Top Play (WPA): Bachelorette frontrunner Reigning Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant is five home runs away from his 2015 total of 26, following an impressive three-dinger night in Cincinnati. His first—a solo shot in the third—put the Cubs up 3-2 (+.119). His second, however, was the game’s lynchpin: with Jake Arrieta and Jason Heyward on base, Bryant turned on a slider that backed up into the middle of the zone, planting it in the second section of the second deck in left field (+.247). It was the second of three 400-foot homers of the night for Bryant.
Bryant sported a .329 TAv before the game, and his three home runs and two doubles will raise that higher into elite territory. It was Bryant’s first multi-hit game since June 11th. If the offense is to rouse the club from its current skid, Bryant’s power stroke must be at the heart of it.
Bottom Play (WPA): Arrieta is looking as human as we’ve seen in about two seasons now, with a middling outing saved by Kris Bryant’s bat. His command was off again on Monday night, frequently falling behind hitters and walking five. Two of those walks directly led to Arrieta coughing up the lead in the first; speedster Billy Hamilton and on-base machine Joey Votto drew free passes off of the thickly bearded right-hander, and with two outs, breakout Reds left fielder Adam Duvall toed the batters box. The Aaron Paul-lookalike hooked a 1-0 curveball off the base of the left-field wall for a double, scoring both Hamilton and Votto (-.175).
It’s not imperative for Arrieta to find his best stuff immediately, thankfully, as the Cubs have a lineup capable of making up for merely average starts from their ace, but it would be helpful for the Cy Young-winner to have fewer high-stress outings. Last season, Arrieta’s frequently stress-riddled starts contributed to a lackluster October. However, Arrieta staying fresh is a key for the team down the stretch, and keeping his pitch counts and stressful innings to a minimum will aid in that regard.
Key Moment: Why don’t we fawn over Bryant some more, huh?
The game was uncomfortable close through seven innings, with Arrieta’s lackluster performance succeeded by shaky relief outings from Trevor Cahill and Travis Wood. With a too-close 8-6 lead in the eighth, Bryant sauntered to the plate against old-school righty Ross Ohlendorf. The first pitch, he skied an Ohlendorf offering just to the right of the right-field foul pole, nearly missing his third home run of the evening. But Ohlendorf was not deterred; he came right back in the zone to Bryant, and the young slugger made him pay. Somehow outdoing his 444-foot second home run, Bryant launched the ball into the second deck of the left-center field bleachers, a no-doubter that received not even a glance from the Reds’ outfielders.
http://m.cubs.mlb.com/chc/video/v864995483/chccin-bryant-crushes-his-second-homer-of-the-game
Some historical context: no one has ever slugged three home runs and two doubles in the same game, ever (or, since 1913, when such records began being kept). Bryant’s 16 total bases set a Cubs record as well, and he’s now on pace for 45 home runs on the year. He also paces the National League in home runs, tying Duvall and Nolan Arenado with 21. His three home runs, five hits, six RBI, and four runs all tied or set career highs. Bryant should receive strong MVP consideration if he continues to play as he has this season.
Trend to Watch: Willson Contreras is still tearing up opposing pitching. He’s hit safely in eight of ten games since receiving the call-up from Triple-A Iowa, notching two singles back through the box into center field off of Dan Straily. Joe Maddon is going to insert Contreras into the lineup as long as he’s hitting, and the Cubs face two lefty starters in the next two games, so the catcher/third baseman/first baseman/outfielder should get two more starts.
The prodigal outfielder, Chris Coghlan, has appeared to be seeing the ball well in his 41 plate appearances since his return. He’s doing well not to swing at pitches out of the zone, but he’s not driving those in his wheelhouse, either. With Dexter Fowler out, Coghlan’s approach and results are under more scrutiny than they normally would be, and his performance, combined with that of Contreras, is necessary to bridge the gap until Fowler or Jorge Soler return.
Coming Next: The Cubs follow the Bryant Game on Tuesday with Jon Lester on the mound (3.76 DRA, 91 cFIP, 1.81 ERA). He faces living van Gogh self-portrait John Lamb (5.23, 115, 4.78), a 25-year-old lefty. With a southpaw on the mound, Javier Baez will likely start at third base, with Bryant moving to the outfield to replace the lefty Coghlan. Game time is 6:10 Central, on Comcast SportsNet.
Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports