Top Play (WPA): In an ode to sabermetrically leaning folks everywhere, Dexter Fowler secured today’s top play by doubling to right in the home-half of the fifth (.142), this despite the clutch run-scoring blows that would follow by Kyle Schwarber (.099) and Jorge Soler (.105). David Ross added a bloop single to make it a high-five fifth inning and a 6-1 lead for the Cubbies. They would never relinquish this lead as Jon Lester delivered yet another excellent performance, allowing two earned runs over seven innings.
Bottom Play (WPA): With runners on first and second and no one out in the seventh, Brandon Crawford hit a no-brainer double-play ball back to Lester; but Lester went all Lester…enter Addison Russell:
Russell’s acrobatic double-play turn would eventually be reviewed and upheld, squashing the Giants would-be rally before the damage could be extended beyond one run (-.081). You may have already noticed, but Mr. Russell can play a bit of D.
Key Moment: Fowler may have walked away with the hardware, but it was Schwarber’s tie-breaking, two-strike, two-run single up the middle that felt like the tide-turning moment of the game. Schwarber continues to do things rookies aren’t supposed to do, tallying two more hits, runs, and ribbies.
If Schwarber continues to mash in a similar fashion for the rest of the season (.380 TAv, 1.5 WARP entering today), does he have any chance to win National League Rookie of the Year? Thirty days ago this would have been a preposterous thought, now it’s something to ponder. For the record, dating back to 1950, Willie McCovey owns the distinction for latest call-up to win ROY, having been called up on July 30th, 1959. Schwarber’s six-game stint as DH in June would technically preclude him from a second-place finish to McCovey’s record, but the “for good” call-up date of July 17th would blow away the rest of the field. If you want to have a bit of fun this evening, try comparing McCovey’s rookie stint to Schwarber’s. I believe you’ll be pleased at what you find.
Trend to Watch: After recently reading several outstanding articles regarding Fowler turning his season around, would you have guessed he entered today’s game 1-for-22 in his last five games? I certainly would not have. Dexter jumped back on the wagon today by collecting three hits, including this rocket-shot to left.
As Sahadev pointed out earlier on Twitter, despite Fowler’s aforementioned struggles the Cubs have now scored four or more runs in eight consecutive games (5, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 7) . Their previous longest streak was five consecutive games from April 24th-28th.
Noticeably absent from the game was three-time all-star Starlin Castro. Cubs manager Joe Maddon was adamant before the game that this was not simply a day of rest for the struggling young shortstop, but rather a line of demarcation between Castro as the starting shortstop and Castro as yet-another-moving-piece. This move allowed Maddon to keep Chris Coghlan’s bat in the lineup by shifting Russell to short (he shined, not surprisingly) and Coghlan to second. It remains to be seen whether Coghlan is sufficient enough in the infield for this to be a regular occurrence.
Coming Next: More blood-pressure pills, for Cubs fans. This critical series feels eerily reminiscent to the four-game set against the Dodgers in late June which saw the Cubs beat Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke on back-to-back days, only to drop the final two games and fall into a five-game skid. Kyle Hendricks (3.67 ERA, 4.12 K/BB) gets the ball on Saturday afternoon for the Cubs, while Matt Cain (4.91, 3.00) takes the bump for the Giants. The Cubs lead the Giants by 1.5 games for the second wild card spot.
*Thank you to Rob McQuown for quickly assisting with statistical data
Lead photo courtesy of Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports