Top Play (WPA): The Cubs might not end up winning the division, but taking three of four from the Pirates moves them ever closer to the coveted first Wild Card spot. This game was, as many of the recent games have been, a wild rollercoaster ride of a baseball game, but the end result was worth it. Given how things went for the Cubs, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the top play belonged to the Cubs’ offense, as there were several big hits for the team today. However, that wasn’t the case, with what seemed like a game-shifting moment coming in a big bottom of the third for Pittsburgh. Gregory Polanco lead off with a shot to dead-center to cut the Cubs’ lead in half at 3-2 (.117), and following a Neil Walker hit-by-pitch (.031), Pedro Alvarez came up with a runner on third and two outs and proceeded to crush a Kyle Hendricks breaking ball for a two-run home run (.237) that put the Pirates on top 4-3. It was the third home run given up by Hendricks on the day, as the righty once again had a very rocky outing.
Bottom Play (WPA): Anthony Rizzo could rightfully be considered one of the heroes of this contest for the Cubs, but he also ended up producing the bottom play of the day. Baseball is just a double-edged sword that way sometimes, ya know? Rizzo came up to bat with the bases loaded and no outs in the top of the first inning as the Cubs were looking to get on the board early. You never want to see such a great opportunity go to waste, and with the Cubs’ best hitter at the plate it seemed like the team had a great chance to bury the Pirates from the get-go. Unfortunately, these things don’t always play out in reality how we’d script them, as Rizzo grounded into a double play (-.073), scoring a run and advancing Kyle Schwarber to third, but also essentially ending the imminent scoring threat the Cubs posed early on.
Key Moment: Baseball is a sport where you can be a zero one second and a hero the next. One of the great things about the sport is the many opportunities it provides for players to make up for a bad swing, play, or pitch later on in a game. As just mentioned, Rizzo had a rough start to this one, but he came through in a big way in the top of the fifth inning. Chris Coghlan doubled to right to lead off the inning, setting Rizzo up for some heroics with a runner on second no outs in the inning. Indeed, Rizzo took advantage of this opportunity and golfed a pitch at his ankles to deep right for a two-run home run that would put the Cubs on top 5-4, the last lead change that the game would see.
Trend to Watch: If you were already feeling like there was cause for concern with the Cubs’ starting rotation, you likely only had those suspicions reinforced by this latest start for Hendricks. The soft-tossing righty only went three innings, allowing four earned runs on six hits and a hit-by-pitch. This is not just a recent phenomenon either, as Hendricks came into this start with a 4.78 ERA since the trade deadline, significantly underperforming his 3.58 FIP in the same time span. What’s worse is that Jason Hammel has been atrocious since the deadline, posting a 4.93 FIP, while Dan Haren has joined the party with a 5.60 FIP since coming over to the Cubs. Yes, if I had to bank on any of them turning it around, I’d certainly bet on it being Hendricks. However, right now, none of the three seem to know how to dig themselves out of their current funks. If this continues, Joe Maddon will no doubt have to get even more creative with his bullpen usage in the playoffs, especially since the Cubs won’t be able to carry the expanded bullpen they’ve been allowed to utilize in the month of September.
Coming Next: The Cubs (85-61) line up with the division rival Cardinals, the first game of three to finish the season series with St. Louis. In a rematch of the September 7th game between these two teams, Dan Haren (3.87 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 4.74 DRA) once again takes the mound for the Cubs, hoping to replicate the success he had the first time around, while the inconsistent yet supremely talented Lance Lynn(3.17 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 4.38 DRA) takes the bump for the Cardinals. The game is set for 2:20 ET and will be broadcast on ABC-7 (WLS).
Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports