MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

Series Preview: Cubs vs. Dodgers, May 30-June 2

Dear reader, this is where I say “I told you so.” The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Wrigley Field on Monday with a middling 26-24 record, good for second place in the NL West, but 4 1/2 games behind the Giants. Meanwhile, their starting pitching—behind Clayton Kershaw and the currently-injured Kenta Maeda—has been predictably suspect. Your questionably talented esteemed author anticipated a lackluster Dodgers season on his podcast during Spring Training, and their post-Zack Geinke performance has acquitted those who saw cracks in the multi-billion-dollar armor.

The Dodgers did sweep the Reds handily last week, and they quieted their 2015 Division Series rivals, the Mets, over the weekend, but the Cubs miss Kershaw this week, with an offense that is once again bludgeoning opposing pitching.

Probable Pitchers:

Monday: Jason Hammel vs. Alex Wood

As he has during the past two seasons in Cubs blue, Jason Hammel has dealt opposing hitters a difficult hand, posting a sterling 2.17 ERA in the first quarter of this season. The advanced metrics are more skeptical: his 4.21 DRA is the highest among Cubs starters, and his cFIP of 102 predicts regression toward league average. However, Hammel has made some pitch mix adjustments that might allow him to continue to succeed:

Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)

He’s throwing more curveballs than at any point in the past two-plus seasons, along with quite a few sliders and fewer four-seam fastballs. That mix has led to a ground ball rate of 47 percent, closer to the rates he generated in Colorado and Baltimore before he came to the Cubs. Perhaps as a result of more grounders, his home run rate is down, a key factor in success for Hammel.

The 25-year-old Wood has been the Dodgers’ third-best starter this year, and the best that the Cubs will face this series. He boasts a solid 3.38 ERA and 3.86 DRA, with an impressive 25.2 percent strikeout rate that could keep the Cubs’ sluggers at bay. Strikeout pitchers don’t necessarily fare well against the Cubs’ impeccably patient lineup, though: chances are, Cubs hitters will wait out Wood and make him throw more pitches than he wants to throw, getting to the Dodgers’ ‘pen early.

Tuesday: Jake Arrieta vs. Scott Kazmir

His 1.72 ERA belies a slightly worse performance for Arrieta this season than in last season’s Cy Young campaign, and he’s coming off his worst performance of the year last week in St. Louis. It was actually his third start out of ten in which he failed to throw more than five innings, and his four strikeouts were a season-low.

Which is to say, Jake Arrieta will pitch very well on Tuesday.

Kazmir signed a lucrative three-year, $48 million contract with L.A. this offseason, and he’s done his best to make the Dodgers’ front office look silly thereafter, by pitching to a 4.84 ERA. He’s walking more hitters than he has since an atrocious 2010 in Anaheim, when it looked like his career was dead, and his home run rate is the highest in his career. Notable is Kazmir’s poor performance against lefties—Anthony Rizzo might have an opportunity to break out of his mini-slump.

Wednesday: Jon Lester vs. Mike Bolsinger

Lester has been his usual dominant self this season, in step with last year’s strong debut season in Chicago (ably chronicled by BP Wrigleyville’s Andrew Felper all year). There’s not much to say about the left-hander, other than that he is executing his game plan very well.

In only two starts for the Dodgers this season, Bolsinger has been the just-above-replacement-level pitcher that PECOTA thinks he is. Last outing against the Reds, he lasted 5 2/3 innings and struck out six, getting a victory while allowing only two runs and three hits. His cutter is his bread and butter, and in his two starts this year he’s thrown his cutter, curveball, and slider all about one-third of the time, a funky mix that probably won’t keep the Cubs’ mature hitting approaches off balance.

Thursday: Kyle Hendricks vs. TBD

Saturday, Hendricks was *this close* to a complete game shutout, surrendering a measly run in the ninth after Jason Heyward lost a Freddy Galvis popup in the sun and Galvis scored on a dropped-third strike. Regardless, the young right-hander pitched impressively: his changeup was magical, and he’s upped his four-seam usage to nearly match that of his change, to great effect. Watch some pretty highlights:

The Dodgers haven’t announced their starter yet.

What to Watch For: With the Cubs slated to face three lefties this series, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, and Matt Szczur will probably earn starts over Tommy La Stella. Soler, in particular, has an opportunity to continue a good week: since May 18 (the beginning of the Cubs’ last road trip), the outfielder has hit .321/.441/.714, and he flashed good signs against the left-handed Adam Morgan on Friday, cranking a long homer off the scoreboard. Soler could earn more playing time if he maintains the solid approach he’s currently showing against breaking and off-speed pitches, the bane of his significant potential.

Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, and Dexter Fowler have continued their All-Star-worthy seasons of late, and Miguel Montero had his best game offensively on Sunday since he returned from the disabled list. The Cubs lineup is always formidable; right now, they’re clicking again.

The Dodgers, despite their average record, still rank fifth in the majors in third-order winning percentage. Reanimated Chase Utley has spearheaded their offensive attack with an .839 OPS—or, 200 points better than last season—and with a league-leading 2.5 Dirty Slides Above Average. Howie Kendrick has started in the outfield a frighteningly large number of times for a team bent on contending, and Yasmani Grandal has been oft hurt this season. Joc Pederson has rebounded from a crater of a second-half of 2015, and Yasiel Puig is showing that’s he more like the player he has been the past two seasons than the one who tore up the NL in his rookie campaign of 2013.

All said, it’s a bit of a Frankenstein lineup, and, if the club combines underperformance, an exorbitant payroll, and the inability of many Angelenos to watch the team on Time-Warner Cable, torches and pitchforks might follow. One bright spot has been the ascendance of rookie Trayce Thompson, who has hit a robust .274/.336/.528 in 116 plate appearances. He could be preoccupied Monday—his brother, Klay, faces a Game Seven against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Western Conference Finals, after his Golden State Warriors staved off elimination on Saturday night—but he’s poised to follow up a solid 2015 rookie season on Chicago’s South Side with a good sophomore year. If you’re going to pick a Dodger to hone in on, Thompson is a fun choice. He and another young Dodger with a famous brother, Corey Seager, give some hope to the fans who used to call themselves the Bums.

Broadcast Information: Monday’s game is an odd 4:05 Central start, on WGN for those of you with fancy televisions and 670 The Score for those of you who still like to gather ’round the family radio in the living room (The Score will carry all four games of the series). No word as to whether President Roosevelt will speak Monday evening after the game.

Tuesday and Wednesday are more traditional 7:05 games under the Wrigley light standards. ESPN is showing both games nationally, outside of the Chicago market, and ABC7 has it in town on Tuesday. Comcast SportsNet (CSN) picks up Wednesday’s local TV coverage. Thursday’s series finale is the series’ only 1:20 start—surely an affront to all that is Good in this world—also on CSN.

Lead photo courtesy Anthony Gruppuso—USA Today Sports.

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1 comment on “Series Preview: Cubs vs. Dodgers, May 30-June 2”

Joel Reese

I’m really disappointed in this article and its cherrypicked stats. Yes, Chase Utley is leading the league with a 2.5 Dirty Slides Above Average. But you’re overlooking his 3.7 ACLs shredded/9 rate, which is a historic percentage and could shatter Matt Holliday’s previous record of 2.8. Not sure why you and the rest of The Corporate Media are ignoring this historic run. SMH.

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