The 2015 Ballad of Jon Lester: Start No. 29

Date: September 15, 2015
Opponent: Pittsburgh Pirates
Location: PNC Park

Introduction

Jon Lester opened June by surrendering 11 earned runs and 21 baserunners in 9 1/3 innings pitched at the Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers. Those two teams are now a combined 31 games under .500, and will both probably be looking for new managers come the offseason. Put kindly (but not too kindly), it was a pair of ugly starts against teams who were out of the race by early August.

I dredged up Lester’s better-left-forgotten first week of June only to highlight how the past six days have been about as complete and total polar opposite as those six days. In less than a week, Lester took on the National League’s two best teams by Win-Loss record in their home ballpark, and put up the following numbers:

The numbers are remarkable, to be sure, and Tuesday night was a capper to his week. Before we delve deeper into Lester’s Three Rivers masterpiece, though, I just wanted to say it’s good to be back, fellow Lester Balladeers (dad). Many, many thanks to the great Mauricio Rubio, Jr. and just-as-great Cat Garcia for handling Ballad responsibilities while I was on a brief sabbatical to  transition my Stockholm Syndrome to David Ross for a week or so. As expected, Mau and Cat brought outstanding insight, analysis, and Celine Dion lyrics.

Now I’ve returned for the season’s home stretch, so fasten your batting gloves, because this FIP is about to go way under 3.00.

At Pittsburgh, Lester was dominant, to put it simply and concisely. By Game Score (81), it was his best start as a Cub. It was his first start without allowing an extra-base hit since his last complete game, August 7, 2014 against the Minnesota Twins. Just one baserunner reached third base. Lester finished the game strong, retiring the final seven batters, four via the strikeout.

Lester got ahead of 75.8 percent of batters (25 of 33), his second-highest frequency of the season. Of the 25 strikes, 11 were swings, with three whiffs and seven balls in play, and just one resulting in a hit. The Pirates took 14 first-pitch called strikes, including 12 on four-seam fastballs. As you can see below, of the 14 called strikes 12 were over the plate, and when the Pirates did swing, they chased pitches outside the zone:

Entering the game, the Pirates 67.3 percent zone swing rate ranked fifth lowest in the NL. At least early, Lester and David Ross seemed to realize that if Lester could be near the plate he could steal some strikes. Late in the game, of course, Pirates were all too willing to swing early in the count (see Key At-Bat/Trends section).

The Pirates had been one of the National League’s best offenses in the second half, ranking top three in most categories. Entering Tuesday the team had scored 39 runs in their previous six games.

However, against left-handed pitchers, the Pirates have been middle of the pack in the NL, ranking between sixth and ninth in home runs, ISO, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS, and 12th in walk rate. Of course, they still have Andrew McCutchen, who in 2015 is hitting left-handed pitchers at .349/.430/.547.

On Tuesday, however, it did not matter who Lester was facing. He was in command of all his pitches, consistently hitting his spots and getting ahead in counts. He was at his best late in the game (with some help from the opposing hitters). Scroll down a few centimeters to learn all you need to know (plus a few hundreds more) about Lester’s best start of 2015.

Traditional Line

9.0 IP, 5 H, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 ER

Pitch Breakdown

111 pitches (71 strikes)

The four-seamer was the story of this game. Lester induced just three whiffs with his four-seamer, but picked up five strikeouts. In Lester’s past three starts, he has gone to his four-seam fastball 50.49 percent of all pitches, 10 percent above his season average entering September, and easily his highest frequency in a three-game stretch all season.

The four-seamer has reemerged as Lester’s go-to strikeout pitch. In five August starts, Lester went to his four-seamer just 23.4 percent with two strikes (well behind his curve and cutter)  and it accounted for just six of 30 strikeouts (20 percent). Through three September starts, Lester has gone to his four-seamer 36.3 percent with two strikes, the most of any of his pitches, and it has accounted for seven of 19 strikeouts (36.9 percent). His velocity is up slightly from August (93.51 to 93.17).

Lester went to his changeup a season-high 12 pitches (10.6 percent, second-highest frequency of season, season average is about 4.8 percent). He induced three whiffs and had two for first-pitch strikes, both matching his season high. Interestingly, just four of the changeups came in the final five innings, including none in the ninth inning.

As a result of going to the change with increased frequency, he went to his cutter and curve—his clear number two and three pitches, respectively—about seven percentage points below their combined season usage (42 percent to 35 percent). Lester still picked up four of nine strikeouts and surrendered just two hits (both singles off the cutter). Despite reduced usage, eight of 16 whiffs came from the cutter and curve. While the four-seamer has again been the strikeout pitch in September, 12 of 19 have still come from these two pitches and hitters are slugging .208.

Trends

Remember when Lester surrendered eight home runs in six starts off only cutters and four-seamers? Or less than a month ago when he surrendered three home runs (one each off his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter) at home at home against the Tigers? I mean, on one hand you should remember this because it happened this season. But on the other hand (and for the purposes of my long-winded set-up), Lester’s recent  stretch makes it hard to remember his long-ball troubles.

In Lester’s five starts since that disaster against Detroit, he has not surrendered a home run, and just six extra-base hits. Lester has held batters to just a .262 slugging percentage, with a .253 slugging percentage against his fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, and cutter).

At first, I assumed Lester was doing a better job of hitting his spots with fastballs and keeping them down in the zone. That, however, is not the case. When Lester went through his home-run barrage in May and June, about 35 percent of his fastballs were in the strike zone. During his current five start stretch, that number has remained at about 34 percent. What is happening is batters aren’t doing anything with fastballs when he leaves them over up in the zone. Here is what batters did with fastballs in the zone in May and June:

In August and September, though, batters are doing less (no home runs) with fastballs up in the zone:

Lester’s four-seam and sinker are each about a half mile per hour faster during his current stretch, but I’m not sure if that’s the reason hitters are literally powerless against his fastballs.

Key At-Bat/Sequence

Inning: Ninth Inning
Score: 2-1, Cubs ahead
Situation: Start of inning, bases empty
Batter(s): Andrew McCutchen

How can we not just go right to the ninth inning and the Pirates best hitter? Lester needed 19 pitches to get through the seventh, and then just 18 pitches total to get through the eighth and ninth.

As we mentioned in the Introduction section, McCutchen has hit left-handers at .349/.430/.547 this season. He was just 1-for-6 with three strikeouts against Lester.

While Pirates hitters laid off first-pitch strikes early in the game, McCutchen did not. In his first two at-bats, he was retired on the first pitch, first on a four-seamer away and then on a cutter that ran inside.

The count ran full in McCutchen’s third at-bat, and Lester got him to chase a cutter up and out of the zone for a fly out to right field.

Leading off the ninth, Lester started him away with a 91.6-mph sinker:

McCutchen rolled the ball over for a 6-3 groundout to begin the inning. It seemed like an odd pitch selection, considering McCutchen entered the game slugging .724 with two home runs against sinkers from left-handed pitchers. Upon further consideration, though, perhaps it was brilliant, as Ross and Lester knew he would be quick to jump on the pitch, based on both his affinity for the pitch and earlier aggressiveness against fastballs.

Lester then got Aramis Ramirez to fly to center on a first-pitch, 92.8-mph four-seamer. Entering the game, Ramirez was slugging .182 against four-seamers from left-handers. Lester then got ahead of Francisco Cervelli 1-and-2 with a curve and a pair of four-seamers on the inside corner. After coming inside with the first three pitches, Lester went away with a 94.6-mph four-seamer for a called strike three:

Unlike early in the game, Lester lived on the periphery of the strike zone, and the Pirates were willing to expand their zone:

In this high-pressure situation, Lester and Ross stuck with two of his big three pitches—four-seamer and curve—for five of six pitches. Lester stayed away from the middle of the plate, hitting his corners.

Keep-In-Mind

While Lester just had himself a damn good week, it’s merely a continuation of his run since the All-Star break. In 11 starts, he’s posted a 1.01 WHIP and held opposing batters to .226/.277/.325. In the second half, Lester has been among the NL’s best pitchers, which is made all the more impressive considering the historic runs of Jake Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke. Since the mid-season classic, Lester ranks fifth in FIP (2.56), seventh in innings pitched (73.2), eighth in strikeout rate (26.4 percent), eighth in WHIP (1.01), and 10th in walk rate (4.9 percent). During this stretch, hitters are slugging .333 or worse against all five of his pitches. Mid-September has seen peak Lester, but keep-in-mind (KIM © )  since mid-July, he’s been rolling with an average game score of better than 61.

Conclusion

Lester has delivered in two of the season’s most important series against the NL’s two best teams. His DRA is now at a season best 3.79, and he has not allowed a home run in his past five starts. When teams have gotten to Lester, it’s been because they strung together singles, with a few doubles mixed-in. The four-seamer has returned as a strikeout pitch, and Lester has shown a confidence and willingness recently to go to his fourth and fifth pitches (sinker and change, respectively). Against the Pirates, Lester got ahead early in the count (he had just two 2-and-0 counts) with his four-seamer, and kept the ball in the yard. He also finished strong, putting away the Bucs with little fanfare in the eighth and ninth innings. The Cubs are coming down the stretch of their most promising season in a half-decade, and Jon Lester is pitching as well as he ever has. Let’s raise the Jolly Roger to that.

Season to Date

10-10, 3.38 ERA (3.79 DRA), 1.158 WHIP, 26.4% K, 4.9% BB

Next Start

Sunday, September 20th vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Wrigley)

Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports