Cubs in Best Playoff Position Since Depression

Sometimes, you just want to make a simple point. You don’t need a lot of tricky analysis to do it, and you want to get it across quickly. Here’s the point I want to make: The Cubs are going to be fine. Here’s why I think so: The Cubs are 7.5 games up on their closest competitor (San Francisco), with just 20 games left to play. And that, as will become clear momentarily, is a pretty heady position to be in. Here’s how previous Cubs playoff teams have been positioned at the same point in their schedules as the 2015 squad is today (20 games left to play):

And here’s that same chart, with 2015 added into the mix, and with the teams reordered so that those with the largest leads fall at the top. It tells a similar story:

If the Cubs were down more than 3.5 games at this point, it might be worth panicking. (Strike that: It’s never worth panicking.) If that were the case, the 2015 squad would have to make Cubs history to make the postseason. But the 2015 team is, now, actually in a superb position to make the playoffs. No playoff team from the North Side since the depression—and that, a superb 1929 squad—has had so large a lead so late in the season. Sure, the teams from the late Aughts (the 19-Aughts, that is) ran up massive leads. But they were some of the greatest teams of all time: the 1906 squad won 116 games, and the 1907 and 1908 teams won titles. There’s really no recent comparators on the North Side for a lead this big. In 2007, in fact, the Cubs were down by a game at this point in the season. Imagine how you’d be feeling if that were the case today.

“But,” I can already hear you protesting, “what if they (the Cubs, presumably, but you could be talking about your dogs, I suppose) pull a 2007 Mets and collapse on us!? Then what?” Well, I doubt that’s going to happen. Here’s a fun thing: the record the Giants could put up over their final 19 games of the season and still lose to the Cubs, conditional on various Cubs records:

I realize that the final column is redundant, but it’s there to serve a point. The Cubs are in a very, very good position right now. Let’s say you believe the Cubs are going to play .500 baseball over a 20 game stretch to end the season. It’s possible, at least in that it’s happened before this season. But if it happens again, the Giants could go 16-3 and still miss the playoffs. Do you really believe the Giants will go 17-2? Really? They play the Dodgers four times, so will have to face Clayton Kershaw at least once. You want to spot them the other win?

But maybe you think the Cubs will be even worse than .500. Maybe you think they’ll go 5-15 over their final 20. Well, fine. But the Giants would have to finish 12-7 to make the postseason under that scenario. Wanna guess what their record is over their last 19? I’ll save you the suspense. It’s 9-10. “But that’s not fair,” you cry, “that’s just their most recent 19 games.” Well, here’s the thing: the Giants’ record over the nineteen games before that is 9-10 as well. Ok, to be fair, over the nineteen before that, they went 14-5. But over their last three nineteen games periods, they’ve averaged a hair under 11 wins. If they put that up over this next 19, the Cubs could go (wait for it) five and fifteen and still win the Wild Card.

Whew. I’ve just thrown a lot at you, and I could go on. I won’t, because I want to be respectful of your time, sanity, and patience. But I want to leave you with this final point, and leave it clearly: The Cubs are going to be fine when it comes to the postseason. They’re in good shape now, they’ll be in good shape tomorrow, and they were in good shape (most) yesterday(s). Right now, the most appropriate thing for you to do as fans is start worrying about the Wild Card game. The players need to focus on each game, of course, but I’ve found it’s best to leave the playing to the players.

Lead photo courtesy Caylor Arnold—USA Today Sports.