Series Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks, April 7-10

After a very successful, albeit brief, opening series in Anaheim against the Angels, the Cubs are headed back to Arizona—quite near the site of their spring training complex, in fact—to face the Diamondbacks, a team that made quite an offseason splash of its own; namely, bolstering their pitching staff via trade (Shelby Miller) and free agency (Zack Greinke). Following their first 2-0 start since 1995, the Cubs are looking to build on their early-season success and head into their first homestand next week with a pair of series victories under their belt.

Probables

While John Lackey makes his Cubs debut in the first game, the offense will seek to continue its “selectively aggressive” approach at the plate (described here yesterday by Rian Watt) against Rubby De La Rosa, who I’m sure Kris Bryant is looking forward to facing again. De La Rosa is coming off of an up and down spring, so Game One should provide ample opportunity for the North Siders’ offense to be the showcase. He uses his low 90s fastball pretty heavily,  but will add in a changeup that can sit 8 MPH slower and a slider that comes in at about the same speed as his changeup.

In Game Two, the Cubs’ lineup configuration could look a bit different against lefthander Robbie Ray. In a National League park, Jorge Soler seems the best fit to get the start in left field, and with Jason Hammel on the mound for the Cubs, his personal catcher Kyle Schwarber will get his first start behind the plate in 2016. Ray had a very nice spring, but he has struggled with efficiency in the past, so Friday’s game stands to be a nice opportunity for the Cubs’ bats to force him out of the game early. Ray doesn’t have quite the velocity of De La Rosa, and he rarely throws a changeup, so he’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher.

On Saturday, changeup artist Kyle Hendricks makes his 2016 debut, and though the Diamondbacks starter has not been officially named as of this writing, it’s likely that the Cubs will face Greinke here, though it will be on four days rest after his start on Monday. He’s coming off of a rough Opening Day start against the Rockies when he gave up seven runs in just four innings – though it has since been reported that he was pitching with a case of the flu, but it’s Greinke, so this could be a bit of a mismatch pitching-wise.

And finally, the Sunday starter has not officially been named for the Diamondbacks, but Miller looks probable here. The Cubs are sending Jake Arrieta for his second start of the year, and if Miller pitches, he (like Greinke) is coming off of a very rough first start of the year. Miller gave up three home runs on Tuesday in his six-run, eight-hit outing. Miller mixes his 94 MPH fastball with a cutter pretty nicely, and in his first start this year he relied on the cutter a bit more heavily than he has in the past.

What to Watch For

Game One: The first two games are very favorable pitching matchups for the Cubs, and having the righty on the mound for Arizona means that Kyle Schwarber probably starts in left field. The offense has shown such variety already in who will provide the punch, and seeing them for four games in a hitter-friendly park is likely going to be fun.

I’ll also be curious to see how Matt Szczur is used in this series as a whole, but also whether he gets a defensive replacement/pinch hit appearance in this game like he did on Monday night. He’s seeing the ball well in the first two games, so I’d like to see them get him to the plate at some point in Game One.

Game Two: I honestly thought that Andrew Heaney would be a little tougher for the Cubs’ lineup than he proved to be, and Robbie Ray is not a pitcher of Heaney’s caliber. For the Cubs, meanwhile, Hammel’s first half WHIP of 0.945 last year gives me hope that he can start this season off on a strong note.

As I mentioned earlier, the left handed starter means that Soler is probably your left fielder on Friday night, so keep an eye on how he looks out there, particularly in his first moves to the ball when line drives and pop ups head his way. He’s a serviceable right fielder, but this will probably be our first real look at him in left. Along those lines, this is going to be Schwarber’s first night behind the plate, so watch for how he keeps his stance behind the plate a little lower, as he did during spring training by extending his right leg out a bit.

Game Three: Assuming that it’s Greinke on Saturday, I have little expectation that he’ll replicate his poor Monday performance. The Cubs are bound to be one of the toughest offenses any pitcher faces, but Greinke shut the Cubs out in six innings when he faced them last year on June 23. Jason Heyward is a career .143 hitter against Greinke, but Anthony Rizzo has managed .333 (small sample size alert—it’s in seven plate appearances). Ben Zobrist has probably seen the most of Greinke in his career with 24 plate appearances, and he has been moderately successful, putting up a .261/.292/.348 slash line.

Game Four: Shelby Miller was the cornerstone of a trade that sent Dansby Swanson to the Braves. Swanson, for his part, was the number 1 overall pick in 2015 and the 27th ranked prospect on the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 list. Don’t let Miller’s poor start on Tuesday fool you—he had 16 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings against the Cubs last year, so this might be a rough day for the Cubs’ offense at least in that respect.

Broadcast Information

Thursday’s game is at 8:40 pm CT on CSN+, Friday is at 8:40 pm CT on WGN, Saturday is at 7:10 pm CT on CSN, and Sunday is the first day game of the year for the Cubs, at 3:10 pm CT on WGN.

Lead photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas—USA Today Sports.