Capping the Crunch: How the Cubs’ Deadline Deals Might Resolve Their Winter Dilemmas

Predicting the actions of the Chicago Cubs’ front office is usually a simple task, not because I’m somehow informed as to what they’re going to do ahead of time, but because Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein think practically. They often go for the safe move. They think of a situation and every single angle from which it could be approached, and from there, they make a sound decision that they believe will benefit the whole organization. A byproduct of this practical approach is usually bored fans—and unfortunately, disgruntled scribes, who toss out allegations such as “Money is an issue!” or “They’re too attached to their prospects!”

I’ve been guilty of it myself. A few weeks ago, after Tsuyoshi Wada left his start against the Dodgers early with a shoulder ailment, all of Twitter began to speculate over which pitcher, if needed, would start in Wada’s place the next time through the rotation. My conclusion was right-hander Pierce Johnson, the Cubs’ seventh-ranked prospect coming into this season. Johnson is Rule 5-eligible this November, and would need to be added to the 40-man roster at that point, anyway. That was the sexy move. Instead, Epstein and Hoyer opted for the practical move. Dallas Beeler came up that Saturday and started.

Goodness, I’m terrible at this brevity thing. This is how the introduction concludes: Let’s try to guess the boring, practical approach this front office will take to the Rule 5 Draft this offseason.

My thought process back in June was to trade the great majority of Rule 5-eligible players, in order to minimize the number of names needed to be added later in the year. You know the common guys. You were probably throwing them into your Twitter argument trade packages for Tyson Ross.

Here we are now in August and the only trades the Cubs made involved Junior Lake (already on the 40-man roster, of course) and two Rule 5-eligible players, Double-A right-hander Ivan Pineyro and shortstop Elliott Soto. That still leaves the Cubs with Johnson, Willson Contreras, Dan Vogelbach, Stephen Bruno, Corey Black, Jeimer Candelario, and others.

Of course, not all of these players would be claimed. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which a team would carry one of these players for a whole season on its 25-man roster, but that isn’t what this is about. We want to avoid the risk of them being taken – and there is a way.

After giving it some thought, I noticed a pattern. The Cubs targeted players on July 31st who, obviously, can help the team in 2015, but at the same time are rentals and won’t be on the roster by the time the Winter Meetings, and in turn the Rule 5, come around.

You see, the Cubs currently have eight players who will be free agents five days after the World Series concludes. Those players are Wada, Rafael Soriano, Jason Motte, Tommy Hunter, Dan Haren, James Russell,  Jonathan Herrera, and Chris Denorfia.  That alone creates eight spots. (In effect, the number will be six: Jacob Turner and Tommy La Stella are currently on the 60-day DL and have to be reinstated onto the roster no later than the opening of free agency.)

Then, factor in the number of role players who could be re-signed to minor-league deals the way Wada was last year, and the logjam of Rule 5-eligible prospects doesn’t really seem like such a problem anymore.

Darn that front office! All these boring moves show me they have the foresight to manage a roster, but where the heck are my sexy trades and transactions?! I’ll say it now and I’ll say it again in the future: when it comes to these Cubs, expect boring and practical (Matt Szczur) over sexy and exciting (Javier Baez).