Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and World Series Game 2 Preview

This preview, written by Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Gianella, forms part of the main site’s comprehensive coverage of the postseason, “Playoff Prospectus”.

Cleveland took Game 1, shutting out Chicago behind Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, and Cody Allen. Now the Cubs try to even it up tonight at Progressive Field in Game 2.

Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta) at Cleveland (Trevor Bauer) 7:00 PM ET

PECOTA odds of winning: 62% Cubs, 38% Cleveland

Projected Starting Lineups

Cubs vs. Bauer (R) Cleveland vs. Arrieta (R)
Dexter Fowler (S), CF Carlos Santana (S), DH
Kris Bryant (R), 3B Jason Kipnis (L), 2B
Anthony Rizzo (L), 1B Francisco Lindor (S), SS
Ben Zobrist (S), LF Mike Napoli (R), 1B
Kyle Schwarber (L), DH Jose Ramirez (S), 3B
Javier Baez (R), 2B Lonnie Chisenhall (L), RF
Addison Russell (R), SS Coco Crisp (S), LF
Jason Heyward (L), RF Tyler Naquin (L), CF
Miguel Montero (L), C Roberto Perez (R), C


After facing left-hander Jon Lester in Game 1, Cleveland will switch up their alignment in Game 2 against right-hander Jake Arrieta. Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer will take a seat in favor of Coco Crisp and Tyler Naquin. Carlos Santanamoves to the top of the lineup after batting fifth versus Lester.

With the Cubs facing another righty, their lineup should more or less look the same against Bauer in Game 2. Montero is Arrieta’s preferred catcher, so David Ross takes a seat. Jason Heyward is penciled in instead of Chris Coghlan, but it is anyone’s guess who plays in the Cubs final outfield slot tonight. It could be Willson Contreras.

The Cubs didn’t push anyone in their bullpen in Game 1, with the exception of Justin Grimm, so the back end of their pen should be fresh. Andrew Miller threw 46 pitches in Game 1, so while he could pitch tonight it’s unlikely that he goes deep for a second consecutive outing.

To read the rest of this piece, please head on over to the main site.

Lead photo courtesy David Richard—USA Today Sports.

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