This season has been defined by waiting. The regular season was completely devoid of drama. That made the past five months a wait for the postseason to begin, but for many there was also the wait for the other shoe to drop. Fans that have seen anything positive by this franchise be met with triple the amount of pain figured there must be something bad coming for this team.
Now the Cubs are facing that proverbial shoe after being stymied by some incredible pitchers. The series shifts to Los Angeles, and while there is certainly no panic in the visiting clubhouse following the Cubs being shutout by Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen, if the Cubs want to see Wrigley Field again this season it means having to win at least one in Los Angeles.
The split at Wrigley means it is now a five game series, and a familiar face is standing in the Cubs way to start this brand new series. Rich Hill came up from at the tail end of the Hendry pitching prospect bonanza of the early 2000s. Hill was exciting for his wicked curveball and the tremendous strike out potential, but his control was erratic to say the least. He came up in 2005 and performed as expected given his minor league career. His command took a huge step forward in 2007, and looked like he might be about to reach that tremendous potential. Then injuries and a step back in command made it all disappear. He bounced between the majors and minors for years before winding up in independent ball, but now at age 36 he has pitched at that level we thought he was reaching almost a decade ago.
The Cubs hope to continue Hill’s postseason trend tonight. He has struggled to pitch deep in any of his postseason starts, and the Dodgers have major problems when anyone not named Clayton Kershaw or Kenley Jansen is throwing the ball. Jake Arrieta and the Cubs defense will look to make it tough on the Dodgers offense, and hopefully the Cubs offense can do enough to retake the series lead.
The Pitching Matchup: Jake Arrieta vs Rich Hill
| Player | IP | BB | K | HR/9 | GB% | OPP TAv | WHIP | cFIP | DRA | WARP |
| Jake Arrieta | 197.3 | 76 | 190 | 0.7 | 54% | .221 | 1.08 | 94 | 4.02 | 3.0 |
| Rich Hill | 110.3 | 33 | 129 | 0.3 | 47% | .199 | 1.00 | 75 | 2.58 | 3.5 |
Jake Arrieta has had an up and down season. His DRA is inflated compared to his ERA, like most Cubs starting pitchers. This is a reflection of the Cubs historic defensive performance, but Arrieta has also struggled with his command more than you would like. That is one of the main reasons Arrieta has started Game 3 in both series. His opponent in this series is not in the same echelon as Madison Bumgarner, but Arrieta will need to pitch a solid game nonetheless.
Arrieta has changed his profile dramatically this season with a huge spike in sinker usage at the expense of his slider. His velocity was trending down at the end of the season, but his velocity jumped back up in the playoffs after his extended time off. He also reverted back to his previous slider usage. It is interesting that Arrieta has gone back to the heavy slider approach in the postseason. It could be being with the postseason that Arrieta is more willing to use the high stress slider or it could have been a one game aberration that he felt like he had more feel for that pitch.
Rich Hill has had a tremendous statistical season for the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers, but he has struggled since September 15. He has not had a single outing lasting more than 5 1/3 innings. His postseason outings have been even briefer. He started in the Cubs sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hill has made two playoff starts for the Dodgers, and yet for his career he has only thrown 10 playoff innings.
Hill is basically a two pitch pitcher. He has a four seam fastball and a curveball. His four seam fastball still sits over 90 mph, but the velocity has dipped in the final couple of months. He throws his fastball and curve at nearly 50 percent. He tends to throw the curve more to the left handed batters and four seam more to right handed batters. He does have a change, slider and sinker, but those pitches are rarely thrown. He tends to only mix in one of those additional pitches in an outing.
What to Watch For
Joe Maddon is looking at shaking up his lineup. Miguel Montero is likely to get the start since Arrieta is on the mound, but Jason Heyward might sit against the left handed Hill. Jorge Soler might get some playing time here as the Dodgers are throwing left handers in at least the next two games. There is the possibility that it will be three lefties if Kershaw does start on short rest in Game 5. Willson Contreras will probably get the start tomorrow night behind the plate, but it will be interesting to see if Maddon shakes up the struggling middle of the order. Soler or Contreras in the outfield would be a interesting addition despite the obvious drop in defense.
The list of Cubs hitters struggling at the plate is lengthy, but Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist are among the most notable Cubs struggling to hit. Rizzo has not had a good postseason. Last night he has started to hit the ball harder than what we have seen ever in this series. Rizzo is capable of breaking out tonight despite facing a southpaw and that would be a great sign for the Cubs chances.
Also Javier Baez because he is likely to do Javier Baez things.
Lead photo courtesy Gary A.Vasquez—USA Today Sports.
I think it would be a mistake to underestimate Hill’s ability to shut down the Cubs offense. He’s just the type to give them fits. That said, the real question is how long will he last? 4 innings? 5? They should have a 2 or 3 inning window between Hill and Jansen to do some serious damage. Let’s hope they get it done.