Some days, baseball takes it easy. Yesterday was not one of those days—but if you read the recap we published here, or watched the game, you know that already. Tonight was, though. The Cubs charged out to an early lead, scoring two in the first off of Marlins sacrificial lamb starting pitcher Adam Conley, and never really looked back. They North Siders have won 11 of their last 18 games, now, dating back to the All-Star break, and although Jason Heyward still isn’t really hitting, and the bullpen is still more tired and perhaps less solid, overall, than we’d like it to be, the Chicago Cubs are finally starting to look something like the team that charged out of the 2016 game 25-6. If they get anywhere close, watch out.
Top Play (WPA): You know the path an airplane takes when it takes off? A slow, steady ascent to a level 30,000 feet? That’s what this game’s WPA chart looks like. The Cubs started out favored to win—if only by a little bit, because baseball is not a game much given to letting the better team win any particular game—and became steadily more favored as the night wore on. By the end, as it turns out, they had won. But the end began at the beginning, when Addison Russell came to the plate in the first inning, men trailing in the dust around second and third, and smoked a fifth-pitch fastball from the hapless Conley into short right (+0.167), scoring two and putting the Cubs immediately into the driver’s seat (for good, as it turned out). The Cubs didn’t have a particularly thrilling night with runners in scoring position—they were just 2-for-10 in the category, when all was said and done—but they had enough runners clogging up the bases, and the Marlins few enough, that it didn’t really matter. The better team won, and it didn’t end up being particularly close.
Bottom Play (WPA): One moment where the Cubs didn’t hit with runners in scoring position was right before they did, when Javy Baez fouled out to first (-0.077) in the first inning with the same two runners (Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo) in scoring position. That’s all I’ll say about this, for I refuse to be a slave to this stupid recap format. Which editor came up with this, anyway?
Key Moment: It isn’t a moment so much as a collection of them. They came, with increasing significance through the night, darting from the right hand of Dartmouth legend Kyle Hendricks. He threw a tremendous game tonight, allowing no runs in the process of giving the bullpen a much-needed, well-appreciated, and complete rest. Hendricks, for his part, is getting to the point where you sort of expect this of him. My appreciation for the man has long been documented—just click on his tag below to get a sense of the many, many words I’ve written about him in the last 14 months—but events appear to be conspiring to create a moment where the league realizes that Hendricks is not just one of the best pitchers on the Cubs roster (and yes, I mean the roster which includes Jake Arrieta) but one of the better pitchers in the game. He’s that good. And yeah, he still hasn’t worked out how to go much beyond the sixth inning on a regular basis—tonight’s results excluded, obviously—but he also hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last four starts, dating back to the early part of July. He’s working with all his pitches these days, and throwing them for strikes, and he’s pitching with the confidence of a man who knows that he’s got it going on. If he can keep this up, he’ll be in line for a playoff start or two come October.
Trend to Watch: Well, the starting pitching. You should watch that, if you haven’t been watching it all year. It’s tremendous, and shows real signs of continuing to be so as the months wear on and the nights get colder. But the other trend you should watch is the one that didn’t show up in this game, and therefore slipped mostly under the radar: the bullpen. If the 2016 Cubs have an Achilles heel—and, I suppose, every team does, so it’s no slight to mention it—it’s the bullpen. That’s why they went out and got Mike Montgomery just before the deadline. And Aroldis Chapman. And Joe Smith. And … and … and. You get the point. The front office knew they had a weakness, and they went out and addressed it. So, hey. Watch how the newly-constructed ‘pen performs. Keep an eye on it. See if it’s doing ok. Get a sense of when Maddon goes to Travis Wood, and when he starts his late-inning reliever parade early, with Smith in the sixth, Strop in the seventh, Rondon in the eighth, and Chapman in the ninth. See if those men get tired. See if they get worn out. See. Watch. Pay attention. If they lose a game or two on the Cardinals, it’ll be because the bullpen couldn’t deliver. If they cruise through October, it’ll be in large part because they could. It’ll matter.
Coming Next: The Cubs will play the Marlins, at Wrigley. The game will start at 7:05 pm ct, and will feature Jason Hammel starting for the Cubs, and Jose Fernandez starting for the Marlins. That last guy—Fernandez—is very good. Very good.You can catch all the action on CSN+, if you’re a television sort of human, and on radio at 670 The Score.
Lead photo courtesy Patrick Gorski—USA Today Sports.
Given the complete game by Hendricks I’d like to see an update on Contreras’ pitch framing and how he’s doing behind the plate generally. I would expect that with a pitcher like Hendricks, who relies on pitch selection and location, that if his catcher has any deficiencies they’d be easier to spot. Contreras looked good to my eye but I am far from being an expert evaluating catchers.