This piece, written by BP Wrigleyville’s Editor-in-Chief Rian Watt, forms part of our in-house coverage of the Cubs in the playoffs, “Second City October.” Additional Game One coverage can be found here.
The 2016 Chicago Cubs posted a Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE) score of 6.38, which is both tremendously good, when considered in absolute terms—it means the team converted balls in play into outs 6.38 percent more often than the average big-league team—and utterly, knock-your-socks-off amazing, when considered relative to the rest of the league. The next-best team in baseball this year (the Nationals) scored just 1.70 on the same metric, putting them 73 percent behind the Cubs—and that’s the guys in second place. In fact, since 1950, which is the first year for which we have PADE figures, no team but this year’s edition of the Chicago Cubs has put up a better mark than 5.54, which is the figure the 116-win Seattle Mariners achieved in 2001.
Point is, these Cubs can pick it.
And they showed it tonight. Dexter Fowler made two tremendous catches in center field early in on the game, first moving to his left (in the third, robbing Justin Turner), and then to his right, an inning later, to snare a sinking liner from Carlos Ruiz, arms outstretched, and end the frame. The second catch, in particular, took advantage of Fowler’s improved positioning in center: he’s playing, on average, 20 feet back of where he typically stood even last year. It’s made a difference for him, and for the Cubs, as their starting staff’s league-leading ERA has been aided in no small part by the men in the field.
All over Wrigley tonight, you saw the Cubs taking advantage of a killer combination: their players’ tremendous baseball instincts and talents, matched with and supported by thoughtful preparation by the entire organization. To wit: Lester refused to be rattled when, early in the game, the Dodgers’ hitters (smartly) did their very best to disrupt his timing and almost dared him to throw over to first. Ignoring that kind of goading is something the Cubs have worked with Lester on a lot this year. Another example: Javy Báez, in the second inning, ran the bases with joy and abandon in a magical sequence that was driven almost as much by his own exceptional talent as it was by Joe Maddon’s dispensation, given freely to his men all year, to abandon all fear of making physical mistakes.
Tonight’s win was the first for the Cubs in the NLCS since Game Four of 2003’s edition, 13 years and four days ago tonight. That Cubs team—brilliant at times, surprising, and frustrating to the very end—bears little relation to this year’s ballclub. That team happened to win, and so when they did it was an unexpected joy. For this team, winning is bound to happen; it’s the natural byproduct of an approach to the game, in all its phases, that doesn’t quit. That doesn’t mean this squad is invincible, mind you—baseball is way too unpredictable for that, and the Cubs could easily lose this series—but they’re good enough, in enough ways, that you almost stop worrying about the outcome when the Cubs are down late, or up early. Almost.
The Dodgers, for their part, weren’t especially bad tonight (save an inexplicable send of Adrián González in the second inning), but their weakness to left-handed pitching got exposed badly—Corey Seager, in particular, looked completely overmatched, both against Jon Lester and, later, Aroldis Chapman—and the Cubs were able to parlay their expanded bullpen into a nearly batter-by-batter approach to the final three innings. There are some who’ll fault Maddon for over-managing this one (he removed Lester, who’d been dealing, with two outs in the sixth and a chance to score a fourth run in a 3-1 game), but I’m not one of them. Lester was excellent, in the aggregate. But there’s not much point in carrying that many relief pitchers if you’re not going to use them, and Lester’s first two times through the order included a lot of deep counts. You never want to give hitters a third look at a starter when they got good looks the first two times, and Joe wisely went to the ‘pen when he had a chance to extend the lead.
The pinch-hit appearance for Soler, batting for Lester, didn’t work out, but the next half-inning did, as Travis Wood, Carl Edwards, Jr., and Mike Montgomery retired a batter each to take the game safely into the eighth. The Cubs ran into some trouble in the top of the eighth, as the first three batters reached (one on a poor defensive decision by Kris Bryant, who tried to go to the bag on a slow-hopper down the line, but missed his man and allowed all runners to reach), bringing Chapman into the game an inning ahead of schedule. He quickly struck out two—Seager and Yasiel Puig—before surrendering a single up the middle to González, scoring two and tying the game. That’ll happen if you don’t throw a single non-fastball, even if you sit at 102. And González is a good fastball hitter.
And then, the eighth.
It all could have turned out so differently. Miguel Montero could have struck out. Chris Coghlan could have been the guy who batted with the game on the line. Báez could have jacked one out, continuing his run of postseason heroics, instead of popping out to right. But none of that happened, because Dave Roberts got too cute by half, and managed his way right into a 1-0 NLCS deficit.
Here’s how it went down, in case you missed it. Ben Zobrist led off the frame with a double off of Joe Blanton, who’d come into the game for L.A. that inning. Addison Russell followed Zobrist with a groundout to third which, more on that some other time, because he’s really been struggling lately. That’s when things got weird. Roberts had Jason Heyward walked intentionally to get to Báez. Yes, that Báez. The one who’s been digging into his pocket for some lint and finding a hundo these days. Dave Roberts decided that he was the guy he wanted to face with the game on the line. Sure, there’s an increased chance of a double play, but it’s still playing with fire.
Things is, it worked. At least for a brief moment. Báez took the first pitch of the sequence into right, as it turned out, but high in the air—high enough for the Dodgers’ Kiké Hernandez to retire him easily for the second out. And then Roberts doubled down on a questionable strategy, walking Chris Coghlan intentionally to load the bases for Miguel Montero, who admitted after the game that he’d expected to be lifted for Willson Contreras in a bait-and-switch. Montero ran the count to 0-2 quickly before, well, you know.
Dexter Fowler followed Montero’s slam with a homer of his own, and the Cubs took a five-run lead into the ninth. There was still a little bit of drama to be had there, as Hector Rondon worked to nail down the game, but things eventually resolved themselves, and the Cubs will head into tomorrow night’s matchup needing just three wins in six tries to punch their ticket to the World Series. An NLCS win is no guarantee—it never is, even for a club as good as this—but today’s game showed off just about every thing this Cubs team does well, and some things they do transcendently; as was perhaps fitting, the game ended on a defensive gem. We’ll see you back at Wrigley tomorrow night.
Lead photo courtesy Jerry Lai—USA Today Sports.