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Rule 5 Draft Preview: Who will the Cubs protect?

With the off-season in full swing, one of the first deadlines is coming up next Friday, November the 18th. That deadline is the last day that MLB teams can protect rule 5 draft eligible players by adding them to the 40-man roster. The Cubs 40-man currently stands at 34, so they have quite a bit of room to add their own guys or claim players from other teams. I want to highlight here the names of players who are close calls and predict whether or not the Cubs will add these guys in advance of next Friday’s deadline. For an exhaustive list of rule 5 draft eligible players, Arizona Phil over at The Cub Reporter does a great job of coverage.

John Andreoli, OF
2016 Team: Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Andreoli is a versatile outfielder who has spent the last two seasons in Iowa and had quite a bit of success. In 2015 he had a .287 tAV and followed that up with a .300 tAV in 2016. The power and walks both ticked up, but so did the strikeouts. Andreoli is an excellent baserunner who has stolen 76 bases over the past two years and is an okay defender who can play all three outfield spots. He is fairly similar to Matt Szczur but is a much better baserunner and a better base stealing threat.

Prediction: Added to 40-man

Corey Black, RHP
2016 Team: Iowa Cubs (AAA), Tennessee Smokies (AA)
Corey Black is a diminutive (5’11”), flame throwing right-handed reliever who came over from the Yankees in return for Alfonso Soriano. While there is no questioning Black’s stuff, the walks remained an issue in 2016. Black walked six batters per nine in Tennessee and then walked 6.2 batters per nine after making the jump to Triple-A Iowa. Even with his quality strikeout numbers (9.9 per nine in Double-A and 11 per nine in Triple-A), the Cubs have a plethora of quality right-handed relief options already on the 40-man roster that make it a tough decision on Black.

Prediction: Left off 40-man

Victor Caratini, C
2016 Team: Tennessee Smokies (AA)
Probably the best catcher in the entire minor leagues for the Cubs, Caratini had a solid 2016 at the plate at Double-A. While he lacks power, he has a great approach at the plate and doesn’t strike out very often. He might not be a great defensive catcher (FRAA had him a -10.2 last year), but Caratini has also played a little bit of third base and first base in the minor leagues as well. Even if he has to move away from the catcher position, the bat should keep Caratini as a valuable utility type player.

Prediction: Added to 40-man

Jacob Hannemann, OF
2016 Team: Tennessee Smokies (AA)
Hannemann spent his second consecutive season at the Double-A level in 2016. He was much better with the bat in his second stint, upping his tAV from .245 to .270 and seeing a huge uptick in ISO from .129 in 2015 to .179 in 2016. Hannemann is a solid defensive outfielder who can play all three spots, but he is a bit old for the level due to the fact that he went on a Mormon mission after college before playing pro baseball. If the power holds, he could be a valuable major league player—likely as a bench outfielder filling in across the outfield and helping out on the base paths.

Prediction: Left off 40-man

Jack Leathersich, LHP
2016 Team: Arizona Cubs (Rookie), Tennessee Smokies (AA), Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Leathersich is a high strikeout left-hander the Cubs added last off-season despite the fact that he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was removed from the 40-man midseason, but he remained in the Cubs organization. By the end of the year, he had reached Tennessee and eventually Iowa. The gaudy strikeout numbers remained (10.5 per nine in AA and 10.8 per nine in AAA) and the walks were generally cut down outside of his five inning stint in Iowa. The deceptive left-hander could be a very useful piece in the pen of a Cubs team that is currently lacking quality left-handed options.

Prediction: Added to 40-man

Ryan McNeil, RHP
2016 Team: Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+)
Drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft, McNeil had Tommy John surgery early in his Cubs career. He has progressed a level per year and 2016 was by far his best in the organization. He had a 93.6 DRA- and struck out 10.2 batters per nine against 3.5 walks per nine. McNeil has pitched this fall in the Arizona Fall League and hasn’t had much success, but he is facing many hitters who are more advanced than what he’s used to. Ideally, the Cubs would get a year of seeing McNeil face higher level hitters before having to add him to the 40-man.

Prediction: Left off 40-man

Jose Paulino, LHP
2016 Team: Eugene Emeralds (A-), South Bend Cubs (A)
Paulino is probably the most interesting name on this list. The late blooming left-hander broke out in a huge way in 2016 at the lower levels. After posting a 79.6 DRA- and striking out 9.5 batter per nine compared to only .8 walks per nine in Eugene, he was bumped up to South Bend midseason. He wasn’t as good upon his promotion to South Bend, but still experienced some success, posting a 3.15 ERA in his 40 innings at that level. He’s probably a bit young to be taken in the rule 5, but it’s a tough decision on whether or not you want to risk losing a really good pitching prospect.

Prediction: Left off 40-man

Bijan Rademacher, OF
2016 Team: Tennessee Smokies (AA), Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Rademacher profiles really well as an extra outfielder because he is a decent defender in the corners and can really swing it from the left side of the plate. He improved upon his .287 tAV in 2015 by coming out strong with a .323 tAV in 2016 at Tennessee before he was promoted to Iowa and continued to hit. At that level, he posted a .310 tAV in 81 plate appearances. Rademacher could definitely get taken, but given the outfield depth the Cubs possess, I’m not sure he’s a guy they need to protect.

Prediction: Left off 40-man

Armando Rivero, RHP
2016 Team: Iowa Cubs (AAA)
Rivero is a huge stuff reliever who has continued to improve while at Iowa. In 2015, he struck out only 8.4 batters per nine while walking 5.1 batters per nine and posted a 116.4 DRA-. In 2016, he came out really strong. The walks remained similar at 4.7 batters per nine, but the strikeouts ticked way up, all the way to 14.0 batters per nine. This led to a 2.13 ERA and a 72.4 DRA-. Still, inexplicably, he wasn’t added to the 40 man to help out the bullpen in September. Maybe the Cubs know something that we don’t about him, but a reliever with those kinds of numbers at AAA is sure to be snatched up in the rule 5 if not protected.

Prediction: Added to 40-man

Duane Underwood Jr., RHP
2016 Team: Arizona Cubs (Rookie), South Bend Cubs (A), Myrtle Beach Pelicans (A+), Tennessee Smokies (AA)
Underwood Jr. was a 2nd round pick in 2012 and has been one of the Cubs best pitching prospects ever since. He really struggled in 2016, both with injuries and performance. The right-hander has a really intimidating fastball that reached the upper 90s at times in 2016. The secondary pitchers still haven’t developed as many have hoped, but he remains a quality arm in the Cubs system. He began the fall in the Arizona Fall League, but was recently removed from the Mesa roster after struggling to get hitters out. Underwood Jr. has the type of prospect pedigree and the raw stuff that would make it easy for a team to take him in the rule 5 draft. If the Cubs hope to keep Underwood Jr. in the organization, they’ll likely have to add him to the 40-man.

Prediction: Added to 40-man

There you have it. I predict the Cubs will add five players to the 40-man roster ahead of Friday’s deadline. Those guys are John Andreoli, Victor Caratini, Jack Leathersich, Armando Rivero and Duane Underwood Jr. With so much talent still in the organization, the Cubs stand to lose a guy or two in the rule 5 draft, but with the organizational depth they possess, nobody at risk is someone they can’t stand to lose.

Lead photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire—USA Today Sports

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1 comment on “Rule 5 Draft Preview: Who will the Cubs protect?”

hvaughn

Great write-up. Tough to argue with your selections. I’d almost like to see Rivero go to another team to see if the Cubs were hiding that he transmogrifies into a sea slug if placed on an ML mound. I wonder if the Cubs versatility would allow them to stash a high upside Rule 5 arm at the back of their bullpen?

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