The following things are always important to keep in mind when watching MLB baseball on Memorial Day:
- Whatever the announcers might say, Memorial Day does not mark a milestone at which numbers and the standings begin to mean something. Rany Jazayerli did once find that in-season performance starts to predict future performance at a team level at around the 48-game mark, but that was before we had well-developed projection systems like PECOTA, ZiPS, and Steamer. Memorial Day is just another day, except in that there are a bunch of day games and no one has to work. Let that be good enough.
- Don’t listen to the pedants who only want you to remember dead soldiers on Memorial Day and living ones on Veterans’ Day. There is absolutely nothing wrong with using both days to celebrate anyone who has faced the Hell of war for others’ sake.
- Feel free to note how tacky and stupid all the camo MLB attaches to its gear on Memorial Day looks. It’s okay to call out that corporation for tawdry, pandering nonsense like that, even as we celebrate and remember those who have served. In fact, it might be your duty as a citizen to do so.
Now, how about them Cubbies?
Top Play (WPA): As it has throughout May, the Cubs’ spark came from Ben Zobrist. The game remained scoreless as the bottom of the fifth inning began, and Zobrist, who had walked and struck out in two previous plate appearances against Alex Wood, was due to lead off. Wood had gotten ahead of Zobrist 0-2 in his first plate appearance, only to lose him after Zobrist patiently worked his way back into the count. This time, he got ahead 0-2, and stayed aggressive. Zobrist fouled off one 0-2 offering, then drove the next toward the right-field corner for a clean single, extending his hitting streak to 16 games.
Going to his left, Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig felt Zobrist might head for second on the bouncing liner. He tried to field the ball while squaring himself to fire the ball in, but in so doing, he muffed and missed it altogether. The ball bounced to the wall, and Zobrist raced around into third base (+0.132 WPA). Jason Heyward then dribbled a ball toward Adrian Gonzalez, who not only had no play at home, but failed to get Heyward at first, opening the door for the second Cubs run, driven home when Anthony Rizzo doubled into the right-field corner (no blame for Puig on the handling of that one; Heyward used speed and a good jump to score on a close play at home).
Bottom Play (WPA): The first Cubs threat of the day went for naught when the team loaded the bases in the second inning with one out, but saw Jason Hammel and Zobrist strike out to quelch the rally. That inning turned on a bad read off the bat immediately before Hammel’s plate appearance. Jorge Soler took three Alex Wood strikes to lead off the frame, part of an early pattern that found the Cubs having trouble with the deceptive left-handed delivery of the former Braves southpaw. Addison Russell started the would-be rally with a first-pitch, looping line-drive single into right field, and made second on a Javier Baez push bunt fielded by Gonzalez. David Ross then singled through the left side, a floating sort of liner that could have scored Russell, particularly given both the weak arm and the deep starting position of Dodgers’ left fielder Carl Crawford.
Alas, Russell didn’t immediately recognize that the ball would get through the infield, and had a very slow start toward third base. Even so, he had a fair chance to score, and given the fact that Hammel was due next, it would have been a pretty good risk if third-base coach Gary Jones had sent Russell toward home plate. He held him, though, knowing not only that Russell had gotten a false start, but that he doesn’t run especially well until he’s been underway for a while.
Predictably, Hammel struck out (-0.078 WPA). He fouled off an 0-2 pitch and took another tough one, but went down looking thereafter, and when Zobrist got fooled on consecutive pitches, the rally died. That taken strike three would be Hammel’s last official act in the game, as he was lifted with a cramp in his right hamstring prior to the top of the third.
Key Moment: In truth, the key moment in this one wasn’t one moment, but all the moments after that abortive warmup toss Hammel attempted before in the third inning. When he walked off alongside the trainer, Travis Wood jogged in to relieve him—and proved that he always feels most comfortable in camouflage. Wood fired four perfect innings, fanning four Dodgers and getting weak contact from several more. A lineup loaded with lefties found itself ill-prepared for the switch from right-handed, slider-heavy Hammel to the lefty Wood and his relentless diet of well-located fastballs. Behind Wood was Justin Grimm, and behind Grimm, Pedro Strop, and behind Strop, Hector Rondon. Each of them was razor-sharp, and no Dodgers batter had an answer for them. Cubs pitching allowed only one hit (!) on the day and retired the final 25 Dodgers hitters in order.
The only hit Hammel allowed came on a pop-up into shallow right-center field that fell between Heyward (playing center Monday), Zobrist (playing right), and Baez (at second). One can’t help but wonder whether, if that ball comes down amid players more accustomed to their various positions in the moment, it’s caught. One can’t help but wonder that because, after that pop-up single, Hammel issued his only walk of the game, to Gonzalez, and because after that, no Cubs pitcher allowed a Dodger to reach base. On the day, Cubs pitchers fanned 11, and the cheapness of the only hit and walk they surrendered feels, if only in hindsight, somewhat tragic.
Trend to Watch: Injuries might pose a more formidable threat to the Cubs’ preeminence in MLB than any team can, and they gently reminded this team of destiny that they still have the ability to spoil everyone’s fun. Dexter Fowler missed the game with a sore right heel. Joe Maddon said he expects Fowler to be in the lineup Tuesday, and even noted that his starting center fielder was available to pinch-hit, so there’s no evidence this is serious. Fowler missed a few days with a left ankle injury last June, but didn’t suffer any long-term effects. Still, that bears watching, particularly because Fowler has been so great so far this season.
Then there’s Hammel. Like Fowler, he suffered a similar injury at a similar point in the schedule last year. Unlike Fowler, Hammel wasn’t the same for the rest of 2015. He’s still being evaluated, but in his particular case, not even a clean bill of health and taking the mound again Saturday is likely to settle Cubs fans’ stomachs. Instead, he’ll have to pitch well for a while to demonstrate that he’s truly unaffected. (To be sure, Wood’s performance, plus the presence of Trevor Cahill and Adam Warren, make the specter of a damaged Hammel less intimidating than it might be otherwise.)
Rizzo merits mention here. The ball he drilled into the corner for an RBI double was the best one he’d struck in several games. Even as hits started to come for him, his funk has persisted, as he hasn’t yet started driving the ball again. Perhaps that fifth-inning shot augurs change there.
On the flip side, Heyward continues not to hit the ball well, and Baez continues to swing at everything. Even elite teams always have areas in which they can fairly hope for improvement. For the Cubs, Heyward and Baez provide solid defense, but aren’t doing what they’re capable of doing (truthfully, what they need to do, for the team to reach its full potential) at the plate. Sooner or later, that has to change, or Russell and Miguel Montero need to bat higher and more often, and Baez and Heyward need to bat lower and less often.
What’s Next: Jake Arrieta has been a remarkable pitcher over the last two years, and a downright dominant one over the last three-quarters of a season. There’s also been a huge team element to his success over that span, though, and that will be the story on Tuesday, as the team tries to win a 24th straight Arrieta start, which would be an MLB record. For his part, Arrieta looks to continue good work against very tough opponents, which has been the story throughout May. He faced the Angels, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds and Brewers in April, but in May, he’s faced the Pirates, Nationals, Pirates (again), Giants, and Cardinals, and now he faces the Dodgers. So far, he’s risen to meet the occasion, with 35 strikeouts, 11 walks, and just one home run allowed in 132 batters faced, after fanning 29, walking 10, and allowing two homers in 129 batters faced last month. Thanks to an opponent BABIP jump from .188 to .253, though, he’s seen his ERA more than double: 1.00 in April, 2.53 in May. That’s not just bad luck, of course. It’s better opposing hitters hitting the ball hard more often against him. Still, it’s impressive that Arrieta has met the challenge so well. Whether that’s sustainable over such a long stretch of starts is an open question. Lefty Scott Kazmir starts the 7:05 contest for the Dodgers. Watch on ABC 7 in Chicago, or on ESPN if you live outside the Chicago area.
Lead photo courtesy David Banks—USA Today Sports