Top Play (WPA): You know what it is! Kris Bryant’s second walkoff home run of the year (and first that I didn’t attend in person) sent the Cubs home happy (+0.469). After Jon Lester barely missed a Maddux (complete game shutout, less than 100 pitches), the mood at Wrigley was somewhat dark. Chris Coghlan and Anthony Rizzo had collaborated to break up a gem from Corey Kluber and score a single run in the seventh inning, and at that point it looked like the fates had collaborated to bring the Cubs a win. Then Carlos Santana came to the plate with two outs in the top half of the ninth, and runners on the corners. He lined the ball to left scoring Abraham Almonte, tying the game, and sitting the Wrigley crowd down. Good thing they had Bryant to stand them back up again. Five in a row! Here’s the video. Watch it. Live it. Love it.
Bottom Play (WPA): If it weren’t going to be known as the Bryant Game (one of many this year), it would have been known as the Lester Game, and a big reason for that was the four (!) double plays that he induced from Indians hitters. The most notable of these came in the fourth inning, when Santana (he of the single, above) came to the plate with runners at the corners, a scoreless tie, and just one out. At that point, Indians starter Kluber hadn’t allowed a baserunner, so it looked particularly important for Lester to get out of the inning. On a 2-0 pitch—the third of the sequence—he collaborated with Tommy La Stella to do exactly that, getting a ground ball up the middle that the Cubs’ newest second-baseman turned into a pretty double play (-0.145).
Key Moment: The key moment in this game didn’t lead to scoring. It didn’t even lead to a runner reaching third base. There was a runner on second at the time (Castro), but he was incidental to the play. Do you know what I’m talking about yet? Yeah, it was that moment. In the bottom of the eighth inning, with Castro on second and two outs in the inning, Dexter Fowler took a 2-2 fastball from Kluber right off the hands. The ball must have caught a bit of the handle of the bat, as well, because it made an incredible cracking noise when it struck. As the ball bounced away, my heart leapt into my throat. There’s no player—save, perhaps, Rizzo—who I’d like to see injured less than Fowler. He’s been the beating heart of the Cubs’ lineup since the All-Star break, and any kind of hand injury would keep him out through at least the playoffs (were the Cubs to even make it there without him). Thankfully, Fowler’s injury didn’t appear to be serious, and he stayed in the game. I’m sure there’ll be an X-ray done this evening, and with any luck it shows nothing more serious than some heavy bruising. The Cubs can’t afford to lose players. After the game, there was also this tweet to (hopefully) ease our concerns:
Yeah, I asked him how he was and he said he's fine. Seemed pretty unconcerned. https://t.co/zkZNlTqSiK
— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) August 24, 2015
Trend to Watch: Despite the winning result today, the Cubs new-look lineup is definitely the trend to watch here. After scoring 8, 8, 7, 5, 9, and 9 runs over their last last six games, the Cubs managed just two runs today. It’s too early to establish causation—that’s why this is the ‘trend to watch’ section, not the ‘trend to write home about’ section—but here’s another fact: today, the Cubs moved away from the lineup that has carried them for much of this month and made a few changes. Jorge Soler and Jason Motte went on the disabled list, and were replaced by La Stella and Zac Rosscup, respectively. La Stella got the start at second base, Castro got the start at shortstop, Addison Russell was out of the lineup to be by his fiance’s side while she was in labor (and after a tender groin took him out of yesterday’s game), and Coghlan started in right. Oh, and Lester—today’s pitching hero—batted ninth. I was pretty vocal on Twitter today saying that I don’t love the new lineup, and I’ll stand by that. Time will tell how they produce. For now, it’s something to watch.
Coming Next: The Cubs will look to stretch their winning streak to six games as they enter a critical series against the Giants at AT&T Park on Tuesday. After today’s win, the Giants sit 6.5 games behind the Cubs for the second Wild Card, and are off tonight. With a series sweep, the Cubs could put the Giants away essentially for good: 9.5 games back with 35-ish left to play is not a good place to be. A sweep by the Giants, on the other hand, could be rough. Three and a half games is not a wide margin with all of September left ahead. Point is, there’s a lot riding on this series, and the Giants will do their darndest to keep their dreams of October alive. Starting in tomorrow’s nightcap is Matt Cain (120 cFIP, 180 DRA-), who’s been pretty terrible so far this year: his -1.52 WARP is ranked 680th (!) out of all major-league pitchers, ahead of only eight sorry souls. On the mound for the Cubs, meanwhile, is ace Jake Arrieta (80, 62), who’s ranked sixth. If baseball were played on paper, this would be no contest. But baseball isn’t played on paper, and so we proceed onwards.
Lead photo courtesy Dennis Wierzbicki—USA Today Sports.
I think the causation you can establish is KluBot.
Hmm, gonna have to run the numbers on that one