Opening Day Recap: Cardinals 4, Cubs 3

The first 2016 Cubs game that I had the honor of recapping altered the course of the Cubs’ season dramatically: Kyle Schwarber went down with a torn ACL, and I attempted to imbue the moment and its consequences with dramatic, biblical weight.

From that point on, there was little that could slow the Cubs on their march to 103 wins. Tonight, the Cubs began that march again, this time as victors returning to bask in their heroic achievement (although, unlike those of the Romans, the Gateway Arch was not likely constructed to celebrate these heroes’ victories).

What You Need to Know: Tonight, it looked as though Jon Lester was shouldering a weight similar to the one to which I’ve already alluded. The lefty labored into the sixth inning, allowing only a run but failing to command his breaking pitches. Dexter Fowler, The One That Got Away, scored St. Louis’s first run on a sacrifice fly. Carlos Martinez, the newly minted ace for the Cardinals, struck out ten Cubs and walked not one. He tried his damndest to hand the Cubs their first defeat of the season, but Willson Contreras launched the club’s first homer of the year with flair in the ninth to tie the game. Randal Grichuk took the circuitous route to stardom, though, with a home run and a walk-off single to finish off Opening Day 2017.

Next Level: There’s not much to say about the Cubs’ offensive performance—Martinez was simply dominant, and the hitters will undoubtedly rack up some crooked numbers soon. Let’s instead discuss the night’s slate of pitching performances, which I think, as much as anything from the first game of the season can be, are instructive.

Lester threw a grand total of three innings to Willson Contreras last season. Lester’s chemistry with the young backstop was one of the offseason’s few unresolved issues, and I argued that Contreras has a good skill set and personality to tandem with the veteran lefty. Contreras’s control of the running game mitigates Lester’s lack of defensive profundity, but his framing ability and his rapport with the temperamental Lester were works in progress. Tonight, the latter was on display: Lester appeared frustrated at times, as he left curveballs up in the zone and generally struggled to get through five innings. It’s also those scenarios in which David Ross knew whether to calm Lester down or fire him up to get him out of jams.

Following Lester were Carl Edwards, Jr., and Koji Uehara, the latter in his Cubs debut. Both pitchers worked their ways into some tight spots with walks and fielder’s choices, but ultimately emerged unscathed. That Joe Maddon tapped these two is possibly indicative of future usage patterns. Uehara, who some speculated would be more of a setup man for closer Wade Davis, will likely get middle innings work, and Edwards could emerge as the fireman.

Pedro Strop coughed up a two-run homer to Randal Grichuk, and Mike Montgomery worked himself into knots in the bottom of the ninth before loading the bases and surrendering to Grichuk a walk-off single to deep left.

How Maddon configures this revamped bullpen will be a secondary drama to how he manipulates the daily lineup and defense, but it will likely have much larger effects on the outcomes of games.

Top Play (WPA): After a frustrating end to the eighth inning, about which you’ll read below, the Cubs’ hitters put some pressure on Oh due to some luck. Oh plunked Ben Zobrist promptly to begin the inning, and Addison Russell struck out on a 3-2 pitch. With outs dwindling fast, Jason Heyward walked up to face Oh. The night’s center fielder tapped a roller to the right side of the field, which first baseman Matt Carpenter failed to react to quickly enough, resulting in a safe single for the headfirst-sliding Heyward.

Them’s the breaks, though, and Carpenter’s mental lapse loomed large. After falling behind 0-2, Willson Contreras socked a looping three-run home run into the leftfield bleachers with a slightly off-balance swing, tying the game (+.363).

Bottom Plays (WPA): If someone tells you that the Cubs didn’t hit with runners in scoring position, please run in the opposite direction. It’s the first game of the season, and this team is good offensively.

That being said… the Cubs squandered a well put together inning in the eighth. Following a pair of singles by Contreras and Javier Baez, sandwiching a Tommy La Stella foul pop up, Kyle Schwarber stepped in to face Cardinals closer Seung-Hwan Oh. With a single and a double under his belt already, Schwarber looked every bit as comfortable in the box as he did in November, staring down the world’s best relievers in the World Series.

Schwarber flailed at two sliders from Oh, the second swing bringing him down to his knee, but then worked the count to full before Oh nicked Chicago’s Large Adult Son with a pitch (+.138). That loaded the bases and gave the Cubs a nearly even chance to win the game after trailing since the third.

As we know, though, the run was not realized. Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo—precisely the guys you want at the plate with the bases loaded and the game hanging in the balance—both flied to right, ending the Cubs’ threat (-.174 and -.175, respectively). Martinez, having left the game with two runners on in the inning, escaped with a victory to show for his sterling performance.

The Grichuk game-ender was the worst play by WPA for the Cubs on the night (-.343), but the eighth inning failure to score was the pivotal moment.

Vengeance will have to wait; the customary day off after Opening Day comes on Monday. The Cubs strut back into Busch on Tuesday night, head held not a hair lower, to continue their title defense.

Lead photo courtesy Jeff Curry—USA Today Sports