Ranking Russell over Bryant: A Year Later, Does It Hold Up?

It isn’t always easy to remember that just 10 short months ago Kris Bryant and Addison Russell had yet to debut in the major leagues. The joy and surreal nature of the 2015 season left indelible memories that we won’t soon forget, but it also served to firmly establish each of these young men as fixtures on the left side of the Cubs’ infield. They share the same passion for playing the game, as well as an equal desire to win a championship. Beyond that, their games bear few similarities. Bryant’s calling card is his power, while Russell sports rare defensive wizardry as his most notable ability (which is not to take away from his bat). So, why do I find it necessary to compare the two? Because of the uproar—among nerdy Cubs fans, at least, including me—that this list, which ranked Russell over Bryant, created.

Ah, prospect ranking lists. For five long years, they were the highlight of the offseason. I can’t quite recall a phenomenon like this, where an entire fan base shifted their rapt attention to a team’s minor-league affiliates in such an enthusiastic manner, perhaps even more so than the major-league product. In some ways, I actually miss it. It reminded me of being a child and collecting baseball cards. You had to respect the rookies, they were the only cards anyone wanted. This felt a little like that. Anyway…

Russell was, at the time of BP’s ranking, highly touted in his own right. So why were so many people upset about his position above Bryant? The uproar strikes me as the result of a confluence of a number of things: Russell was the new guy on the block for Cubs fans, having arrived over the previous summer, while Bryant had been with the organization for over a year. Russell’s tools are more defensively oriented and may still not have the full appreciation of the broader baseball community, despite intellectually brilliant musings to the contrary. Bryant hits home runs that make the very foundations of light poles quake. And Russell is two full years younger than Bryant, so an aspect of it may have felt premature. Bryant had a billboard. Russell had a lot to prove after a brief stint after returning from from a nasty torn hamstring. The reality was, Kris Bryant had already been dubbed the savior of the world’s most tortured franchise, well before he ever stepped foot on the dirt around third base at Wrigley Field. Whatever Addison Russell was, he wasn’t that.

A year has gone by; has the placement of Russell been justified, or has Bryant cemented himself as the centerpiece the public perceived him to be? Let’s compare their seasons in depth to get a more accurate picture:

Hitting

Bryant: 151 GP, .275/.369/.488, 79 BB, 199 K, .317 TAv, 58.0 BVORP

Bryant’s offensive effort in his rookie season has to be considered an unmitigated success. His BVORP of 58 lapped the field compared to his fellow rookies, with Matt Duffy coming in second while collecting just 35. It was also sufficient to place him seventh in all of baseball in the metric. That said, strikeouts—and specifically his swinging-strike percentage—remain a concern and something to watch, but really there isn’t too much to nitpick overall with his bottom-line statistics. However, shrouding his season are some bizarre anomalies. The first of these is his reverse-split, as he had more success against right-handed pitching (.875 OPS) than he did against lefties (.797). The 145 at-bat sample is just small enough to chalk it up to sample-size variance, so we’ll leave it here for now. Even more perplexing are his home and away splits, where at home he performed at an MVP-level (1.037), while in visiting parks he was essentially replacement level (.693). Even Jed Hoyer had little to offer for explanation, noting at the Cubs Convention that it could possibly be a simple fluke. My colleague Matthew Trueblood agrees with him, suggesting his improvement late in the season points to this conclusion. This is currently something I cannot prove, but I suspect there is causation here that we have yet to uncover. We will continue to monitor this, and it is an issue I will readdress in a midseason update if the pattern persists.

Russell: 142 GP, .242/.307/.389, 42 BB, 149 K, .252 TAv, 10.3 BVORP

We have to assess Russell’s results with substantially more nuance than Bryant’s, as the brilliance of his power does not overwhelm his bottom line as it does with Bryant. Despite the relatively modest 10.3 BVORP total, his combination of power (43 extra base hits) and patience (42 walks) belied the fact that he played his rookie season at the tender age of 21. There is no coincidence that his second half exhibited significant strides made at the plate, as he cut his strikeouts from 83 to 66, and pulled his OPS up from .650 to .744 in the process. As with Bryant, the strikeouts remain reason for pause, but they are likely more the result of a patient approach and a propensity to work deep counts than they are a debilitating issue. In many ways, Russell’s offensive ability has become one of the forgotten assets of this team, but I didn’t see anything last year to dissuade me from believing he can be the offensive force he was throughout his minor-league career. Whether it’s this year or further down the road, I believe Addison Russell will shock some people when he posts a glittering offensive season.

Edge: Bryant, for now

Fielding

Bryant: 141 GP at third base, also appearances at every outfield position and first base, -2.5 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average)

This is the part where I write really nice things about Bryant’s defensive effort and versatility, even while you fully understand that Russell is a sure bet to win the category. Coming into the season, I harbored a bit of quiet doubt that Bryant could stick long term at the hot corner, but his performance proved that those fears were mostly irrational. Because of his height, he does occasionally have trouble staying down on groundballs that skip close to the ground, but all in all his hands appear at least average. His arm strength is above-average, though he did have to fight through an early-season bout of his throws sailing to the baseline side of first base, often leaving Anthony Rizzo in precarious situations with the baserunner bearing down on him. Thankfully, Rizzo managed to avoid injury, and Bryant corrected his issue as the season progressed. The other thing he has going for him is borderline-elite athleticism, making him a plug-and-play option for Joe Maddon in the outfield as well. While I don’t believe he’ll ever merit winning Gold Gloves, I do now believe he can be an average-or-better defensive third basemen for the foreseeable future.

Russell: 86 GP at second base, 60 GP at shortstop, 4.3 FRAA

Sometimes pictures (especially moving ones) say what words cannot:

For three months at second base, and for the entirety of the season after replacing Castro at shortstop, Addison Russell treated us time and again to spectacular defensive wizardry. Perhaps none was more memorable than the above play, a game-ending gem to squash a potential St. Louis rally. Beyond the jaw-dropping plays, advanced metrics also appreciated his efforts. BP’s FRAA credited him with saving 4.3 runs, while Baseball-Reference liked him even more, tallying him with an elite 2.6 dWAR total. For an additional point of reference, Fangraphs suggested he was slightly below-average in his ability to turn double-plays at both second and short, but was absolutely giddy about his range factor by recording an 11.2 during his time at second base, and 5.1 for his limited time at shortstop. What my #notascout eyes saw was tremendous range, extremely soft hands, and below-average arm strength. My expectation for Russell is that he’ll play excellent defense at shortstop for seven or eight years, possibly touching Gold Glove status at his peak. After that, his size may dictate a move to third base, where I expect his hands would make him a defensive stalwart for as long as hit bat can justify the position.

Edge: Russell

Baserunning

Bryant: 13 SB, 4 CS, 2.3 BRR (Baserunning Runs)

If Bryant’s ability on the defensive side of the ball surprised me, his ability to run the bases absolutely stunned me. He busted out of the box like his hair was on fire without exception. He forced errors and rushed throws consistently, while beating out seemingly routine plays with regularity. His 2.3 BRR was second on the team, trailing only notable speedster Kyle Schwarber (wait, what?!) in the metric. There may very well be a 15-20 stolen base season in the cards as he enhances his ability to draw walks and get on base. Between Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt, we’re starting to see a renaissance of young, power-hitting corner infielders who aren’t content with simply mashing and ignoring the rest of the game.

Russell: 4 SB, 3 CS, -1.7 BRR

Despite his athleticism, the ability to run the bases proficiently is something Russell was unable to master last season. He wasn’t much of a threat to steal, succeeding just four times while being caught three. He stole 26 bases in 2013 as a minor-league player, but it appears his leg injuries have slowed advancement in this area. He’s been vocal this offseason about improving his conditioning, even suggesting he dropped 12 pounds as a result of his efforts. He plays the game in a highly cerebral way, which when combined with his athleticism means the raw ingredients of a solid baserunner are in place. This is another area where a few years under his belt and excellent tutelage could greatly enhance his impact on the game.

Edge: Bryant

Conclusion

Any resolution to this comparison must include the caveat that Russell was just 21 years old last year, and likely still has tremendous room to improve. That said, Bryant’s strides defensively and shocking ability on the bases ensure that he deserves the top spot, at least for today. If forced to choose, I’d probably lean towards giving Russell the nod as the player with the higher career upside, but his bat has to make significant progress before he can be considered the all-around MVP-candidate that Bryant already has become. Good thing Cubs fans don’t have to choose.

Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports.