Game 102 Recap: Cubs 4 Brewers 1

Top Play (WPA): This was a sharply played game by the Cubs, and there were several candidates that could have made it for the top play. But statistically, it was an insurance run in the sixth inning that made the biggest difference. Jorge Soler led off the inning by reaching on a throwing error by Brewers second baseman Elian Herrera. This allowed Soler to move to second base, where he stayed after Starlin Castro lined out and Jason Hammel struck out.

But Addison Russell came through for the Cubs, lining a single to center field (.120) that dropped about ten feet in front of Shane Peterson and brought Soler around to give the Cubs a 3-1 lead. Leading by two runs at that point felt like a huge difference, considering that Milwaukee has just traded Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra. The Cubs added on again when Anthony Rizzo hit a solo homer in the seventh (.085) to push the score to 4-1, which ended up being the final.

Russell has been a monster since shortly before the All-Star break, hitting .281/.359/.386 since July 7. Shout out to our own Zack Moser, who just recently detailed the adjustments that Russell has made. Russell has cut down his strikeouts big time, from 31.8 percent prior to July 7 to just 17.1 since.

Bottom Play (WPA): When the score was still just 2-1, the Brewers set up a great scoring chance in the bottom of the fifth inning. After Herrera grounded out to Hammel, starting pitcher Taylor Jungmann doubled past Soler in right field. Scooter Gennett singled to move Jungmann to third base, putting runners on the corners with just one out.

But Jonathan Lucroy swung at just the second pitch he saw from Hammel and grounded sharply to Castro, who started a 6-4-3 double play (-.180) to end the inning. Hammel wasn’t exactly sharp, throwing a lot of pitches early. But he was able to get through 5 2/3 innings and only allowed one run, throwing 103 pitches on the day (66 for strikes). It was a marked improvement from his last game against the Phillies, when he was missing up with his pitches. Check out the difference between that start and last night’s game, as shown by his strikezone plots:

Hopefully, this means that Hammel has moved past the problem he has had with his tight hamstring, which he first experienced in a start against the Cardinals three weeks ago. Without having acquired an ace like Cole Hamels at the trade deadline, the Cubs are really going to need Hammel pitching well down the stretch.

Key Moment: Hector Rondon came into the game in the ninth with a three-run lead. He’s “earned” his job as the closer back, if you buy into the idea that he ever really deserved to lose the job in the first place. At any rate, Rondon allowed a single to Peterson to lead off the inning but shut the door after that, getting a strikeout of Jean Segura followed by a flyout and a groundout. Rondon is the best reliever the Cubs have, and he deserves to be pitching in the ninth inning. He has a live fastball and averages good velocity on his other pitches as well.

I wrote about Rondon back in mid-June, right around the time he lost his job as the closer. It’s worth bringing back up again, as my hypothesis about Rondon was that he was throwing too many sliders (which he often struggles to throw for strikes). Since that article was published, his slider usage has fallen and he’s thrown his sinker quite a bit more frequently.

During that time, Rondon has thrown 19 2/3 innings and allowed just one run, good for a 0.46 ERA.

Trends to Watch: Dexter Fowler went 1-for-5 against the Jungmann and the Brewers, but he’s been on fire since July 4. Over that time, he’s hit .308/.449/.436 with two homers in 98 plate appearances. His season averages are up to .247/.339/.389 and he’s creeping closer to the numbers that the Cubs expected to get when they traded Luis Valbuena for him in the offseason. If the Cubs are going to make a run at the playoffs, it’s going to need to involve Fowler getting on base in front of Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant.

Coming Next: Kyle Hendricks will start for the Cubs (55-47) against the Brewers (44-60) tonight at 6:10 pm. In his last three starts, Hendricks has a 5.40 ERA and is allowing a .747 OPS to opposing batters. He does have 18 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings pitched, but he’s also allowed six walks and 18 hits. Former Cub Matt Garza goes for the Brewers, and he’s been fairly good since he’s returned from the disabled list. In two starts, he’s thrown 11 2/3 innings and allowed only three runs while striking out 11 batters. The Cubs will be looking to win their fourth straight game.