What You Need to Know: It was two days shy of the fourth anniversary of this once-famed trade.
The Orioles have acquired RHP Scott Feldman & CA Steve Clevenger from the Cubs in exchange for RHPs Jake Arrieta & Pedro Strop.
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 2, 2013
The erstwhile Cub tossed seven stellar innings against his former club, striking out seven and walking two while throwing 67 of hits 108 pitches for strikes.
Mike Montgomery nearly matched that performance, striking out seven and walking two over 6.2 innings. 62 of his 102 pitches were strikes.
The difference? Montgomery gave up four runs on seven hits, including a pair of doubles and a round-tripper, whereas Feldman scattered just two singles en route to shutout the Cubs lineup.
According to Baseball Savant’s Game Feed, four of the seven hits Montgomery gave up come with a hit probability of 26% or lower, meaning that 3/4 of the time, those would have resulted in outs. Joey Votto’s 4th-inning double, in particular, would have been an out 92 percent of the time. Even the subsequent Adam Duval three-run home run, which would eventually become the difference in the game, albeit barrelled, came with a hit probability of 65 percent.
Things just didn’t go the Cubs’ way.
The Next Level: As Len Kasper mentioned on the broadcast, it was the first time the Cubs were shutout by the Reds since September 11, 2013, the year in which the 66-96 Cubs sunk in the bottom of the NL Central standings and the 93-69 Reds played in the Wild Card Game. Anthony Rizzo is the only Cub who played both in that game and today. Zack Cozart and Votto were only participants from Cincinnati to play in both games.
Top Play (WPA): Nothing bumped the Cub’s win probability up more than Javy Baez’s lead-off walk in the third inning (+.040). It was that kind of night.
Bottom Play (WPA): The aforementioned Duvall three-run shot, his 19th of the season (-.186), again, was enough to sink the Chicago Ship.
Lead photo courtesy David Kohl—USA Today Sports