This piece, by BP’s Mike Gianella, first appeared at the Baseball Prospectus main site and is exclusively available to BP subscribers. We’ve posted a sneak preview here.
Game Three of the NLDS between the Cardinals and the Cubs shifted to Wrigley Field on Monday night, with the advantage tilting to the Cubs not only because they split the first two games of the series in St. Louis but because their ace was taking the hill. While Michael Wacha certainly isn’t any kind of slouch, it would be difficult to argue that the Cubs didn’t have a significant edge with the white hot Jake Arrieta on the mound.
Despite a stiff wind blowing out at Wrigley, the first three innings played out as expected, with both Wacha and Arrieta pitching effectively. Arrieta pitched somewhat more to contact than usual, but still struck out three batters over the first three frames and limited the Cardinals output to a Jason Heyward double. Wacha wasn’t nearly as efficient, but with his fastball touching 94 MPH on the gun, he managed three punch-outs of his own. Kyle Schwarber opened the scoring for the Cubs in the second with an opposite field bomb on a change that Wacha left hanging a little bit too far over the plate. It was 1-0 Cubs after three innings, but given the strength of both offenses and the way the ball was carrying, it didn’t seem likely that this was going to be a pitchers’ affair.
Sure enough, the middle innings of the game turned into a slugfest. There were concerns entering the night that Wacha might not be able to hang with Arrieta, but it was the presumptive Cy Young winner who struggled first. He walked back-to-back hitters to open the fourth and after a Heyward whiff, Jhonny Peralta narrowly missed a homer, settling for an RBI double. A Baltimore Chop by Tommy Pham brought Matt Holliday home and the Cardinals had a 2-1 lead.Starlin Castro responded in the bottom of the fourth with the Cubs second home run of the night—another solo shot—and Arrieta looked like the top shelf ace he has been all year in the fifth, striking out the side after surrendering a single to Matt Carpenter. It was tied 2-2, but given who was on the mound, the Cardinals had to be happy that they were still in the game.
Wacha had mostly survived off of the fastball to this point, but was now going through the potent Cubs lineup for the third time. He induced a fly out from Dexter Fowler but then Jorge Soler reached base for the eighth consecutive time in the postseason with a single. Then the always-dangerous Kris Bryant came to the plate. Mike Matheny elected not to make a move to his bullpen, hoping that Wacha could get at least one more out. Wacha threw five consecutive fastballs to Bryant and generated a 3-2 count. The sixth fastball was a fat pitch up in the zone that Bryant deposited into the bleachers for the Cubs third home run of the night. 4-2 Cubs.
Now Matheny made his move, but Kevin Siegrist made the same mistake that Wacha did, trying to pump heat pastAnthony Rizzo, who was waiting on a fastball, took advantage of the wind, and made Siegrist pay with the Cubs fourth home run of the evening, pushing the lead to 5-2. On many other nights with Arrieta on the hill the ballgame would be over. But Arrieta’s shutout inning in the fifth wasn’t a turning point. A single up the middle by Holliday was followed by a two-run shot by Jason Heyward and the Cards were back to within a run.
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Lead photo courtesy Jerry Lai—USA Today Sports.