Game 18 Recap: Reds 13 Cubs 5

For all the fun the baseball world has had with the Cubs and their gaudy run differential in the early going (and I’ve had plenty myself), this game was a good reminder of something I hope everyone kept in mind from the get-go: run differentials are often deceiving. This game was a whole lot closer to going Chicago’s way than the final score suggests (just as a few Cubs wins this season were closer to being losses than they seemed).

Top Play: The Cubs trailed 2-1 in the top of the fifth, when Dexter Fowler grounded one past Joey Votto and down the first-base line. It was hard to tell, at first, whether Addison Russell would be able to score from first base, but the ball dribbled its way down to the shared post of a Reds ball boy and security officer, and although it didn’t get hung up there to the extent Jay Bruce initially expected, it was enough to slow Bruce’s retrieval of the ball enough to get Russell home. Bruce ill-advisedly threw home anyway, which only allowed Fowler to reach third, representing the go-ahead run with one out (+0.205 WPA). Fowler would score on a Kris Bryant single a batter later, making it 3-2 Cubs.

Bottom Play: The Cubs still led 3-2 in the top of the sixth, when John Lackey came to bat with runners on the corners and two outs. The situation had a Leverage Index of 1.99. In other words, it was about twice as important to the outcome of the game as a typical plate appearance. There is no way a pitcher should take a plate appearance that important that deep in a game. Joe Maddon was pushing his luck, frankly, when he allowed Lackey to bat with Russell on first and nobody out the previous inning (Leverage: 2.11), but there were mitigating factors there. Lackey had only faced 14 batters, and had been strong. With 15 more outs to get if the Cubs wanted to win and the bottom of the order due up for Cincinnati, it made some sense to let Lackey stay in at that stage. In the sixth, none of those factors counterbalanced the reduction in run expectancy the Cubs suffered because Maddon left Lackey in the game.

The fact that Lackey had thrown only 71 pitches in five innings of work, while impressive, I guess, is irrelevant. The Cubs have an eight-man bullpen they already use too little. They have as deep a bench as an eight-man bullpen permits, including (on Saturday night) Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella. Allowing Lackey to hit for himself is an indefensible choice, but it’s the one Maddon made. Lackey grounded out to Joey Votto on the second pitch, ending the inning.

That wasn’t the bottom play. The bottom play came when, after back-to-back singles by Tyler Holt and Zack Cozart to open the Reds’ half of the sixth, Eugenio Suarez hit a three-run home run that put the Reds in the lead for good (-0.239 WPA). Obviously, though, the mistake in the top of the frame set the stage for the disastrous bottom half. Making decisions based on starters’ pitch counts is dangerous, and usually deleterious, but the danger isn’t confined to making those decisions based on high pitch counts.

Key Moment: As I’m sure you surmised, the key moment of Saturday’s game was the sequence described above. For fun, though, let’s dig through another sequence, one that took place two innings earlier. It was the bottom of the fourth, and Zack Cozart led off with a double. That brought up Suarez, who cracked a sharp grounder toward the hole between shortstop and third base. Here’s where we need a more flowing, moment-to-moment number than WPA to capture a game’s real twists and turns. Russell dove to his right and snagged the ball, a marvelous play that could have stopped a budding Reds rally cold. He then popped to his feet and made a good (albeit bouncing) throw to first base. Anthony Rizzo botched the scoop, though, and as Suarez steamed past, the ball deflected off his leg and out of play. Instead of a runner on second with one out and the Cubs ahead 1-0, there were no outs, the game was tied, and Suarez had second.

Russell got an error on the play, which is preposterous. If an error had to be given, it ought to have gone to Rizzo, but there really didn’t need to be an error. The error is far more misinformative than informative, at this point. Kill the error. That was just one of those plays that happens sometimes in baseball. Russell is to be lauded for a sensational play.

That play began a chain of events during which that beyond-our-reach, superstatistical WPA swung wildly for a little bit. Lackey fell behind Votto 3-1 (Reds’ WPA: rising). Then, he threw a wicked changeup, and Votto (one of the game’s best and smartest hitters) was utterly fooled (3-2 count now, Cubs get some of that back). Votto grounded out on the next pitch, moving a runner to third with one away. That brought up Phillips, whom Lackey looked perfectly happy to put on first base. On a 3-0 pitch, he threw a breaking ball that was down and out of the zone, which ought to have accomplished his mission. The home plate umpire called it a strike, though, perhaps participating in the grand tradition of calling an overlarge strike zone on 3-0, or perhaps just fooled by the pitch. On 3-1, Phillips cracked a double into the gap in left-center field, pushing across the go-ahead run (Reds WPA shoots skyward). He wasn’t wrong to try for third base, either, with the weak-armed Fowler fielding the ball in fairly deep center. Phillips failed to account for the prowess of Russell as a relay man, though, and Russell (perfect footwork, lightning-quick exchange, bullseye of a throw, if perhaps not the strongest one ever) gave Baez (an exceptionally quick applier of tags) the millisecond he needed to tag Phillips out (washing out a huge share of what Phillips’ hit had added to the Reds’ WPA, turning it, in effect, into a sacrifice fly).

There’s a lot going on there. The later innings made it seem insignificant, but it wasn’t, and even if it had been, it would be worth mentioning.

Trend to Watch: I won’t beat a dead horse here. The obvious, relevant trend that shone through in this one is the ongoing incompatibility of the Cubs’ starting pitcher usage with both their preseason statements and their roster construction. That said, it won’t look like nearly as big a deal on most nights. It matters, but the Cubs have sufficient talent to make it matter fairly little, and anyway, they’ll probably find a healthier balance soon.

Also of note: Russell not only cracked a 420-foot homer, but drew three walks. He’s a much better hitter than his early numbers suggest, and his processes (approach, quality of contact, etc.) have been better than his outcomes. Saturday night was no fluke for him.

What’s Next: The Cubs will try to bounce back and finish a series win on Sunday, with Jason Hammel on the mound. Hammel didn’t pitch terribly well last time he saw the Reds, at Wrigley Field on April 14, but he still shut them out over six innings. Alfredo Simon (whom the Cubs wouldn’t allow to escape the first inning the last time around) starts for Cincinnati. Gametime is 12:10 central, and the game will air on WGN.

Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today sports.