I Can’t Help Falling In Love With Ian Happ

It’s a tendency of every fanbase—nothing unique to those on the North Side—to want to cling to every top prospect within the organization, regardless of the potential prize associated with surrendering one or many of them. Even if one could make the argument that it’s a tendency that just happens to be at least slightly more apparent with Cubs fans, it’s easy to imagine that many had already accepted the fact that Ian Happ would not be an impact Major Leaguer with the organization.

With the Cubs in need of young, controllable pitching, Happ represented one of the top pieces available for trade, and with the way that he’s mashed at every level, it was hard to imagine that 29 teams in baseball wouldn’t be interested in a package that included the 22-year-old. Now, it’s hard not to be incredibly attracted to the idea of keeping Happ and finding another way to acquire the controlled pitching that the Cubs covet. We’ve become largely accustomed to players forcing their way onto the big league roster and staying there, with Ian Happ serving as the latest example.

The allure surrounding Ian Happ intensified during the spring. In 60 at-bats across the exhibition season, Happ hit .383 while reaching base at a .441 clip. He threw in a 1.191 OPS for good measure, along with a pair of swipes, showcasing a skill set that demonstrated enormous offensive potential. And since his callup on May 13th, Happ has done nothing but continue to signify his authoritative presence at the plate, forcing the Cubs’ hand in what many thought would be not much more than a cup of coffee.

Happ has only appeared at the plate 36 times thus far, but almost every time he’s done so, the results have been impressive. He’s showcased an advanced approach, with 4.03 pitches per plate appearances to this point. He’s been somewhat aggressive, but in that selective-aggressive style that the organization promotes. He’s hacking about 55 percent of the time, but only 35.3 percent on pitches outside of the strike zone. His whiff rate is high, at 18.6, but that’s relatively unsurprising for a player getting his first taste of big league action. So his overall 27.8 percent strikeout rate is nothing to be concerned about, especially when he’s getting his free passes to the tune of a 13.9 percent BB rate thus far.

The approach has paid off in spades, which is reflected in his early contact trends. We’re obviously dealing with a minuscule sample size here, but Happ’s contact numbers are staggeringly gaudy, because that’s the most accurate word choice I could come up with to describe them. Despite the aggression, FanGraphs has Happ making hard contact at a rate of 47.6 percent. He still needs a lot of plate appearances to be among qualifying players, but that would rank him seventh in all of baseball, regardless of position. Conversely, he’s making soft contact at a rate of only 4.8 percent. Sample size be damned, that. is. remarkable.

The bat is obviously there. There’s still a bit of developing to do that will likely lead to an increased contact rate and some other benefits, but it’s been big league ready for a while. Six extra base hits that contribute to a .387 isolated power and the culmination of his early exploits reflected in a .387 TAv tell you really everything you need to know.

And as easy as it is to get caught up in the offensive firepower that he brings, that’s not all that makes him such an intriguing quantity for these Cubs.

The other large part of the equation is his defensive versatility. That’s a thing that’s so important about this Cubs team, with so many players capable of playing so many different positions. Happ is no exception, having appeared at all three outfield positions, including five starts in centerfield, and also having the capability of logging time at second base. There’s also a strong likelihood that the Cubs give him a run, or at least some practice time, at other spots around the infield. Doing so not only increases his appeal to this roster as currently constructed, and represents an opportunity for him to continue to get into the lineup everyday, but would make him that much more appealing in trade talks. Not that that’s a thing that we’d want to happen at this point.

It’s tough to really make a statement about the impact that Happ has had on the Cubs’ offense to this point in such a short time, because it’s been such a short time. But with run totals of 9, 7, 9, and 13 during this last seven-game stretch, it becomes relatively clear. Other bats have come alive, but Happ’s has been a consistent threat for an offense that was sputtering along in a lot of respects. That impact isn’t something we’ll quantify here, but the value of his presence cannot really be overstated.

It’s because of those factors that it’s really difficult to not fall in love with Ian Happ. I had resigned myself to the fact that he’d be gone, as part of some massive package, where he’d spend his prime years playing elsewhere. But the fact is that he’s become an integral part of this Cubs roster in the immediate present. That could change over the course of the year, due to a variety of factors, but with the inconsistencies plaguing the Cubs’ on offense, we’re almost reaching a point where he’s almost too valuable to trade and other options might have to be explored.

Of course, this is baseball and there are very, very few players who aren’t expendable for one reason or another. So that’s not to say that the Cubs shouldn’t trade him in the right situation or won’t. But I’ve already reached a point where I’m kind of curious what type of package the Cubs could drum up without Ian Happ because of his impact bat and ever-increasing versatility. It’s an extraordinary situation in which teams don’t typically find themselves, but the Cubs obviously are in a situation where their rising offensive talent is historically good. If falling in love with a player after less than 40 plate appearances is wrong, I’m not particularly interested in being right.

Lead photo courtesy David Banks—USA Today Sports