Over at the main site, our Editor-in-Chief, Rian Watt, writes a weekly-ish column called Life at the Margins. In this week’s edition, he explores the seven times since 1945 the Cubs have come closest to a championship. We thought you’d enjoy a preview here:
The Cubs currently have a 12.3 percent chance to win the World Series in 2016. That’s according to BP’s own playoff odds report (POR), which runs one million simulations of the season-to-come, and reports the percentage of those simulations in which a certain outcome (in this case, the Cubs winning the World Series) occurs.
As it turns out, a 12.3 percent chance of winning the World Series is really good. Just two teams—the Indians and Dodgers—have better chances in 2016, according to the model, and there’s a three-point drop from the Cubs to the next-best team on the rankings (the Mets, at 9.4 percent). The POR thinks that the Cubs are about 3.7 times more likely to win a championship than you would expect them to be if such things were left entirely up to chance.
But is this the best shot the Cubs have ever had at winning the World Series? Of course not. Seven times since 1945, the Cubs have made the playoffs but not advanced to the World Series. Surely, on at least some of those seven occasions, there came days when the North Siders’ chances of finally quenching a decades-long thirst were higher—in some cases, quite a bit higher—than they are right now.
How much higher? When were those moments? Let’s find out, with as much precision as we can. Let’s find seven moments where the post-War Cubs were as close as they’ve ever been to winning the World Series. There were probably other moments worth discussing in non-playoff years, of course, but limiting ourselves to seasons in which the team actually made the playoff significantly limits the number of assumptions we have to make. And, as you’ll see shortly, there’s more than enough here to talk about.
We’ll proceed in order, starting in 1984.
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35.5 percent — October 4, 1984. Cubs up 2-0 in the NLCS.
Here’s what actually happened in 1984: The Ryne Sandberg-led Cubs won 96 games under first-year Chicago manager Jim Frey (he’d managed parts of two seasons in Kansas City earlier in the decade), and advanced to the National League Championship Series—then, best of five—to face the 92-win San Diego Padres, led by Tony Gwynn and Kevin McReynolds. The Cubs went up 2-0 in the NLCS on the back of strong pitching by Rick Sutcliffe and Steve Trout, but then lost the last three games (all in San Diego) to drop the NLCS.
So where did their chances stand on the morning of Thursday, October 4th, when they had yet to lose Game Three (or Four or Five)? To work that out, we have to work out (a) the Cubs’ chances of winning any individual game in the series, and then (b) the Cubs’ chances of winning the series, given those game chances. If you don’t like #GoryMath, please feel free to skip ahead to the end of this section—but be warned, the techniques we use here are the ones we’ll use throughout.
To read the rest of the piece, please head on over to the main site.
Lead photo courtesy Jerry Lai—USA Today Sports.
This is an excellent outline of just how close the Cubs have been (or haven’t been). Makes ’84 and ’03 that much more painful because both times they were on the cusp of going to the WS.
Puts ’16 into perspective. “On paper” this is an excellent team, but even if they win the Central and are favored in that first 5-game series you still have to win them.
“There were probably other moments worth discussing in non-playoff years, of course, but limiting ourselves to seasons in which the team actually made the playoff significantly limits the number of assumptions we have to make”
I don’t agree. Read that:
http://sodomojo.com/2016/10/14/seattle-mariners-championship-series/
Best regards, Doris