the terrible luck he’s had with umpires ringing him up on outside pitches, and you’re looking at a player poised to have a breakout second half despite sporting an unnaturally high .376 BABIP. That is, if the weather starts to cooperate a little bit.

But it’s July already, so shouldn’t we be seeing better production from him already?

If you live in Chicago, you know we’ve had some really weird weather (16 degrees below normal). I can’t remember ever having to wear a jacket in July before, but this year it’s happened a few times. Not only has it affected Soler, but it could also be one of the reasons why the offense has had such a tough time getting into a groove this year—it’s no fun hitting in colder weather.

Want another indicator of how much Soler enjoys the warmer weather? In 58 Spring Training at-bats this year, he hit .345/.400/.524 with four home runs.

If the Cubs expect to contend and make it to the playoffs this year, they’re going to need some reliable production out of Soler. He makes the team better and he strengthens the lineup by adding another power threat instead of having a guy like Chris Denorfia or Mike Baxter in there.

So as long as the weather keeps warming up, Soler should be able to put up some 2014-style numbers. Have those “Soler power” puns ready everyone, because things should start heating up soon. Summer is coming…

Lead photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports