Top Play (WPA): Sometimes, it’s the play you expect to see at the top that ends up there. Today was one of those days. Although he hasn’t exactly come out of the gate guns blazing, Ben Zobrist has been a steady presence in the Cubs’ lineup, and it was his three-run home run in the third inning (+0.297) that was the biggest blow in this game. It sealed a Chicago sweep of Pittsburgh and put the Cubs a full six (!) games ahead of the Pirates in the National League Central. That’s truly ludicrous, this early in the year. Without taking today’s results into account, BP’s Playoff Odds calculator gives the Cubs a 96.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is—by far—the highest mark in the majors. It can only go up with today’s win. You heard it here last: these Cubs are very, very good. And as they head into May, there’s no reason to expect them not to continue that way.
Bottom Play (WPA): Sometimes, of course, it’s not the play you expect. Matt Joyce’s two-run homer in the seventh inning was important (-0.047), sure, but it wasn’t nearly the worst moment of the contest for the Cubs. No, that moment came in the fourth inning, when Francisco Cervelli singled to left (-0.100) to load the bases with nobody out for the Pirates. Of course, that didn’t end up mattering, because ….
Key Moment: … for the second time in as many starts, Jon Lester worked his way out of a bases-loaded, no out jam. Today’s bravura performance came in the fourth inning of what was then a 4-0 game. Lester bookended a walk to Starling Marte with singles to David Freese and Cervelli, and quickly found himself in what would end up being the highest-leverage moment of the game. Then he got to work. It took him eight pitches to retire Sean Rodriguez on a strikeout, and three more to get a looping flyout to right from Josh Harrison, and so it fell to Gregory Polanco to come to the plate with two outs and make it worth it for the Pirates. Polanco, like Rodriguez, worked the count to the maximum, but—also like Rodriguez—ended up striking out swinging, this time on a foul tip. Lester needs moments like this. He’s a guy who thrives on big moments—on the knowledge that he’s been there before, and made good. As the season progresses onwards, watch for him to lock in even more than he has already—and for a guy with a 1.58 ERA already, that’s a scary proposition.
Trend to Watch: The Cubs’ depth has been tested early and often so far in 2016, with Miguel Montero, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Szczur, and Jason Heyward all out at the moment with injuries of various severity. While we’ve thus spent quite a bit of time thinking about depth’s consequences from an offensive perspective, this game gave us an opportunity to examine this team’s depth on defense as well. The alignment today was kind of unusual: Zobrist got a rare start in right field, with Kris Bryant in left and Dexter Fowler in center. Meanwhile, on the infield, Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Tommy La Stella, and Anthony Rizzo rounded out the defensive lineup. With the exception of Rizzo, each one of those players can play in at least one other position—some of them more than one—and Joe Maddon will have his hands full trying to keep everyone fresh, rested, and happy moving forward. It’s what this team was designed to do, if injuries struck, sure, but it is a challenge nonetheless. Keep a particular eye on Jorge Soler, who probably needs more playing time than he’s getting right now to really develop into the hitter the Cubs hope he becomes. He did not start today.
Coming Next: The Cubs will head deeper into a tricky month of May with a home series against the surging Washington Nationals, who are their closest competitors, at least by record, in the National League so far. They’ll play four at Wrigley over the weekend—all day games, save the opener—and the Cubs will look to put a little more distance between themselves and their sagging division rivals. Pitching matchups have not yet been announced for all four games, but look for Joe Ross (0.79 ERA on the young season) to face Kyle Hendricks (3.52) tomorrow evening, Max Scherzer (3.55) to face John Lackey (4.32) in a dandy on Friday afternoon, and some combination of Jason Hammel (1.24) and Jake Arrieta (0.84) in the final two games of the series for the Cubs. Dusty Baker’s Nationals starters for games three and four are still to be determined. Tomorrow’s game will appear locally on CSN, and first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 CT.
Lead photo courtesy Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports.
Rian, is there a way to update the RUNS PER GAME and Pythagorean Over/Under at the same time these are posted?
We can definitely look into it, yes!