It was a disappointing weekend on the North Side, as the Cubs dropped two of three to the lowly Rockies, replete with a shutout Sunday and a lonely run scored on Friday. The good news: the starting pitching has been sterling. The Cardinals are on the docket this week, with as much tension and excitement as is possible for a weekday series in April. We’ve got the return of two key 2015 Cardinals to the belly of the Midwestern beast, we’ve got the top two teams in the division, and we’ve got the first face off between the old guard division champions and the upstart favorites. It’s Cubs versus Cardinals.
Probables
John Lackey will square off against his replacement in St. Louis’s rotation, Mike Leake, on Monday night, his first start against the Cardinals in his career. Lackey followed a rocky first start in Anaheim with a good outing against the Reds at Wrigley, striking out seven over 6 2/3 while allowing two runs. It’s early, but Lackey’s 39 percent groundball rate is a tick below his career mark of 46 percent, so Lackey might focus on pounding the ball down in the zone to get Cardinals hitters to smack the ball at the Cubs’ formidable infield defense. Leake has allowed eight runs in 10 1/3 innings so far against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. His sinker-cutter-slider pitch mix might give hitters like Jorge Soler trouble, but the Cubs’ left-handed sluggers should feast: lefties have hit Leake’s sinker and changeup with authority throughout his career.
Tuesday boasts two starters who fared very poorly in last year’s NLDS against these same lineups. Jason Hammel, who has pitched solidly in two starts—his seven walks in 12 innings is a bit concerning—got roughed up in three short innings last October, enough to make Joe Maddon yank Hammel’s very short leash. Similarly, Jaime Garcia surrendered five runs in two innings in game two of that series, all in an frustrating second inning culminating in a monster Soler homer. The Cubs will assuredly run out their righty-heavy lineup, with David Ross a likely start behind the plate. Javier Baez’s recent return will give Maddon some more options in terms of matchups and defensive alignments, and Tuesday is probably his best opportunity for a start in the series.
Kyle Hendricks and Carlos Martinez square off in the series finale. Martinez missed the postseason due to a shoulder injury, but he’s looked fairly good this season so far, and he’s the Cardinals starter on whom the most pressure probably rests with Adam Wainwright looking eminently vulnerable. Hendricks should take his dominant changeup for a walk against a Cards lineup featuring several lefty mashers (Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Matt Adams), and is a sleeper pick for best start of the series.
What to Look For
Dexter Fowler is punishing baseballs. Two homers, nine walks, and three doubles have rocketed the center fielder to the top of the major-league leaderboards in a number of offensive categories, including a league-leading .553 OBP, and he’s pacing the league in WARP with a 1.18 mark. He’ll slump soon, of course, but as long as he’s clicking, the Cubs lineup will be formidable.
Joe Maddon managed curiously at times in the Rockies series over the weekend, leaving Hendricks and Jake Arrieta in longer than necessary with a well-stocked bullpen at hand, and issuing intentional walks when the situation did not warrant them. His tactical skills will be tested against Mike Matheny, who has grown as a tactician as a result of last year’s major injuries to his roster. With the two teams poised to battle intensely, managerial decisions and demeanor will take on greater importance.
The Cubs are still perched at or near the top of a number of team offensive and pitching categories, with the second-best marks in MLB for both runs scored and runs allowed. The weekend stalled their steamrolling offense a bit, more frustrating than concerning, but offensive firepower will be of great importance considering the Cardinals’ own hitting prowess. The Cardinals’ team unsustainable .281 batting average (the team hit .253 last season) inflates their offensive numbers, so the Cubs’ pitching, with their strikeout tendencies, could deflate St. Louis’s offense. Their team .336 TAv outpaces the second-ranked club, Miami, by a massive 37 points.
Lackey and Jason Heyward will have their first taste of action against their 2015 team, a team that they (now infamously) led in pitcher and position player wins above replacement, respectively. The Cubs’ hitters are clipping along, and St. Louis’s are due for regression, so I would bet on Cubs’ pitchers stifling their opponents and enjoying fine run support. It’s sure to be a mid-spring baseball crucible at Busch Stadium this weekend, with temperatures inching toward 80 degrees on Monday, and tempers possibly flaring as last season’s divisional round lingers in players’ minds.
Lead photo courtesy Jeff Curry—USA Today Sports.