Top Play (WPA): Anthony Rizzo has been quiet of late. So it was nice to see him record a clean single to right field in the first inning, scoring Kris Bryant and putting the Cubs up 1-0 in that inning. That hit improved the Cubs’ chances by 12.1 percent, and put Braves starter Manny Banuelos in a hole that his offense never managed to dig him out of. Rizzo would repeat the process in the ninth inning, driving in Bryant again with a rocket up the middle off of Ross Detwiler, giving him two RBIs on the night and presumably increasing his willingness to, ahem, “bust a move” at the disco dance party after the game.
Bottom Play (WPA): Poor Kelly Johnson. He had a nice opportunity in the ninth inning to really put the Cubs back on their heels. Jon Lester had just lost his no-hitter, and runners were on first and second against former Cubs closer Hector Rondon. Johnson, I’m sure, would have liked nothing less than to lace a line drive into the corner and tie the ballgame. That wasn’t what actually transpired, as Johnson was retired when he lofted a fly ball to left field which was easily caught. That play reduced the Braves’ chances of winning the game by a solid 8.4 percent, and (when coupled with Jace Pederson’s subsequent strikeout) ensured that Lester left with his personal shutout intact.
Key Moment: In the top half of the seventh inning, Lester was working on a no-hitter, and things were tense at Turner Field. Wait, let me rewrite that. In the last part of the top half of the seventh inning, Lester was working on a no-hitter, and things were tense at Turner Field. That’s because, midway through the Cubs’ third turn through the order, the Braves’ official scorer Jack Wilkinson made a fairly consequential change: he ruled Nick Markakis’ first-inning grounder to Bryant an error, rather than a hit. You watch the play, and see what you think:
It’s no Kevin Orie, to be sure. This was a pretty clear error. In any event, with that change, Lester’s night took a turn for the dramatic … literally. It’s definitely the first time all year, and will possibly be the only time all year, where the most consequential moment of the night took place off the field, in the bowels of Turner Field. It was a fairly surreal moment, to be honest. Usually, the tension surrounding a potential no-hitter builds gradually over the course of the game; tonight, fans watching on television were thrown into seventh-inning level tension all of a sudden, and the overall effect was more than a little disorienting. Three half-innings later, A.J. Pierzynski would ruin the no-hitter with a clean single to right, but this was still the emotional center of tonight’s game.
Trends to Watch: I wrote about the offense yesterday, so I won’t repeat that discussion today; that doesn’t mean it isn’t still worth watching. It is. But what I’ll talk about here is Lester’s pitching. I know he didn’t get a no-hitter tonight, but check this out: over his last 28 1/3 innings pitched (in other words, over his last four starts), Lester has a 1.27 ERA. You don’t need me to tell you that that’s really good. It’s too early to say that he’s turned a corner, because seasons take so many twists and turns that it’s irresponsible to draw a straight line between two facts without watching them for a while, but it sure does feel good. A healthy and effective Lester will be key to the Cubs actualizing whatever playoff hopes they have for 2015.
Coming Next: The Cubs’ southern turn concludes tomorrow midafternoon (4:05 Central Time start) as Jake Arrieta takes on the Braves’ Shelby Miller. Miller’s been excellent since coming over from the Cardinals this past offseason, sporting a 94 cFIP and 60 DRA- over his first 113 2/3 innings pitched in a Braves uniform. That DRA- is third-best in the National League, though the somewhat higher (but still excellent) cFIP suggests it might come up a bit as the season progresses. He’ll have his work cut out for him to beat Arrieta, who’s been, if anything, even better, posting a 78 cFIP and 69 DRA- over 121 2/3 brilliant innings pitched. Should be a dandy. After Sunday’s game, the Cubs will board a plane bound for Cincinnati, where they’ll take on a Reds club that is only now emerging from its All-Star break euphoria to realize that they really should be trading just about everyone on their roster.
Lead photo courtesy of Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports